Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What the 10-Year Breakeven Drop Means for the Fed
In episode 70 of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest slide in the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—now at 2.23 percent, down from over 2.45 just a few months ago. They explore what this market-based inflation expectation says about the Fed's next move, especially with the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent and real GDP growth crawling at 1.6 percent. Could the breakeven be signaling that the bond market doubts the Fed's ability to tame inflation without tipping the economy into recession? Lucas brings in recent data on job openings, which jumped to 7.6 million, and…
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