Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Watches the 10-Year Breakeven Rate Now
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack why the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—currently at 2.32 percent—has become the Fed's favored temperature gauge for inflation expectations. They explore how it's calculated from TIPS versus nominal Treasury yields, why it matters more than the latest CPI print, and what a falling breakeven rate could signal for the Fed's next move. The hosts also examine the role of the Treasury General Account in supporting the bond market, referencing recent headlines about potential bond buybacks. With the Fed funds rate holding at…
The skinny
The skinny isn't ready yet — notes appear once the transcript is processed.