Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Fed Ignores the Yield Curve Now
Lucas and Luna unpack why the yield curve's inversion in 2026 is no longer the recession signal it used to be. With the ten-year Treasury at 4.74 percent, the two-year at 3.71 percent, and the Fed stuck at 3.63 percent, the curve remains deeply inverted—yet the economy keeps growing. They explore how quantitative tightening, a record $40 trillion national debt, and a Treasury buyback program from Secretary Bessent have changed the mechanics of the bond market, and why the Fed now reads the curve differently. This episode is a masterclass in modern monetary plumbing, explaining what the…
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