Latest / The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy
The 2.26 Percent Breakeven That Has the Fed Second-Guessing
This episode dives into one of the most telling signals the bond market is sending right now: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has dropped to 2.26 percent, well below the current CPI reading of 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna explore what this gap means for the Federal Reserve's next move, why the breakeven is falling even as headline inflation remains sticky, and how the Fed's new chairman Kevin Warsh might interpret the data. They also discuss the surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million and what that says about the labour market's resilience. If you want to understand…
The skinny
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