Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed New Chairman and the Breakeven Signal
Lucas and Luna unpack Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chairman on June 18, 2026, and what his approach signals for monetary policy. They zero in on the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has dropped to 2.25 percent, and what that says about the market's view of inflation expectations under new leadership. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and CPI at 4.2 percent, the hosts discuss whether Warsh will prioritize credibility or flexibility. Specific data points include the 2.25 percent breakeven, the 3.63 percent effective fed funds rate, and the latest JOLTS job openings…
The skinny
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