Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Yield Curve Is Uninverting Without a Recession
The yield curve has been inverted for nearly three years, the longest stretch in modern history. Now it's beginning to steepen again, but GDP is still growing and unemployment is 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of this curve, what the 2-10 year spread is actually signaling, and why the old recession rule might not apply this time. They look at the ten-year Treasury at 4.55 percent, the Fed funds rate at 3.62 percent, and the real GDP growth rate of 1.6 percent to make sense of the disconnect. Is this a soft landing or just a delayed reckoning? The hosts walk through…
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