Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Bond Markets Expect Higher Inflation Despite Cooling CPI
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to 2.26%, even as the latest CPI reading fell to 332.6. What does the bond market see that consumer prices aren't capturing? In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the growing disconnect between market-based inflation expectations and official inflation data. With the Fed firmly on hold and the labor market still tight—unemployment at 4.2% and jobless claims at 187,000—we explore whether the bond market is pricing in tariff-driven price pressure, rising oil costs, or a structural shift in inflation dynamics. Recent headlines, from…
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