The AI Trade, the Fed and the Next Phase of the Bull Market | Warren Pies

Excess Returns · Jul 2, 2026 · 55m

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Excess Returns to break down the AI bull market, the macro risks investors should watch, and why the data still supports continued strength in semiconductors and equities. We discuss GPU demand, token usage, open source AI, Fed policy, housing weakness, oil, earnings growth, market valuations and the biggest risks to the current cycle.

Warren Pies on X

https://x.com/WarrenPies

3Fourteen Research

https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/

Caliban

https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/caliban

Main topics covered

Which bearish AI arguments actually matter for…