Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Small Caps Surge While Large Caps Slump What It Signals
On June 25, 2026, the Russell 2000 is up 2.4 percent over five days while the Nasdaq has dropped 2.1 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack what this small-cap outperformance means for the economy, the Fed, and recession odds. They examine the data: job openings jumped to 7.6 million, factory job cuts are near 2008 levels, and the 10-year breakeven is falling. Is the market pricing a soft landing or a rotation into domestic cyclicals? Lucas argues this is a classic late-cycle rotation; Luna pushes back, pointing to the bond market's recession signal. They also discuss what the Fed's next…
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