Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What the Yield Curve Inversion Says About Recession Risk Now
Long-term interest rates are rising even as the Fed holds short rates steady. The yield curve has inverted for over two years, but stock markets are near highs. In this episode, Lucas and Luna sift through the data on what the bond market is actually signaling. They look at the spread between the 10-year Treasury at 4.54 percent and the 2-year at 4.28 percent, the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.62 percent, and why this persistent inversion feels different from past cycles. The conversation then turns to what it means for borrowing costs, corporate investment, and whether recession warnings have…
The skinny
The skinny isn't ready yet — notes appear once the transcript is processed.