Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
What Falling Bond Yields Say About Recession Odds
With the S&P 500 hitting a fresh all-time high and the ten-year Treasury yield dropping 2.6% in a week, markets are sending two contradictory messages about the economy. Lucas and Luna break down the divergence: stocks are pricing in a goldilocks scenario of steady growth and eventual rate cuts, while bonds are signaling rising recession risk. They examine the recent data—CPI at 4.2%, the Fed stuck at 3.6%, and a jump in job openings to 7.6 million—and ask which market is right. The episode also explores how the yield curve's recent uninversion fits into this picture, and what history…
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