Shows / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Each day, Lucas and Luna sit down with the latest macro data to decode what it actually means for markets, businesses, and your portfolio. They don't just report the CPI print or the Fed's dot plot — they argue about what the numbers imply for the yield curve, corporate borrowing costs, and the probability of a soft landing. Lucas pushes for historical context: how does today's inflation compare to the 1970s, and what does the Taylor rule suggest now? Luna counters with sector-level evidence…
Episodes
The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve PolicyWhy China's Trade Surplus Is Changing The Game
China’s goods surplus has officially topped one trillion dollars for the second consecutive year, a structural shift that is reshaping global trade dynamics…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why The Fed Is Watching Wholesale Prices
With October jobs data showing 165,000 new hires and a dip in unemployment to 4.1 percent, the market is focused on wage growth. But Lucas and Luna argue the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why October Jobs Data Masks Wage Stagnation
Lucas and Luna dig into the October 2026 jobs report, where nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 and unemployment fell to 4.1 percent. But beneath the headline…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Strong Jobs Hide Weak Wages
The October jobs report showed 165,000 new positions and a 4.1% unemployment rate, yet average hourly earnings growth has stalled. Lucas and Luna explore how…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Strong Jobs Mask A Quiet Wage Freeze
The October jobs report added 165,000 positions with unemployment falling to 4.1%, yet average hourly earnings barely budged. Lucas and Luna dissect the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed Funds Rate And The Hidden Cost Of Waiting
With the Federal Reserve effective rate holding steady at 3.88 percent as of November fifth, 2026, we examine why the central bank is resisting further hikes…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Silent Crisis Of Wage Stagnation Amid Job Growth
With real GDP accelerating to 3.4 percent and job openings hitting 7.5 million, the American labor market looks robust on paper. Yet average hourly earnings…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Labor Hoarding Trap Distorting Wages
With Q3 real GDP jumping to three point four percent while the unemployment rate ticks up to four point two percent, Lucas and Luna dissect the paradox of…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Hidden Tax Of Labor Hoarding
With US real GDP growth hitting 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026 while unemployment sits at 4.2%, we are seeing a paradox: companies are keeping workers they…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Silent Crisis of Zero Firing Rates
With real GDP growth hitting 3.4 percent in the third quarter, the US economy looks robust on paper, but a deeper structural issue is emerging: companies are…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Hidden Cost Of America's Labor Hoarding
We examine why the US labor market remains tight despite cooling job openings, focusing on the structural shift toward 'labor hoarding' and its…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why US GDP Growth Is Hiding A Weakness Trap
Third-quarter U.S. GDP surprised to the upside at an annualized 3.4 percent growth rate, yet core inflation and wage data tell a different story. Lucas and…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Third Quarter GDP Surprise
The third quarter U.S. GDP growth hit a better-than-expected 3.4 percent annualized rate, driven by resilient consumer spending despite rising inflation…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why The Low Firing Rate Paradox Is Distorting Wages
With jobless claims near historic lows and firing rates at record troughs, the labor market is experiencing a unique structural lock. We break down how this…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Silent Crisis of Zero Firing Rates
With jobless claims near historic lows and the unemployment rate ticking to four point two percent, the US labor market is experiencing a dangerous form of…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Hidden Tax Of Low Firing Rates
Why are jobless claims hitting historic lows while unemployment creeps up? Lucas and Luna dissect the 'low-fire rate paradox' dominating October…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Low Fire Rate Paradox Explained
With jobless claims hitting lows not seen since the nineteen sixties and the unemployment rate ticking up to four point two percent, the US labor market is…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Low Fire Rate Paradox Explained
Why initial jobless claims are hitting their lowest levels since the nineteen sixties while wage growth remains subdued. Lucas and Luna break down the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Paradox of Low Jobless Claims and Wage Growth
With the unemployment rate ticking to four point two percent but jobless claims hitting multi-decade lows, the US labor market is sending mixed signals. We…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Paradox of Low Fire Rates and Labor Shortages
Lucas and Luna dissect the strange disconnect in today's labor market where initial jobless claims are near historic lows yet unemployment ticks up to…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How UK Inflation Shocked The Global Markets
Lucas and Luna dissect the unexpected jump in UK inflation to three point five percent, analyzing how this shift challenges the global narrative of cooling…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed's October Rate Hike Surprise
With the Federal Reserve meeting this week, markets are bracing for a hold, but former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh suggests a surprise rate hike is possible. We…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Quiet Crisis Of US Fiscal Deficits
With the U.S. budget deficit swelling to nearly two trillion dollars for fiscal 2026, Lucas and Luna examine why this number matters more than any single…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Wholesale Prices Are Breaking The Inflation Narrative
Lucas and Luna dig into the September wholesale price data, which jumped 6.3 percent annually, the largest gain since 2022. With the S&P 500 down nearly two…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Wholesale Prices Are Screaming About Sticky Inflation
The headline this week wasn't the soft CPI print but the 6.3 percent annual jump in wholesale prices for September, the biggest gain since 2022. Lucas and…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Wholesale Prices Are Screaming About Sticky Inflation
Lucas and Luna dig into the September wholesale price data showing a six-point-three percent annual jump, the biggest surge since twenty twenty-two. With core…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why The Fed Funds Rate Matters More Than The 10 Year Yield
With the ten-year Treasury yield hovering near five point two four percent and the S&P 500 flirting with seven thousand eight hundred, investors are fixated on…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Sticky Price Illusion In The September Data
Lucas and Luna dissect the gap between headline inflation and the reality of everyday prices in early October 2026. With core PCE holding at 130.5 and job…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Tariff Inflation Trap Hitting Everyday Prices
Lucas and Luna unpack why inflation on many everyday items remains stubbornly high despite broader cooling trends, tracing the specific impact of recent…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Inflation Fears Are Surging Despite Cooling Data
With the S&P 500 holding near 7,816 and the ten-year Treasury yield dipping to 5.24 percent, markets are signaling calm even as consumer anxiety spikes. This…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Tariffs Are Rewriting The Inflation Rulebook
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine a surprising shift in the inflation landscape. New analysis from the New York Federal Reserve…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why The Fed's Rate Hikes Are Sticking
With the Federal Reserve Funds rate holding at three point seven five percent and core PCE inflation ticking up to one point two percent year-over-year, the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The September Jobs Report Reality Check
Lucas and Luna dissect the September labor market data that signals a genuine cooling rather than just noise. With unemployment ticking up to four point two…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Demographic Cliff Hitting Western Economies
Western populations are beginning to shrink, creating a structural headwind for public finances and labor markets that no amount of monetary policy can fix…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why The Labor Market Is Hiding Its Weakness
The September jobs report showed only twenty-nine thousand new positions, yet the headline numbers look deceptively calm. Lucas and Luna unpack why the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Gender Gap In The September Jobs Report
September’s jobs report revealed a stark divergence: private sector hiring slowed significantly, yet the unemployment rate ticked up only slightly to 4.2…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Productivity Paradox Inflation
Why core inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's target despite slowing growth and a cooling labor market. We examine the disconnect…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Hidden Tax Of Global Debt Saturation
With global debt topping three hundred sixty-five trillion dollars, the sheer weight of borrowing is reshaping interest rate expectations. Lucas and Luna…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Bond Market Silent Rebellion Against The Fed
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to five point three percent and global debt hitting three hundred sixty-five trillion dollars, a structural shift is…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Real Cost of Global Debt Saturation
With global debt surpassing 365 trillion dollars and U.S. real GDP growth slowing to 1.5 percent, the macro environment is shifting from growth-driven to…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Bond Market's Silent Rebellion Against The Fed
With the ten-year Treasury yield surging to five point two three percent in late September twenty twenty six, bond markets are signaling a loss of faith in the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Bond Market Silent Rebellion Against The Fed
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing past five percent while the S&P 500 holds steady, we explore why bond investors are quietly rejecting the Federal…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Bond Yields Are Defying The Fed
With the ten-year Treasury yield hitting five point one eight percent in late September twenty twenty six, the bond market is sending a clear signal that…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Global Debt Trap Behind Rising Yields
With global debt hitting three hundred sixty five trillion dollars and the ten-year Treasury yield climbing toward five point two percent, we examine the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Silent Tax of Rising Borrowing Costs
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing above five percent and the Dow struggling to keep pace, we examine how elevated borrowing costs are quietly reshaping…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Silent Squeeze Of Rising Borrowing Costs
With the ten-year Treasury yield climbing above five percent and short-term rates holding near four, we explore how higher borrowing costs are quietly…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Quiet Crisis Of Falling Consumer Sentiment
Why American consumers feel poorer despite a solid economy and rising GDP. We unpack the Goldman Sachs report on the 'happiness gap,' examining how…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Bond Market's Silent Rebellion Against The Fed
While the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at a three point six three percent effective rate, the bond market is quietly signaling a different…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Paradox of Weak Growth and High Inflation
Lucas and Luna unpack the disorienting economic landscape of late September 2026, where nominal GDP is rising but real growth has stalled at one point five…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Happiness Gap Why Sentiment Lags Growth
August payrolls added strong jobs and the dollar holds steady near three point nine percent, yet consumer sentiment is plunging. We look at why Goldman Sachs…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed's Silent Tax on Consumer Credit
We drill into the hidden cost of the current rate environment: revolving consumer credit. With the federal funds rate sitting at three point six three percent…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed's Shadow Metric That Changes Everything
Lucas and Luna break down why the Federal Reserve is watching the shadow price of money more than inflation. With the ten-year Treasury yield holding near four…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Oil Shocks Rewrite Inflation Rules
Transport companies are sounding alarms on fuel prices while households face a one thousand seven hundred dollar bill from the Iran war’s economic ripple…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Sticky Trap of Services Inflation
With the S&P 500 down nearly one percent this week and the ten-year Treasury yield holding steady at five percent, the market is bracing for a Federal Reserve…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Real Wages Are Finally Catching Up
With the unemployment rate holding at 4.10 percent and core CPI rising to 337.8 in August, the narrative that workers are losing ground is shifting. Lucas and…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Sticky Wage Inflation Trap
With August CPI coming in at 334.1 and core measures refusing to budge, the Fed faces a new dilemma: wage growth is outpacing productivity gains, keeping…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Wage-Inflation Gap Squeezing American Paychecks
Inflation is outpacing wage growth in August, creating a real income squeeze for Americans. Lucas and Luna break down the divergence between core CPI at 337.8…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Services Inflation Is The Fed's Real Problem
With the August CPI ticking up to 334.1 and core PCE stubborn at 130.7, the Federal Reserve faces a tricky decision this week. Lucas and Luna dissect why goods…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Trade War Inflation Shock
Lucas and Luna dissect the immediate economic shock of the U.S. import ban on Canadian goods, analyzing how retaliatory tariffs and rising wholesale prices are…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed's Hidden Metric That Changes Everything
We dig into the Treasury General Account and why its fluctuations matter more than you think for market stability. With the TGA balance shifting, we explore…