Shows / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Each day, Lucas and Luna sit down with the latest macro data to decode what it actually means for markets, businesses, and your portfolio. They don't just report the CPI print or the Fed's dot plot — they argue about what the numbers imply for the yield curve, corporate borrowing costs, and the probability of a soft landing. Lucas pushes for historical context: how does today's inflation compare to the 1970s, and what does the Taylor rule suggest now? Luna counters with sector-level evidence…
Episodes
The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve PolicyJob Openings Surge While Hiring Stays Sluggish
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data showing job openings surged to 7.6 million in April while hiring remains…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The 159 Million Jobs Mystery Why Hiring Feels So Hard
The US economy has 159 million payroll jobs and 7.6 million open positions, yet the unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent and job seekers are struggling. Lucas…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Job Openings Are Surging While Hiring Stays Sluggish
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna take a deep dive into one of the most confusing signals in the current economy: job openings are spiking, but…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed New Chairman and the Breakeven Signal
Lucas and Luna unpack Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chairman on June 18, 2026, and what his approach signals for monetary policy. They zero in on the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The 2.26 Percent Breakeven That Has the Fed Second-Guessing
This episode dives into one of the most telling signals the bond market is sending right now: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has dropped to 2.26 percent…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What Rising Job Openings Tell the Fed About Inflation
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising April JOLTS report, which showed job openings jumping to 7.6 million from 6.9…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The 10-Year Breakeven Is Dropping What the Bond Market Is Saying
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has fallen to 2.29 percent, its lowest in months, even as the consumer price index sits at 4.2 percent year-over-year and…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Bond Market Is Betting on a Fed Pivot Here
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the bond market's recent rally and what it tells us about where the Fed is heading. With the 10-year Treasury…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What Falling Bond Yields Say About Recession Odds
With the S&P 500 hitting a fresh all-time high and the ten-year Treasury yield dropping 2.6% in a week, markets are sending two contradictory messages about…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Stuck at 3.6 Percent with Inflation at 4.2
The Federal Reserve faces a tough spot: the fed funds rate sits at 3.6 percent while inflation runs at 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the real rate…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed's Real Rate Trap as Inflation Stays Sticky
Lucas and Luna dig into the contradiction at the heart of Fed policy in mid-2026: the federal funds rate sits at 3.63 percent, but with CPI running at 4.2…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Bond Market Is Sending a Contradictory Signal on Growth
Episode 54 of The Macro Memo tackles a surprising disconnect in the bond market: the yield curve has been steepening sharply this spring, but the steepening is…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Stuck Between Inflation and Rate Cuts
Lucas and Luna dig into the Federal Reserve's current bind: inflation running at 4.2 percent annually, the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, and…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Consumer Spending Outruns Inflation and Confuses the Fed
Lucas and Luna dig into the widening gap between consumer confidence and actual spending. With inflation at 4.2% and real GDP growth just 1.6%, Americans are…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Surge in Job Openings That the Fed Cannot Ignore
The April JOLTS report showed job openings jumping to 7.62 million, a massive rebound from March's 6.89 million. Lucas and Luna break down what this means…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed Faces a 3.6 Percent Fed Funds Rate While Inflation Runs at 4.2 Percent
In Episode 50 of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine the growing disconnect between the Federal Reserve's policy rate at 3.62 percent and headline…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How the ECB Rate Hike Reshapes the Fed's Calculus
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026 — its first since 2023 — and what…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Wholesale Inflation Is the Fed's Real Headache Now
The May CPI print hit 4.2%, but the bigger story might be the wholesale inflation surprise. Producer prices rose 1.1% in May, driven by a surge in energy costs…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Wholesale Inflation Is Reshaping the Fed's Next Move
This episode of The Macro Memo drills into the wholesale inflation surprise from May 2026 — the Producer Price Index came in at 1.1 percent, driven largely by…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The ECB Rate Hike and Why It Matters for US Inflation
On June 11, 2026, the European Central Bank hiked interest rates for the first time since 2023, a direct response to energy price surges linked to the Iran…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Consumer Price Index Hit 4.2 Percent What It Means for the Fed
Consumer prices rose 4.2% annually in May, the highest reading in three years. Lucas and Luna break down the CPI print released this morning, what's…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Consumer Confidence and Spending Are Decoupling
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine the growing disconnect between consumer confidence and actual spending. With the New York Fed's…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Manufacturing Recession That Never Ended
While headlines focus on a tight labor market and sticky services inflation, U.S. manufacturing has been contracting for 23 consecutive months. Lucas and Luna…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Hidden Job Market Signal in Surging Part-Time Work
While the unemployment rate holds at 4.3 percent and job openings have rebounded sharply to 7.6 million, a quieter trend is reshaping the labor market: the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Yield Curve Is Uninverting Without a Recession
The yield curve has been inverted for nearly three years, the longest stretch in modern history. Now it's beginning to steepen again, but GDP is still…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Household Financial Anxiety Hit a Four-Year High
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking new data point: the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations shows household…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Wages Are Rising While Inflation Stays Sticky
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine a confusing signal in the latest economic data: average hourly earnings are up to $37.50…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What the Yield Curve Inversion Says About Recession Risk Now
Long-term interest rates are rising even as the Fed holds short rates steady. The yield curve has inverted for over two years, but stock markets are near…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The May Jobs Report Numbers Markets Missed
Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 jobs report data, digging into the payrolls number that beat expectations and the long-term unemployment surge that…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What the May Jobs Report Will Reveal About the Labor Market
With the May jobs report dropping tomorrow, Lucas and Luna break down what the data is likely to show and why markets might be misreading the trend. They focus…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging With a 4.3 Percent Jobless Rate
The unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, historically low. But beneath that headline number, long-term unemployment—people out of work for 27 weeks or…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The May Jobs Report Preview What Markets Are Pricing Wrong
With the May jobs report due Friday and long-term unemployment rising, Lucas and Luna dig into the specific disconnect between headline payrolls and the hidden…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging What It Signals
Lucas and Luna unpack a worrying trend in the labor market: long-term unemployment—people out of work for 27 weeks or more—is rising even as headline jobless…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The JOLTS Surge That Changes Everything About the Labor Market
Job openings in the U.S. surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years. Lucas and Luna dig into what this JOLTS number really means—why…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Job Openations Surge That Changes Everything
The JOLTS data for April 2026 showed a massive surge in job openings to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years. But that headline number tells a…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Job Openations Surged While Unemployment Stayed Flat
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dissect the surprising April JOLTS data showing job openings surged to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years, even as…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Job Openations Surged While Unemployment Stayed Flat
The April JOLTS report showed job openings jumping to 7.62 million, the highest in nearly two years. But the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The JOLTS Blip That Changes the Rate-Cut Timeline
April's job openings surged 10.6 percent to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years, just as the Fed holds rates at 3.62 percent. Lucas and Luna dig…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed's 3.62 Percent Rate Trap and What It Means for You
The Federal Reserve has cut rates to 3.62 percent, but core inflation is still sticky at 3.3 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the paradox: why…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The 450 Dollar Iran War Tax on Every Household
Lucas and Luna unpack the real economic cost of the Iran conflict: an extra $450 per household on gas and energy bills in 2026. They trace how this…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Hidden Cost of the Iran War in Your Utility Bill
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna break down how the Iran war is driving up energy costs far beyond the gas pump. With the 10-year breakeven…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Americans Are Saving Less Despite Higher Incomes
The U.S. personal saving rate dropped to 3.2% in April 2026, even as disposable income rose 0.4%. Lucas and Luna drill into the paradox: why households are…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Job Openings Are Falling While Unemployment Stays Low
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data showing job openings have dropped to 6.87 million, the lowest since early 2021, while the unemployment rate holds…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Housing Inflation Isnt Going Away
Housing costs are the biggest component of core inflation, and they are not cooling as fast as the Fed expected. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Inflation That Keeps Marching Higher
On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect between markets' optimism and the persistent core inflation data. With the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Core PCE Sticky at 3.3 Percent Matters for Rate Cuts
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core PCE — came in at 3.3% annualized in April, exactly as expected. But in this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Cutting Rates Despite Sticky Core Inflation
The Federal Reserve faces a tough choice in May 2026: core PCE inflation is running at 3.3 percent, but the real economy is softening. Lucas and Luna examine…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed's Two Inflation Problem That Markets Are Missing
Lucas and Luna break down why the Federal Reserve is stuck between two different inflation stories—sticky core services versus cooling goods—and how that split…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Hidden Inflation in Your Car Insurance Bill
Lucas and Luna unpack a surprising driver of persistent inflation: auto insurance premiums. With CPI still running hot at 3.4% year-over-year, insurance costs…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Two Speed Economy That Has the Fed Confused
Consumer sentiment is at a record low, yet small caps are rallying and GDP is growing. Lucas and Luna unpack the divergence between how Americans feel and how…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Dividend Pause That Tells Us Everything
Lucas and Luna dig into the quiet but powerful signal flashing from corporate dividend announcements. With the S&P 500 hitting 7,519 and small caps surging 6%…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Consumer Sentiment Paradox Markets Are Misreading
Consumer sentiment hit a record low in May 2026, yet the S&P 500 is trading above 7,500 and small caps are surging. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Yield Curve Un-inversion That Has Everyone Confused
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch on record. Now it's suddenly steepening, with the 10-year Treasury yield…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low Despite Strong Economy
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. just hit a record low — even though the job market is solid, GDP is growing, and stocks are near all-time highs. Lucas and Luna…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Yield Curve Is Flashing a Different Signal Now
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but something shifted this week. Lucas and Luna break down the specific move in the 2-year versus 10-year…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Small Cap Rally That Markets Are Ignoring
Episode 10 of The Macro Memo digs into the small cap surge that has gone almost unnoticed as big tech stalls. Lucas and Luna examine the Russell 2000's…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Small Caps Are Surging While Big Tech Stalls
The Russell 2000 just jumped 3.4 percent in a week while the S&P 500 eked out only 1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the data to ask whether this is a…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Two Percent GDP Trap That Has the Fed Stuck
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest GDP and CPI data to understand why the Fed is stuck at 3.65 percent interest rates even as inflation stays above target…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Blue-Collar Workers Are Winning the AI Economy
Lucas and Luna examine how the AI-driven economy is reshaping opportunities for blue-collar workers. With the S&P 500 at 7,473 and the Russell 2000 up 3.4% in…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low as Iran War Drives Inflation Fears
Lucas and Luna break down the stunning May consumer sentiment reading — a record low that caught even the most bearish economists off guard. They connect the…