Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the July Jobs Report Is the Fed's Toughest Puzzle Yet
The July jobs report delivered a rare surprise: the US economy lost 23,000 jobs, even as the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack what this means for the Federal Reserve's policy path. They dig into the numbers—payrolls slipping to 158.9 million, job openings easing to 7.4 million, and wage growth holding steady at $37.60 an hour—and explain why this mixed picture is exactly what keeps the Fed on hold. They also explore how the bond market is reading the signals, with the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.66 percent and breakevens pointing to modest inflation…
The skinny
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