How Wholesale Inflation Is Reshaping the Fed's Next Move

The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy · Jun 12, 2026 · 7m · transcript

This episode of The Macro Memo drills into the wholesale inflation surprise from May 2026 — the Producer Price Index came in at 1.1 percent, driven largely by energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down how this upstream price pressure is affecting the Fed's rate path, despite signs of cooling in consumer expectations. They discuss the implications for the ten-year breakeven inflation rate, which has dipped to 2.29 percent, and whether the Fed can hold its current 3.62 percent rate through the summer. The conversation also touches on the ECB's recent rate hike…