Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Yield Curve Un-inversion That Has Everyone Confused
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch on record. Now it's suddenly steepening, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 23 basis points in a week while short-term rates hold steady. Lucas and Luna break down what the bond market is actually saying: Is the Fed finally winning the inflation fight, or is the curve signaling something else entirely? They dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.40%, the flat unemployment rate at 4.3%, and why the Russell 2000's 3.4% weekly gain tells a different story than the S&P 500's 1% creep…
The skinny
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