Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The May Jobs Report Preview What Markets Are Pricing Wrong
With the May jobs report due Friday and long-term unemployment rising, Lucas and Luna dig into the specific disconnect between headline payrolls and the hidden deterioration in labor force quality. The unemployment rate has stayed flat at 4.3 percent for months, but initial jobless claims just jumped to 225,000 — the highest since early 2025. Meanwhile, the JOLTS data showed a surprise surge in job openings to 7.6 million, yet the Fed is still cutting rates. Lucas explains why markets may be misreading the composition of hiring: temporary versus permanent jobs, full-time versus part-time…
The skinny
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