Shows / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Each day, Lucas and Luna sit down with the latest macro data to decode what it actually means for markets, businesses, and your portfolio. They don't just report the CPI print or the Fed's dot plot — they argue about what the numbers imply for the yield curve, corporate borrowing costs, and the probability of a soft landing. Lucas pushes for historical context: how does today's inflation compare to the 1970s, and what does the Taylor rule suggest now? Luna counters with sector-level evidence…
Episodes
The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve PolicyThe Hidden Cost of Japan's Currency Intervention
Japan just burned through eighty billion dollars in foreign reserves to defend the yen, a staggering move that signals deep anxiety about import inflation and…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Sticky Services Inflation Is Keeping Rates High
With the August unemployment rate holding steady at four point one percent and core PCE inflation ticking up to one point three percent, the Federal Reserve…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Silent Tax of Sticky Core Inflation
With core PCE holding at 130.7 in July and the Fed Funds rate flat at 3.63 percent, the economy is stuck in a high-cost equilibrium. Lucas and Luna dissect why…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Hidden Trap of Rising Nominal GDP
Lucas and Luna dissect the divergence between real and nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026. With nominal GDP hitting 32.5 trillion while real growth stalled at 1.5…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Gender Gap in August Payrolls
August payrolls added 162,000 jobs, beating expectations and keeping the unemployment rate flat at 4.1 percent. But look closer at the composition: women…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why The Fed Is Ignoring The Labor Market Right Now
With the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent and nonfarm payrolls quietly shrinking, Lucas and Luna unpack why the Federal Reserve is looking past the jobs…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Real Cost of AI Energy Consumption
We look at the hidden energy tax on artificial intelligence. With power grids straining under data center demand, how does this impact consumer prices and…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Wage Growth Is Fueling Sticky Inflation
With core PCE still rising and job openings climbing despite soft payrolls, Lucas and Luna dissect the disconnect between cooling GDP growth and persistent…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why India's 7.8 Percent Growth Is a Double-Edged Sword
India's economy just grew 7.8% in the April-to-June quarter, beating every forecast. Lucas and Luna break down what that number really means — and why…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Splitting From the Markets This Season
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but telling divergence: the Fed's own preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Watches the Labor Force Participation Rate
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, core PCE, came in at 3.3% annually for July — still above target. But beneath that headline number, a quieter story is…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How the Fed Reads the PCE Deflator
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge: the PCE price index. With July core PCE coming…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Ignores the Yield Curve Now
Despite the S&P 500 sitting near record highs and the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent, the yield curve has inverted for months. Lucas and Luna dig into why…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed's New Favorite Inflation Gauge Is the PCE
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack why the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Watches the 10-Year Breakeven Rate Now
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack why the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—currently at 2.32 percent—has become the Fed's favored…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Treasury General Account Could Calm the Bond Market
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising tool Treasury Secretary Bessent might use to calm the bond market: the nearly one…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Watches the 10-Year Breakeven Rate
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a number that doesn't make headlines but quietly shapes every Fed decision: the 10-year…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Ignores the Yield Curve Now
Lucas and Luna unpack why the yield curve's inversion in 2026 is no longer the recession signal it used to be. With the ten-year Treasury at 4.74 percent…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Ignores the Record $40 Trillion Debt
The U.S. government debt has just passed $40 trillion, more than doubling in a decade. As Treasury Secretary Bessent declares the deficit has peaked, the Fed…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The $40 Trillion Debt and Why the Fed Ignores It
The U.S. national debt just crossed $40 trillion, doubling in a decade. But the Federal Reserve, focused on inflation and employment, largely ignores it. In…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Factory Weakness Is Skewing the Fed's Next Move
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but telling signal in the latest economic data: manufacturing is stumbling while services hold up. They trace…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How the Fed Reads the Budget Deficit Surge
The July budget deficit hit its highest level since March 2021, yet the Fed seems unfazed. In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack why the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Watches the Budget Deficit
On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine a paradox: inflation is cooling, the Fed is on hold, and yet the yield curve is steepening as the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Ignores the Budget Deficit's Record Surge
On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the July budget deficit — the largest since March 2021 — and ask a simple question: why doesn't…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the July Jobs Report Signals a Fed Shift
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the July jobs report and why it's the Fed's toughest puzzle yet. Unemployment fell to 4.1…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Unemployment Fell While Payrolls Shrank
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet anomaly in the July jobs report: the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent even as…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Hidden Cost of Cheap Lettuce
Lettuce prices just crashed to record lows, and that's not the good-news story it sounds like. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the economics of…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Lettuce Prices Are Crashing While Inflation Sticks
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking anomaly in this morning's CPI report: lettuce prices plunged at a record pace…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the July Jobs Report Shook the Fed
The July jobs report showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs, the first negative print in years. Lucas and Luna dig into what this means for the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why July Jobs Report Signals a Fed Shift
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dissect the surprising July jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, the first negative print in…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the July Jobs Report Is the Fed's Toughest Puzzle Yet
The July jobs report showed a surprise loss of 23,000 jobs — the first outright decline in years. Lucas and Luna dig into what this actually means for the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the July Jobs Report Is the Fed's Toughest Puzzle Yet
The July jobs report delivered a rare surprise: the US economy lost 23,000 jobs, even as the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Watches the Jobs Report So Closely
When the July jobs report hit the wires on August 7, 2026, the headline number was a surprise: the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, the first negative print in…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Watching Softer Job Openings
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest JOLTS report showing job openings at 7.359 million in June, down from 7.537 million, and…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Warsh Navigates Fed Pressure as Inflation Cools
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the pressure mounting on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as inflation cools to multi-year lows while…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Watches Core PCE While CPI Cools
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but crucial divergence in the inflation data: headline CPI and the PCE price index are…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Stuck Between Falling Inflation and Manufacturing Angst
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a strange moment for the Federal Reserve: inflation has cooled to its lowest in years, but a new…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Watching China's Factory Slump
On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest China factory activity data and what a surprise contraction in July means for global…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening While the Fed Holds Firm
On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking market signal: the ten-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.74 percent while the two-year…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why GDP Growth Slowed but Jobs Stay Strong
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the strange divergence in the latest US economic data. Real GDP growth dropped to an annualized 1.5%…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Bond Markets Expect Higher Inflation Despite Cooling CPI
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to 2.26%, even as the latest CPI reading fell to 332.6. What does the bond market see that consumer prices…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is on Hold While Singapore Tightens
In a surprise move on July 27, Singapore's central bank tightened monetary policy, warning that rising oil prices could reignite inflation. But the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Kevin Warsh's Three Keywords Signal Fed Policy
Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has zeroed in on three specific phrases that market watchers use to decode the central bank's next move. On this episode of The…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Jobless Claims Hit 187k and Yields Still Fell
Initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000, the lowest in decades, yet 10-year Treasury yields fell 1.2% over the same week. Lucas and Luna dig into the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Core PCE Is Sticky While CPI Cools
Headline CPI fell in June, but the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE index—actually rose to 130.1 from 129.67, an annualized pace near 4…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Inflation Divergence the Fed Can't Ignore
Episode 140 of The Macro Memo explores the puzzling divergence between the Consumer Price Index, which fell in June, and the Fed's preferred PCE measure…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Bond Markets Are Ignoring Tariff Inflation Threats
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising disconnect: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has fallen to 2.26%, its lowest in…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What the Steep Yield Curve Is Telling the Fed
The yield curve is no longer inverted — it's steep, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.68% and short-term rates near 3.8%. Lucas and Luna unpack what this…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Lowest Jobless Claims in Years Aren't Worrying the Fed
Initial jobless claims just dropped to 187,000, the lowest in years. Normally, that signals an overheating economy. But the Fed isn't flinching. In this…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The GDP Rebound That Has the Fed Thinking Twice
Episode 136 of The Macro Memo. Real GDP just surged to 2.1 percent annualised, up from 0.5 percent last quarter. Lucas and Luna unpack what drove the rebound —…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Holds Steady as Jobs Boom and Inflation Cools
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest labor market data: initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000, unemployment fell to 4.2 percent, and the Fed is keeping rates…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Job Openings Outpace Hires and Reshape Fed Policy
The U.S. labor market is sending a confusing signal: job openings are rising again, but hiring isn't keeping pace. In this episode of The Macro Memo…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Generic Drug Tariffs Could Reshape Inflation
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dive into the Trump administration's latest proposal to impose tariffs on generic drugs starting in…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How World Cup Spending Skewed US Inflation Data
Lucas and Luna dig into a fresh Fed report showing that World Cup spending gave bars and restaurants a temporary boost, but consumer fundamentals are flashing…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Housing Market Is Mispricing Mortgage Rates
With the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.66% and home prices still elevated, Lucas and Luna unpack a surprising disconnect: mortgage rates are lagging…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Generic Drug Tariffs Could Reshape Inflation
Lucas and Luna dissect the Trump administration's plan to impose tariffs on generic drugs starting in 2028, with a two-year delay to encourage domestic…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Tariffs on Generic Drugs Could Reshape Inflation
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine the potential economic fallout of proposed tariffs on generic drugs, set to begin in 2028. They…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Tracking Chinese Import Prices Again
China's export prices are surging for the first time in years, with import costs from China hitting their highest since 2008. In this episode, Lucas and…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Chinese Import Prices Are Rising Again
Import prices posted a surprise gain in June, with costs of goods from China hitting their highest level since 2008. Lucas and Luna drill into the specific…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Core Inflation Is Sticky But Consumers Are Still Spending
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest CPI and PCE data to understand why core inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's…