Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
Why the Yield Curve Is Flashing a Different Signal Now
The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but something shifted this week. Lucas and Luna break down the specific move in the 2-year versus 10-year Treasury spread, why the curve is steepening even as the Fed holds rates steady, and what it means for the economic outlook. They point to concrete data: the 10-year yield fell 1.4% in five days while the 2-year rose slightly, compressing a key part of the curve. The hosts discuss whether this is a classic recession warning or something new — a market repricing of fiscal risk and AI-driven growth. They also connect the steepening to…
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