Shows / Excess Returns
Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
Episodes
- Excess Returns
The S&P 500 Is Just 50 Stocks. The Nasdaq Is a 67% AI Bet. Kai Wu on What Else Is Hiding in Your Funds
Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital shows how to uncover hidden AI exposure, overlapping ETF holdings, and unintended factor bets in your portfolio. Owning several…
- Excess Returns
Dr. Daniel Crosby on Behaviorally Optimal Portfolios, Risk Composure and the Casino Myth
Daniel Crosby explains why investors can lose money in winning funds and how to build a portfolio they can actually hold. Picking the right investment is only…
- Excess Returns
Baird's Tech Strategist Says This Isn't 2000. So Why Is He Warning Against Buying the Dip?
Ted Mortonson of Baird explains why conviction in the AI boom doesn't mean buying every dip in tech stocks. He joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to…
- Excess Returns
He Asked 25 Finance Pros How They Invest Their Own Money: Brian Portnoy on What the Models Get Wrong
Brian Portnoy of Shaping Wealth explores why experienced investors build very different portfolios—and what that means for your own money. In How I Invest My…
- Excess Returns
Rob Arnott on the Hidden Costs of Passive Investing and the Real Winners From AI
Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and chairman of Syzygy Asset Management, examines S&P 500 concentration and who could benefit most from AI. Owning…
- Excess Returns
The S&P 500 Is Only 50 Stocks. 70% of the Index Is in a Correction. Did the Sell-Off Already Happen?
Paisley Nardini of Tema ETFs explores AI investing, S&P 500 concentration, and how to build a portfolio around changing market risks. How can investors…
- Excess Returns
We Asked T. Rowe Price's $17B International Manager Why Value is Winning Again — and What the S&P 500 Leaves Out
Colin McQueen of T. Rowe Price explains what is changing for international value stocks and how he separates cheap businesses from opportunities that can…
- Excess Returns
Tech Is Rolling Over. Yields Are Falling. Why Jim Paulsen is Watching the Walmart Recession Signal
Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech's long run of leadership. But his…
- Excess Returns
AI Productivity Is Real. 83% of Stocks Are 10% Off Highs. Why Does Barry Ritholtz Like Bonds Again?
Barry Ritholtz, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler explore why AI's real productivity gains don't automatically translate into an investing edge. From stock picking…
- Excess Returns
The Winners That Get Away | Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom on Holding Great Businesses
Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom explore the tension between holding great businesses and keeping a winning stock from becoming too much portfolio risk. Why do…
- Excess Returns
Katie Stockton Still Sees a Bull Market. So Why Is Her ETF Only 50% in Stocks?
Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies explains why the S&P 500 can reach record highs while many individual stocks struggle. She sees the bull market as…
- Excess Returns
Tom Maher on Small-Cap Investing, AI Infrastructure and Opportunities Beyond Big Tech
Tom Maher of Hilton Capital Management explains what is changing for small-cap stocks as earnings improve and AI spending reaches beyond big tech. After years…
- Excess Returns
Ed Yardeni Still Sees S&P 10,000 by 2029. So Why Is He Getting More Cautious?
Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research explains why he still sees the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2029, even as higher oil prices and bond yields make him more cautious…
- Excess Returns
The 10-Year Hit a 24-Year High. Nobody Is Buying Puts. Are You Watching the Wrong Market?
Andy Constan, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman examine rising bond yields, options positioning and the inflation risks facing stocks. What happens if the rate…
- Excess Returns
They Beat All US Stock Funds Since 2003 | Michael Baron on the AI Winners Investors Miss
Michael Baron of Baron Capital explains his case for AI beneficiaries beyond the biggest tech stocks, including software companies the market fears will be…
- Excess Returns
The Game Was Rigged in Their Favor. 28% Went Bust Anyway | Kris Abdelmessih on How to Size Bets
How much of your portfolio does a good investment idea deserve? Kris Abdelmessih of Moontower joins Matt Zeigler to explain why having an edge is only part of…
- Excess Returns
We Asked the Data Journalist Who Rebuilt the Jobs Report What the Headline Number Hides
What are headline jobs and inflation numbers missing about the economy investors actually face? Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to examine…
- Excess Returns
He Lost $157,000 in 3 Minutes | Jack Raines on the Lesson Winning Never Taught Him
Jack Raines turned $6,000 into roughly $400,000 trading SPACs, then lost $157,000 in three minutes after taking a very different bet. The author of Young Money…
- Excess Returns
The AI Gap Is Closing | Jason Hsu on China, Momentum Crashes and the S&P’s Seven-Stock Bet
Jason Hsu, founder and CIO of Rayliant Global Advisors and co-founder of Research Affiliates, joins Excess Returns to discuss the US-China AI race, the…
- Excess Returns
David Rosenberg on Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks
David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks…
- Excess Returns
Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson on AI, Private Markets, and the Hidden Risks in Index Funds
Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson joins Matt Zeigler to explore how AI, blockchain tokenization, and private markets are reshaping investing and asset…
- Excess Returns
Jim Paulsen on the Weakening Economy, Tech Bear Market Risk and the Bull Market Built on Fear
Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on the latest Jim Paulsen Show to explore why booming AI earnings may be masking a weakening U.S. economy, and…
- Excess Returns
We Asked Fidelity's Ex-President What Made Peter Lynch Great — and Where Private Credit Risk Hides
Former Fidelity president and MFS chairman Bob Pozen joins Excess Returns to discuss retirement investing, the risks in private credit, and why he favors a 90%…
- Excess Returns
Everyone Hates Bonds. Why Two Bond Managers Say You're Hating the Wrong Ones
John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different…
- Excess Returns
All-In on the S&P 500 Worked for 18 Years | Jared Dillian on Why It's Still Wrong
Jared Dillian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss The Awesome Portfolio, his approach to asset allocation built around 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and…
- Excess Returns
Nvidia Is Betting on Its Customers. Gen Z Is Betting on Sports. Will It All End the Same Way?
Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler on Click Beta to explore how sports betting, leveraged ETFs and speculative behavior are blurring the line…
- Excess Returns
Bearish Into November. Room to Run After: Why Dan Niles Is Watching Hyperscaler Credit Default Swaps
Dan Niles joins Excess Returns to explain why he believes AI is a genuine industrial revolution and a bubble at the same time, with significant opportunity…
- Excess Returns
The Fed Credibility Narrative Has Turned | Ben Hunt on AI, the Consumer and Financial Repression
Ben Hunt joins Matt Zeigler to explain why damaged Fed and Treasury credibility could matter just as four major risks converge across private credit, AI…
- Excess Returns
Sticky Inflation. Cheap Volatility. A Less Predictable Fed. Why Aren’t Markets More Worried?
This month on Last Call, Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt and Brent Kochuba break down the market through four lenses: macro, inflation data, narrative and…
- Excess Returns
The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble
Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven…
- Excess Returns
Private Equity Chased Software. Big Tech Is Chasing AI. Dan Rasmussen on If They Are Making the Same Mistake Twice
Dan Rasmussen, founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers and author of The Humble Investor, joins Kai Wu to examine the unraveling of private equity, the…
- Excess Returns
Only 2.7% Beat the S&P for 20 Years | Ian Cassel on What Elite Stock Pickers Do Differently
Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and author of Stock Picker, joins Matt Zeigler to break down the mindset, temperament and core skills required to…
- Excess Returns
The Rally is Broadening. The Earnings Growth Isn't. Liz Ann Sonders on Which Breaks First
Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins us to explain why today's economy and stock market are increasingly defined by rotation…
- Excess Returns
We Asked Andy Constan What Happens If AI Funding Breaks Before the Thesis — And if Warsh Blinks
Andy Constan is back on First Principles to explain why record stock prices, rising long-term Treasury yields and sticky inflation can all coexist, and why the…
- Excess Returns
We Asked Value Legend Bob Robotti Why the Real AI Trade Isn't AI — And Why Passive Helps Stock Pickers
Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of…
- Excess Returns
Jim Paulsen Sees a Growth Scare Coming | The 34 Charts That Make Him Cautious
In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show, Jim explains why weakening labor data, softening inflation, and lagged policy tightening could shift markets from…
- Excess Returns
We Asked T. Rowe's $8 Billion Tech Manager Why We Are in 1998 — And Why Software Is in Trouble
T. Rowe Price technology portfolio manager Dom Rizzo joins Jack Forehand and Kai Wu to break down the AI investment cycle, hyperscaler capital spending…
- Excess Returns
David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead
Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite to debate the Federal Reserve, inflation, the AI investment boom, market bubbles, gold and the case for…
- Excess Returns
4% Inflation. Stretched Valuations. Why Is the Market Still Risk-On? | Tian Yang
Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception and portfolio manager of the VPX ETF, explains how investors can use adaptive leading indicators, capital…
- Excess Returns
The Biggest Leak in Finance | Brent Donnelly on Why You're Probably Too Bearish
Brent Donnelly joins Matt Zeigler to explain how professional traders build a durable edge through risk management, trading psychology, probabilistic thinking…
- Excess Returns
A $20B Blowup. A War-Sized AI Bet. Was the Bottom Just a Margin Call? | Last Call
On this episode of our new market wrap show Last Call, we examine the hidden rotation beneath calm stock market indexes, including sharp AI and semiconductor…
- Excess Returns
A War-Sized AI Bet. Private Credit Went All In. Will the Government End Up Owning It?
We are excited to announce the launch of a new podcast, Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt. Stories and narratives are increasingly shaping markets, and…
- Excess Returns
He Called It the Worst Chart Imaginable. Then He Bought It | Rupert Mitchell on Cracks in the Mag 7
Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to explain how surging AI capital spending, mega-cap share issuance and expensive U.S. technology…
- Excess Returns
The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Robert Hagstrom on What Wall Street Gets Wrong About Risk
On the latest 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to revisit the 25th anniversary edition of The Warren Buffett…
- Excess Returns
Even God Would Be Fired | Wes Gray on Bubbles, AI Valuations and Why Size Was Never the Edge
Wes Gray joins us to explain how factor investors should think about high market valuations, S&P 500 concentration, value investing, small caps, artificial…
- Excess Returns
Not a Time for Big Bets | Aahan Menon on What 60 Years of Regime Data Says About Today’s Market
Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, joins Jack Forehand to explain what systematic macro data says about economic growth, inflation, Federal Reserve…
- Excess Returns
We Asked the Man Who Mapped the AI Economy If the Boom Is Real — And Who Keeps the Money
Azeem Azhar joins Kai Wu to break down the real economics of the AI boom, including the $110 billion demand base, where profits may accrue across chips…
- Excess Returns
It Only Happens at Bottoms | Andy Constan on the Options Extreme That Showed Up at the Highs
On the Latest First Principles, Andy Constan explains what the options market is signaling about the AI and semiconductor boom, why he believes earnings…
- Excess Returns
Jack Schwager on Timeless Lessons from Elite Traders
Jack Schwager joins Excess Returns to discuss Market Wizards: The Next Generation and the extraordinary young traders profiled in the newest installment of the…
- Excess Returns
The Recession the Unemployment Rate Can't See | Eric Pachman on the Data Beneath the Jobs Report
Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the…
- Excess Returns
Jim Paulsen Sees a Correction Coming | The 33 Charts That Turned Him Cautious
Jim Paulsen joins us to explain why weakening economic momentum, tightening financial conditions and extreme AI enthusiasm could set the stage for a 10% to 20%…
- Excess Returns
Big Uptrend. Tech Momentum Fading | Katie Stockton on the Rotation Investors Are Missing
Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Excess Returns to break down the current technical setup for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, mega-cap tech, market…
- Excess Returns
We Asked a $1 Billion Quant Manager Why Concentration Isn't a Warning — and Small Caps Aren't Dead
Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners joins Excess Returns to explain how evidence-based investing can help investors navigate AI excitement, market…
- Excess Returns
The $600 Billion Loop | Jeff Klingelhofer on AI, the Return of Bonds and the Fed's Third Mandate
Jeff Klingelhofer of Aristotle Pacific joins Excess Returns to break down the fragile circular relationship between AI capital spending, the stock market, the…
- Excess Returns
We Asked Meb Faber Why US Stocks Won for 250 Years — And If It Can Continue
Meb Faber, co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book, Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull…
- Excess Returns
Semis Gone Parabolic. Fed Credibility Reversal. Can the Rally Survive the Flows?
In this episode of Last Call, we look back at June 2026 and break down the biggest market stories shaping investors’ outlook for the second half of the year…
- Excess Returns
The AI Trade, the Fed and the Next Phase of the Bull Market | Warren Pies
Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Excess Returns to break down the AI bull market, the macro risks investors should watch, and why the data still…
- Excess Returns
He Wrote the Book on Why Moats Fail | Ritavan on What Actually Compounds Instead
Ritavan joins Excess Returns to explain The System Gambit, a new framework for understanding competitive advantage, business strategy, AI disruption and…
- Excess Returns
The 100 Year Thinkers: Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI Reckoning, and Why Early Is Overrated
On this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Matt Zeigler discuss long-term investing, 100-baggers, AI stocks, SpaceX valuation, founder-led…
- Excess Returns
We Asked GMO’s Head of Asset Allocation Why This Bubble is Easy — But Investors Will Get it Wrong
Ben Inker of GMO joins Excess Returns to break down whether the AI boom is an investment bubble, how it compares to 2000, 2007 and 2021, and why today’s risk…