Shows / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Each day, Lucas and Luna sit down with the latest macro data to decode what it actually means for markets, businesses, and your portfolio. They don't just report the CPI print or the Fed's dot plot — they argue about what the numbers imply for the yield curve, corporate borrowing costs, and the probability of a soft landing. Lucas pushes for historical context: how does today's inflation compare to the 1970s, and what does the Taylor rule suggest now? Luna counters with sector-level evidence…
Episodes
The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve PolicyWhy Wage Growth Hasnt Boosted Consumer Spending as Expected
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzle at the heart of the current economy: average hourly earnings are up to $37.60, yet consumer…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How the World Cup Distorted US Consumer Spending Data
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising detail from the Fed's latest Beige Book: the World Cup gave bars and restaurants a…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Yield Curve Is Un-Inverting and What It Means
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but in recent weeks it has steepened sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.54 percent and the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Import Prices Just Surprised the Market
Episode 122 of The Macro Memo with Fexingo dives into the surprise rise in import prices reported on July 17, 2026. Hosts Lucas and Luna unpack why costs of…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Import Prices Just Surprised the Market
On today's Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising import price data released on July 17 — the first gain in months, with costs from China…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Consumers Are Tapping Credit Cards Again
Consumer spending remains resilient, but there's a shift happening beneath the surface: credit card balances are rising as savings dwindle. Lucas and Luna…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Cutting Despite a Strong Jobs Market
Lucas and Luna break down the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates even as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% and nonfarm payrolls hit a…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Watching Wholesale Prices More Than CPI
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna break down the surprise 0.3 percent drop in wholesale prices reported on July 15, 2026, and what it means for…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Wholesale Prices Just Dropped Unexpectedly
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising 0.3% decline in wholesale prices for June 2026, driven largely by a sharp drop in…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How China Export Prices Are Reshaping Global Inflation
Episode 116 of The Macro Memo examines how weak Chinese producer prices are exporting disinflation to the rest of the world. Lucas and Luna discuss the latest…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Falling Inflation Is Reshaping Consumer Behavior
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine how the latest CPI data—showing a 3.5% annual increase, below expectations—is influencing consumer…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Labor Force Drop Is a Structural Crisis
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest labor force participation rate data, which fell to its lowest level in 50 years outside the Covid era. They explore why…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why China Export Prices Are Driving a Global Disinflation Wave
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine how declining export prices from China are rippling through global inflation dynamics. With…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Funflation Is Reshaping Consumer Habits and Fed Policy
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna tackle the surprising rise of 'funflation' — the phenomenon where at-home entertainment costs have…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Stuck Above 4.5 Percent
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 4.5 percent, with the long bond pushing past 5 percent — levels that were unthinkable just a few years ago…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Stuck Between Sticky Core Inflation and a Softening Jobs Market
In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the Federal Reserve's current policy dilemma using fresh data from July 2026. Core CPI and core PCE have firmed…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the FOMC Is Watching Real Wages More Than Headline CPI
This episode digs into a quiet shift inside the Federal Reserve's decision-making: why the FOMC is paying less attention to headline CPI and more to real…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The ECB Exit Puzzle and What It Means for the Dollar
Lucas and Luna break down why the euro is falling despite the European Central Bank signaling rate cuts could come early. With ECB President Lagarde leaving…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Labor Force Participation Rate Is Plummeting Again
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising drop in the U.S. labor force participation rate, which hit its lowest level since the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Euro Is Falling Despite Higher ECB Rates
Lucas and Luna explore the surprising weakness in the euro during mid-2026, even as the European Central Bank keeps rates elevated and Christine Lagarde hints…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Gold Is Quietly Outperforming Tech Stocks
In this episode of The Macro Memo with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising divergence in 2026: gold is quietly outperforming the tech-heavy NASDAQ…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Small Caps Are Getting Crushed Despite a Strong Economy
Episode 104 of The Macro Memo with Fexingo: The Russell 2000 is down almost 2% over the past five days while the S&P 500 and Dow hover near flat. Lucas and…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why GDP Growth Quietly Outpaced the Headlines
The economy grew at 2.1 percent annualised in the first quarter of 2026, up from 0.5 percent at the end of last year — yet most of the conversation has been…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Uninversion That Changed the Yield Curve Story
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch since the 1970s — and it just uninverted. But instead of a recession signal, this…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Consumer Spending Is Outpacing Real Income Growth
Lucas and Luna examine how U.S. consumer spending continues to rise at 5.6% annually while real disposable personal income growth lags at 3.9%. Using the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What Falling Job Openings Tell Us About the Economy
In episode 100 of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data to understand what a small rise in job openings really means. With the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Russell 2000 Is Getting Left Behind
Episode 99 of The Macro Memo examines why the Russell 2000 is trailing the S&P 500 despite a strong economy and a recent run-up in large-cap stocks. With the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the 10-Year Breakeven Rate Is Stuck at 2.23 Percent
Episode 98 of The Macro Memo dives into a quiet but telling number: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has been locked at 2.23 percent for weeks, even as…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Russell 2000 Is Lagging the S&P 500
The S&P 500 hit 7,483 on July 3, 2026, up 1.8% in a week, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.5% over the same period. Lucas and Luna drill into why small-cap stocks…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Yield Curve Normalization Is Different This Time
The yield curve has re-steepened after one of the longest inversions in history, but Lucas and Luna break down why this normalization might not signal a…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Job Market Is Sending Mixed Signals to the Fed
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the paradox of the June jobs report: payrolls added only 57,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate fell…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Yield Curve Uninversion Is a Warning Signal
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch since the 1970s. But now it's rapidly steepening toward uninversion, and…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Job Seekers Are Giving Up Despite a Strong Economy
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna tackle a puzzling contradiction in the latest jobs data: the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent in…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Labor Force Drop Confuses the Fed More Than Ever
In Episode 92 of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising drop in the labor force participation rate, which hit its lowest level in 50 years…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Labor Force Drop Confuses the Fed
The labor force participation rate just fell to a 50-year low outside of pandemic-era lows, even as the jobless rate dropped to 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Labor Force Drop That Confuses the Fed
The U.S. labor force participation rate just fell to its lowest in 50 years outside the pandemic era. In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Stuck at 3.63 Percent
The federal funds rate has been flat at 3.63 percent since June, even as inflation remains sticky and the labor market sends mixed signals. Lucas and Luna dig…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Bond Yields Are Rising Despite Slowing Jobs Data
The bond market and the jobs market are sending mixed signals. On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the June ADP payroll miss — just 98,000…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Bond Market Is Ignoring Sticky Inflation
Core PCE has been stuck above 3 percent for months, yet the 10-year Treasury yield is falling. Lucas and Luna dig into the data to explain why bond traders are…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The S&P 500 at 7500 What History Says About Market Peaks
On July 1, 2026, the S&P 500 closed above 7,500 for the first time, with the NASDAQ hitting 26,214 and the Dow at 52,319. Lucas and Luna dig into what this…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What Falling Jobless Claims Signal for Summer Hiring
Initial jobless claims dropped to 215,000 in mid-June, the lowest level in months. Lucas and Luna unpack what this number actually means for the labor…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Rising Labor Force Participation Reshapes the Job Market
Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising trend that's reshaping the U.S. job market: labor force participation is creeping higher even as the unemployment…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
How Wages Are Rising Without Adding to Inflation
Average hourly earnings just ticked up to $37.50, but core PCE inflation is stubbornly at 3.4%. Lucas and Luna unpack a paradox that has economists divided…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Growing Gap Between Core CPI and Core PCE
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the widening divergence between core CPI and core PCE inflation. Core CPI hit 336.1 in May, up 3.4%…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Falling Despite Sticky Inflation
The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped sharply over the past week, even as core inflation remains stubbornly above 3 percent. Lucas and Luna break down the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Core PCE Keeps Sticky Above 3 Percent
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest core PCE reading of 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023, and explore why inflation is proving stickier than the Fed…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Core PCE at 3.4 Percent What It Means for Fed Policy
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest inflation data: core PCE hit 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023. They discuss…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Core PCE Hits 3.4 Percent What the Fed Sees Now
Lucas and Luna break down the May core PCE inflation print of 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023. They discuss what this means for the Fed's next…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Core PCE Hits 3.4 Percent Highest Since 2023
Episode 77 of The Macro Memo digs into the latest core PCE inflation reading of 3.4 percent — the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down why…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The 10-Year Breakeven Tells a Different Inflation Story
On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate — currently at 2.21 percent — and explain why it's sending…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Core Inflation Hits 3.4 Percent What It Means for the Fed
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May core inflation reading of 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023. They explore how this…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Small Caps Surge While Large Caps Slump What It Signals
On June 25, 2026, the Russell 2000 is up 2.4 percent over five days while the Nasdaq has dropped 2.1 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack what this small-cap…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Factory Layoff Spike That Contradicts a Strong Job Market
In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking disconnect: factory job cuts in June 2026 are at levels not seen since the 2008 financial…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why Factory Layoffs Are Spiking Despite a Strong Jobs Market
Factory job cuts in June hit levels not seen since 2008 and 2020, even as overall job openings rebounded to 7.6 million. Lucas and Luna dig into the…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Factory Job Cuts Hit Levels Not Seen Since 2008
New data shows factory job cuts in June 2026 are running at levels not seen since the financial crisis and the early pandemic. Lucas and Luna dig into the S&P…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What the 10-Year Breakeven Drop Means for the Fed
In episode 70 of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest slide in the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—now at 2.23 percent, down from over 2.45 just…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Yield Curve Is Flashing a Recession Signal
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but recently the 2-year Treasury yield jumped above 4.29 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.51 percent…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What Job Openings Are Actually Telling Us About the Economy
Job openings surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, but hiring remains sluggish. Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data to understand what's really…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The 3.63 Fed Funds Rate Is Squeezing Small Business Lending
The Fed has held the federal funds rate at 3.63 percent since May, and while headline inflation is slowly cooling, a less obvious casualty is emerging: small…
- The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What Falling Jobless Claims Tell the Fed About Hiring
Lucas and Luna dig into the latest jobless claims and JOLTS data to understand a puzzling labor market: initial claims dropped to 226,000, but job openings…