Shows / Excess Returns
Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
Episodes
- Excess Returns
Finding Quality Growth in Emerging Markets with Ian Smith
Ian Smith, portfolio manager at William Blair, joins Excess Returns to break down emerging markets, global diversification, and why EM may offer a very…
- Excess Returns
The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees
Tobias Carlisle joins Excess Returns to discuss why today’s market may be setting up a major opportunity in value stocks, small caps and micro caps. We cover…
- Excess Returns
The Trillion Dollar Gap | Aswath Damodaran on SpaceX, AI and the Big Market Delusion
Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Kai Wu on The Intangible Economy to break down how to value SpaceX, AI companies, intangible assets, and the future of value…
- Excess Returns
Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind
In the third episode of First Principles with Andy Constan, Andy breaks down the changing structure of markets as the IPO window reopens, AI CapEx accelerates…
- Excess Returns
The SpaceX IPO Meets a Huge Options Expiration | Brent Kochuba on What Comes Next
In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma…
- Excess Returns
Mike Green on What Happens When Passive Flows Meet the Largest IPO in History
Mike Green joins Excess Returns to explain why passive investing, index construction, SpaceX, AI IPOs and mega-cap concentration may be changing how the stock…
- Excess Returns
We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins
AI could become the next general purpose technology, reshaping economic growth, inflation, interest rates and portfolio construction. Vanguard Global Chief…
- Excess Returns
The SpaceX IPO… What Happens When $1.75 Trillion Meets 4% Float
On the latest Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson discuss what could happen when SpaceX goes public and why this IPO may be as much a…
- Excess Returns
Tech Spending Has a Cash Problem | Jim Paulsen on the Two Signals That Could Trigger a Correction
Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a…
- Excess Returns
He Quantified 200 Years of Disruption | Kai Wu on Separating Software Survivors from Value Traps
Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to break down his latest research on AI disruption, software stocks, value traps, and intangible moats. We…
- Excess Returns
The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet
In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk…
- Excess Returns
Cheap Is a Warning, Not a Thesis | Adam Parker on What This Market Is Really Pricing
Adam Parker returns to Excess Returns to explain why the market may be trading more on future fundamentals than investors think, how AI is reshaping stock…
- Excess Returns
He Built the Fund He'd Hold 30 Years | Eric Crittenden on What Investors Pick When Labels Come Off
Eric Crittenden joins Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck for a deep dive into trend following and managed futures. They discuss why systematic macro trend investing…
- Excess Returns
Cliff Asness on Bubbles, Private Equity and His Research Greatest Hits
Cliff Asness returns to Excess Returns for a greatest hits tour through some of his most important and entertaining investing ideas. We discuss bubble logic…
- Excess Returns
He Studied Every Bear Market Since 1929 | Ben Carlson on How the Worst Starting Point Still Made 8%
Ben Carlson joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book Risk and Reward and the biggest lessons investors can learn from market history. We cover how to think…
- Excess Returns
Is AI Still in 1995? Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on the Next Phase of the AI Boom
AI is moving from hype to real enterprise adoption, and Gene Munster and Doug Clinton join Excess Returns to explain what that means for investors, technology…
- Excess Returns
Jeremy Grantham on AI, Bubbles and Why Mean Reversion Lives On
Jeremy Grantham joins Excess Returns to discuss The Making of a Permabear, mean reversion, market bubbles, AI, the Magnificent 7, and the long-term lessons…
- Excess Returns
He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is
Marc Rubinstein joins Excess Returns to explain what private credit, bank earnings, insurance balance sheets, fintech growth, and arbitrage firms reveal about…
- Excess Returns
Lessons from Investing Through Bubble Regimes with Andy Constan
First Principles with Andy Constan launches with a deep dive into market bubbles, AI, semiconductor stocks, and the financial conditions that can turn powerful…
- Excess Returns
He Wrote the Book on Bubbles | Edward Chancellor on If AI is Different
Edward Chancellor joins Kai Wu on the latest episode of the Intangible Economy to discuss what financial history and capital cycle theory can teach investors…
- Excess Returns
We Asked an Options Expert Why This Melt Up Hasn’t Broken — and Which Signal Could End It
Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and…
- Excess Returns
We Asked a $4.5B Quant Manager Why the S&P 500 Is Just 46 Stocks — and Why Small Caps Aren't Dead
Elena Khoziaeva, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Bridgeway Capital Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss factor investing, small…
- Excess Returns
The Last Moat | Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel on the Stock Picking Edge AI Can’t Replicate
This episode of our new showThe 100 Year Thinkers brings together Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel for a deep discussion on long-term stock picking, microcap…
- Excess Returns
We Asked Rich Bernstein and Chris Davis Why This Market Isn’t as Safe as It Feels
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market…
- Excess Returns
We Asked Ben Hunt, Jim Paulsen, Kevin Muir and Brent Kochuba Why Bad News Can’t Break This Market
This episode of Last Call breaks down one of the most confusing market environments in recent memory: why stocks continue to rise despite war, oil shocks, and…
- Excess Returns
The Opportunity No One Sees | Richard Bernstein on Finding Value in a Narrow Market
This episode explores one of the most important debates in markets today: whether investors are underestimating the risk of higher inflation and…
- Excess Returns
Feeling Safe Is the Risk | Chris Davis on Finding Durable Companies in a Disrupted World
This episode with Chris Davis of Davis Advisors explores how investors should think about risk, valuation, and opportunity in a market defined by high…
- Excess Returns
Buy High, Sell Higher | Travis Prentice on Dispersion, Passive's Structural Risk and Why 52 Week Highs Don't Mean What You Think
This episode explores how massive structural shifts—AI, deglobalization, and the rise of passive investing—are reshaping markets and what that means for…
- Excess Returns
The Secular Plateau | Chris Bloomstran on Why We May Be at Peak Valuations
This episode features Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus discussing market concentration, AI capital spending, Berkshire Hathaway, and the risks facing…
- Excess Returns
We Asked David Rosenberg Why He Owns Almost No US Stocks — and What He Holds Instead
This episode features David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, breaking down why today’s market may be driven more by valuation excess and investor…
- Excess Returns
The Resilience No One Trusts | Brent Donnelly on Why War and Oil Haven’t Broken This Market
Brent Donnelly returns to Excess Returns to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years, where policy shocks, volatility, and positioning…
- Excess Returns
The Bear Market No One Sees | Liz Ann Sonders on the Real Story Indexes Hide
Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab joins Excess Returns to break down how war, an oil shock, and shifting market dynamics are reshaping the investing landscape. She…
- Excess Returns
The Forever Invariable Truth | Jim Grant on War, Inflation, and What Comes Next
This episode features Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer on inflation, war, monetary policy, and the long arc of credit cycles. Grant explains why…
- Excess Returns
The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have…
- Excess Returns
The Risk at the End of the Whip | GMO’s Tom Hancock on Finding Conviction Amid the AI Hype
This episode of Excess Returns features GMO’s Tom Hancock on how to think about AI as an investment opportunity and what truly defines “quality” in today’s…
- Excess Returns
The Walmart Indicator Just Hit 2008 Levels | Jim Paulsen on the Big Difference This Time
This episode of Excess Returns features Jim Paulsen breaking down the current macro environment through a series of powerful indicators, including oil…
- Excess Returns
The Inevitability No One Sees | $11 Billion Tech Manager on What Investors Miss About AI
This episode of Excess Returns features Tony Wang of T. Rowe Price discussing how investors can identify “inevitabilities” in technology and position…
- Excess Returns
The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next
This episode explores the growing signs of a shift beneath the surface of the market, as technical indicators point to weakening momentum in equities and a…
- Excess Returns
Michael Mauboussin | AI, Base Rates, and Investing in the New Economy
In this inaugural episode of our new show, The Intangible Economy with Kai Wu, we explore how AI, intangible assets, and unprecedented capital investment are…
- Excess Returns
The Stagflation Regime | Aahan Menon on What Works When Stocks and Bonds Don’t
This episode of Excess Returns features Aahan Menon of Prometheus Research breaking down the growing risk of an inflation shock driven by energy markets and…
- Excess Returns
The Inflections Wall Street Misses | Harris Kupperman on Finding Overlooked Opportunities
This episode explores Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman’s framework for “inflection investing” and how he identifies asymmetric opportunities across global markets. The…
- Excess Returns
The Moment Common Knowledge Changed | Last Call - With Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman
This episode of our new market wrap show Last Call breaks down the biggest market drivers right now through three distinct lenses: macro, narrative, and flows…
- Excess Returns
The Private Credit Apocalypse That Isn’t Coming | Larry Swedroe Dispels the Myths
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to break down one of the most debated topics in markets today: private credit. Larry walks…
- Excess Returns
Nothing Is Priced In | Bob Elliott on Why Investors Are Misreading the Oil Shock
This episode of Excess Returns features Bob Elliott discussing the growing fragility in the global economy as an oil shock collides with a shift from an…
- Excess Returns
The 0.1% Winners | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Why Outliers Drive Returns
Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Apple In this episode of our new show, 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom…
- Excess Returns
Big Decline. Options Support Gone | Brent Kochuba on the Fragile Market Setup
Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts This episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of…
- Excess Returns
The War Markets Can't Price | Jared Dillian on the Regime Change Investors Miss
In this episode, Jared Dillian joins Excess Returns to break down why markets consistently misprice major regime shifts, geopolitical risks, and inflation…
- Excess Returns
They Call It a Lottery Ticket. The Data Says Otherwise | D.A. Wallach on The Hidden Alpha of Biotech
Biotech is one of the few areas in investing where specialized knowledge may still generate persistent alpha. In this episode of Excess Returns, D.A. Wallach…
- Excess Returns
14% for Tech. 1% for Everyone Else | The Weekly Wrap – 3/14/2026
Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Spotify Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Apple In this episode, we break down the most important…
- Excess Returns
The $1 Trillion Supercycle Hidden in Plain Sight | Joseph Shaposhnik
On this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski speak with Rainwater Equity ETF portfolio manager Joseph Shaposhnik about how long-term…
- Excess Returns
Survival First. Returns Second | Vitaliy Katsenelson on Investing Amid Extreme Uncertainty
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski speak with Vitaliy Katsenelson, CEO of Investment Management Associates and author of…
- Excess Returns
What War Charts and AI Bubbles Miss | The Weekly Market Insight – March 8, 2026
Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Spotify Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Apple In this new weekly Excess Returns recap, Jack Forehand…
- Excess Returns
1% Growth. Zero Jobs | Jim Paulsen on the Recession Hiding in Plain Sight
Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Jack…
- Excess Returns
The Widest Valuation Gap in History | Rob Arnott on What Investors Are Missing About AI
Rob Arnott returns to Excess Returns to discuss the biggest questions facing investors today, including the impact of geopolitical conflict, the valuation gap…
- Excess Returns
100% Out of US Stocks | Andy Constan on AI, War Risk and the Shift Abroad
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors for a wide-ranging discussion on geopolitical risk, AI and…
- Excess Returns
Is AI Replacing Workers Faster Than We Think? | We Break Down the Viral AI Doom Loop Article
In this episode, Jack Forehand and Kai Wu break down the viral “AI doom loop” article that sparked debate across Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and even the…
- Excess Returns
The AI Panic Trade | What the Viral Doomsday AI Article Means for Markets
Follow Last Call on SpotifyFollow Last Call on Apple PodcastsIn this episode of Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler look past the headlines to unpack…
- Excess Returns
Most Portfolios Are Built Backwards | Cullen Roche on Building Your Perfect Portfolio
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Cullen Roche to discuss his new book Your Perfect Portfolio and the deeper principles behind building a…
- Excess Returns
The Edge Has Shifted | Matt Reustle on How the Best Investors Use AI
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Russell of Business Breakdowns to explore how AI is actually being used in investing today. We go…
- Excess Returns
When You've Won the Game, Stop Playing | What Great Investors Taught Us About Portfolio and Purpose
Subscribe to Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Spotify Subscribe to Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Apple In this episode, we explore one of the most…