Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Is Stuck at 3.63 Percent
The federal funds rate has been flat at 3.63 percent since June, even as inflation remains sticky and the labor market sends mixed signals. Lucas and Luna dig into the Fed's dilemma: with core PCE at 130.1 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent, the data doesn't clearly call for a cut or a hike. They examine the yield curve's continued inversion, the drop in the 10-year breakeven to 2.23 percent, and what Friday's jobs report might reveal. Plus, a look at how the Fed's stance contrasts with market expectations for a September cut.
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The skinny
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