Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Bond Market Is Betting on a Fed Pivot Here
In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the bond market's recent rally and what it tells us about where the Fed is heading. With the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.43 percent — down more than a full percentage point from its 2025 high — the fixed-income crowd is pricing in a pivot. Lucas walks through the mechanics: falling breakeven inflation, the 2-year versus 10-year spread, and the Fed's real rate dilemma at 3.63 percent. Luna pushes back on whether the bond market has been right about the economy over the past two years. They land on a core question: when the bond market…
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