Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Uninversion That Changed the Yield Curve Story
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch since the 1970s — and it just uninverted. But instead of a recession signal, this time the curve is normalizing because long-term rates are rising, not because the Fed is cutting. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of what's happening in the Treasury market as of July 2026: the 2-year yield at 3.72%, the 10-year at 4.53%, and the 30-year at 5.04%. They discuss why the bond market is pricing in higher term premiums, what that means for mortgage rates and corporate borrowing, and whether this time really is…
The skinny
The skinny isn't ready yet — notes appear once the transcript is processed.