Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Yield Curve Uninversion Is a Warning Signal
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch since the 1970s. But now it's rapidly steepening toward uninversion, and history says that's when trouble actually hits. Lucas and Luna break down why the 2-year/10-year spread matters more than the curve flattening, what six previous uninversions tell us about what follows, and how this time's unusual inversion duration changes the signal. With the Fed holding at 3.63 percent and the labor market starting to soften, they examine whether the bond market is flashing a recession signal that the stock…
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