Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Splitting From the Markets This Season
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but telling divergence: the Fed's own preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, is still running at 3.3 percent annually, while the 10-year breakeven rate just ticked down to 2.31 percent. They unpack what that gap signals about the Fed's next move, how the bond market is pricing a different path than the dot plot, and why the recent surge in the S&P 500 to just over 7,700 feels disconnected from the macro data. With unemployment at 4.1 percent and payrolls barely growing, they ask whether the Fed is about to…
The skinny
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