The Bond Market's Silent Rebellion Against The Fed

The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy · Sep 21, 2026 · 12m · transcript

While the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at a three point six three percent effective rate, the bond market is quietly signaling a different story. On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dissect the divergence between official policy and what traders are pricing in for the rest of 2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield hovering near four point nine seven percent and short-term SOFR ticking up to three point eight eight percent, we explore why long-end investors are demanding higher compensation for inflation risk despite the Fed’s calm rhetoric. We look at the specific…