Shows / Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Helping retail investors grow wealth through long-term, buy-and-hold investing in stocks, index funds, and Bitcoin. Subscribe to the Rigatoni Capital Substack newsletter for weekly analysis, market insights, and portfolio updates.
Episodes
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Are Personalized AI Robots Eating Google’s Ad Business?
I felt it was necessary to come on this morning and speak on Alphabet, which fell more than eleven percent after earnings. The real question underneath it is…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
SK Hynix Reignites the AI Infrastructure Trade, While Other Good Earnings Get Sold
After only two strong days, with today the third if it holds, the spooky stretch from last week already feels like a different market. SK Hynix just posted the…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Financials Are Dead Money While Semis and Industrials Looked Oversold
Financials are stuck in no man’s land, and we briefly discuss my thoughts on why, like a flattening of the yield curve, and some uncertainty around the M&A/IPO…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
An Options Pro on Liquidity and the AI Infrastructure Selloff | Joe Duarte
I sat down with Joe Duarte (the writer of Smart Money Passport on Substack), a physician turned full-time trader who has been writing investment newsletters…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Ken Griffin Has the Pulse of the Market, and He Sees Dead People
Ken Griffin of Citadel thinks we are almost certainly in an AI bubble even as he stays bullish on where the technology ends up, and his own view has swung from…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Cash Is a Position: Trimming Before the Anthropic IPO
I spend most of my time preaching long-term buy and hold, so raising a big cash pile probably sounds off-brand. But a professional buy the dipper without cash…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Just Own the Nasdaq and Chill: Reading the AI Selloff
Always fun to see investors trying to piece together the same puzzle right now, why the AI infrastructure sell-off is starting?? But there are many reasons…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Hot CPI, Decent Bank Earnings, and My Margin Problem
September CPI came in hot at 3.7% against a 3.6% estimate, with core running 0.3% versus the 0.2% the street wanted, and the 10-year jumped to 5.3% on the…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Big Bank Earnings: Opening Ceremonies
Welcome to the opening ceremonies of earnings season. JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley all reported today, with Bank of America…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Houthis Strike Saudi Arabia as Bank Earnings Loom
The biggest story over the weekend (in my opinion) was the Houthi missile strikes on a Saudi airport, which canceled more than a thousand flights, killed 13…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Nubank’s Global Playbook and GameStop’s Growing Cash Pile | Nick Ridenour of CompoundingAlpha
This week Nick Ridenour of CompoundingAlpha is back for a run through his latest deep dives, starting with Nu Holdings, the SoFi of Latin America, where he…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
The Big Banks Are Sitting on Massive Hidden Losses | Bagholder
This week Kevin, also known as Bagholder, who writes Mytwocent$ on Substack, joins me before bank earnings season kicks off. Bag lays out the bearish case on…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Tech, Financials, and Industrials: The Only Three Investment Themes I Need
When friends ask how I build my investment portfolio, aka the Rigatoni Capital portfolio, it really comes down to three major investment themes. The first is…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Cash-Rich Over Debt-Heavy: A Theme Taking Shape
A potential new theme is taking shape in this market, and it comes down to cash-rich companies winning while debt-heavy ones get punished. The chart below…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
A Healthy Breather in a Quiet October, With Earnings Up Next
After the Nasdaq printed fresh all-time highs day after day, futures are finally pulling back this morning on an oil jump from Hormuz tanker attacks, a 30-year…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Micron and Nvidia Earnings Will Carry the Whole Market, and That's Okay
Everybody is passing around the scary version of this upcoming earnings season, that the top ten stocks will account for roughly two-thirds of the S&P 500's…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
What If Tech Is Just a Flight to Safety?
Michael Hartnett at Bank of America points to the 1999 template, the narrow breadth where tech ripped more than 40% while almost everything else fell, as a…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
What Does It Take To Be A Long-Term Buy-and-Hold Investor? | George Dykes
This week George Dykes, co-host of the Investing or Gambling podcast, joins me to work through what it really takes to be a long-term buy and hold investor…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
The Mag 7 Is Masking a Bear Market, and the Speed of Higher Rates Is the Culprit
The indexes are at all-time highs, but what's happening underneath the hood is quite different. The Mag 7 is masking what looks a lot like a bear market in…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
When TINA Becomes TIGA: Bonds Are an Alternative Again
For most of my investing career the market has run on TINA, the idea that there is no alternative to stocks, and that made decisions very easy. With the…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
How Robinhood AI Agents Could Run a Kelly Criterion Trading Strategy
So is it theoretically possible that Robinhood's new AI agents could eventually run a Kelly Criterion style strategy for you, sizing every trade at a fixed…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Why the AI Agent Winners Will Be Decided by Compute
I break down the "Invest Like the Best" episode with Noah Shin of Instinct, the original personal agent that is invite-only, growing more than 10% a day, and…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
The War I Said Would Never End: Why I'm Starting to Sniff an Iran Exit
I have said on this show almost every day that the US-Iran war is never going to end, so this is me changing my tune. As of Friday I am starting to sniff a…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Bessent's Bond Buybacks: Signaling, Not Substance | Marc Rudajev
This week's guest is Marc Rudajev of Learning, Investing, Thriving. The increased purchases of longer dated Treasury bills is something Marc believes is more…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Meta Muse Is Another ChatGPT Moment, and It's Bullish
I have been living inside Meta Muse for the last few days, and I am convinced it is another ChatGPT moment. It is the same kind of breakthrough where you use…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Yields Spike and the Trump-Xi Summit Is Probably a Nothing Burger
Yields continue to spike, stocks are selling off, and Monday's big rally is looking more and more like wishful thinking. There was a glimmer of hope for a…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
The Buy and Hold Stocks Debate: Does It Actually Work?
Adam Parker of Trivariate Research put out a piece called "Buy and Hold Doesn't Work," and Josh Brown and Michael Batnick spent their Tuesday show on it. I…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
I Know DCA Wins. Here's Why I Still Buy the Dip
I know dollar cost averaging beats timing the dip. If you already have a 401k with an employer match running in the background, you are dollar cost averaging…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
A Glimpse of What Happens When Oil Sells Off: Tech Stocks Rip
Markets are green this morning for one simple reason, oil pulled back, and it is a small glimpse of what a real easing in energy prices could do to this…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
A Micron 13-Bagger on Investing Through a US-Iran War | Red Eye Returns
Tima Kanaan of Red Eye Returns joins the podcast from Lebanon, and her core argument is that the market is complacent, pricing in almost nothing even as two…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
A Spotify Bull and Nintendo Bear Shares His Latest Market Thoughts | Simeon McMillan
Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest joins the podcast, and we start where the headlines are, with Wells Fargo's downgrade of Netflix on weak engagement. Simeon…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Why Exiting Iran Is the Real Bull Case for Stocks
Stocks held up after the hawkish hike, congratulations. However, Bank of America's math explains what comes next: the S&P's projected 33% earnings growth this…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
The Fed Hiked Into a Supply Shortage. Good Luck on that!
The Fed delivered a hawkish hike yesterday, and I dig into why I think raising a quarter point does nothing for the inflation people feel at the grocery store…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Hours From the Fed: A Rate Hike, Depleted Missiles, and Expensive Tech
The Fed decides at 2pm today, and I still have lingering doubts about whether they hike, even with the market convinced. The defense theme is front and center…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
The 10-Year Hit 5%. Time to Rethink Tech Stocks?
We get into the equity risk premium (ERP), shout out to Fulcrum, which presents that this has flipped negative for the first time since the dot-com bubble…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
The AI Slowdown Is Fake News
AI stocks are selling off hard this morning after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's weekend essay calling to pace the frontier and slow AI capability gains, a view…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
CPI Friday - Live Stream Edit
August CPI landed with the headline in line at 3.4% year over year but core a tick hot at 0.3% on the month, sending next week's rate-hike odds to around 90%…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Why I Watch the 52-Week-Low List: Is L3Harris a Buy?
PPI came in line this morning, up 0.4% for the month but still a tad hot at 5.4% year over year on an energy spike. Rate-hike odds firmed toward roughly two…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Brent Tops $100: Why It Doesn't Change My Portfolio
Brent crude topping $100 for the first time since July is the backdrop this morning, with the US-Iran conflict pushing oil higher, the ten-year near 4.81%, and…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Why Most Market News Isn't Worth Your Time
Coming off the long weekend, I use this one to reset what the show is about. It is not a show for day-trading and it's not a news program. I make the case that…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
A Hot Jobs Number and Why I Still Think the Fed Holds
Jobs report day delivered a hot number, with August payrolls coming in at 162,000 against a 53,000 estimate and unemployment steady at 4.1%. It does not change…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Broadcom Is Down After an Incredible Quarter. Is This a Buy the Dip?
Broadcom reported an incredible quarter, with revenue up 86% year over year to $29.6 billion, but the stock is selling off on its fourth quarter guidance. I…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Buckle Up for a Shaky September as the 10-Year Nears 5%
Yields down a touch this morning, but yes, a ten-year pushing toward 5% tends to rattle folks, though history says buyers have often stepped in there like in…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Global Bond Sell-Off: Not a Buy The Dip Moment
A global bond sell-off is the story this morning, with the US ten-year near 4.79%, its highest since January 2025, and Japan's ten-year hitting 3% for the…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Why a September Rate Hike Would Be a Bigly Mistake
Markets started the morning pulling back, with oil spiking after US strikes on Iran's Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, drawing a retaliation of course by…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
What Sits at the Cross-Section of Scarcity and Networks? | Bagholder
Kevin Bagholder is back on the show to talk about what he sees at the intersection of scarcity and networks. We start with the metals, where copper is leading…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Jackson Hole Hangover: Warsh Goes Hawkish and Trump's Venezuela Oil Deal
Not sure about you, but I got a Jackson Hole hangover this morning. I was also up late watching the Phillies making another dramatic comeback in Anaheim…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Kevin Warsh's First Jackson Hole Speech: Word Salad Champion
It's Jackson Hole day, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first symposium keynote as chair at 10 a.m. Eastern. What I'm watching is whether he leans…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Nvidia Earnings Celebrations and Why I Bought Meta Stock
Last night's Nvidia earnings were the main event, and I live streamed the call and wrote up my full recap on Substack. The quarter beat, but the bigger…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
NVIDIA Already Won. So What's the Catalyst for 2027?
Nvidia reports tonight and I'm planning to live stream the call so we can go through it together. What I want to hear is a catalyst for 2027 and 2028, some…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Nvidia Week, and Druckenmiller Takes On Bessent
Bessent said Monday that the Treasury has not bought a single bond yet and the buyback operation begins September 9th, and he's got up to $950 billion…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
My Thoughts on Bitcoin as Bessent Threatens More Bond Buybacks
All eyes are on Nvidia earnings Wednesday and Jackson Hole on Friday, while Bessent keeps talking up more Treasury bond buybacks. My read is this is the…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
What Netflix Got Right and AppLovin Got Wrong This Quarter | Simeon McMillan
Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest returns for his quarterly check-in after a heavy Q2 media earnings season. We get into why Wall Street keeps misreading…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Walmart's Selloff and the Debasement Trade Rolls On
Stocks are up pre-market with Bitcoin hitting $79k overnight, gold ripping, and the 10-year back around 4.7. The debasement trade is still very much alive…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Treasury Yields Reverse a Day After the Buyback News
Yields reversed hard this morning, with the 10-year and 30-year climbing almost right back to where they were before yesterday's Bessent buyback news, as if…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
The Best Part of Being a Long-Term Investor
Being a long term investor means you learn something every single day, and that learning compounds the same way a portfolio does, so by year 11 or 12 you pick…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
International Yields Keep Spiking, Watch Out! - Live Stream
Bond yields are spiking everywhere, with the Japan 10-year hitting a three decade high, and I get into why the carry trade footprint is still large even after…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Semis Continue to Rip So Hard, Heads Are Spinning - Live Stream
Semis keep ripping with names like Cerebras, SanDisk, Marvell and Western Digital leading the way. I get into the Wall Street Journal piece on AI circular…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Reading Some 13Fs - Live Stream
I test out the live stream and read through some of the latest 13Fs for fun, including Berkshire, Bill Gates Foundation, Bill Ackman, David Tepper, Seth…
- Rigatoni Capital Podcast
Reading 13Fs While the Crowd Chases SanDisk
I open on the SanDisk CEO's Squawk Box clip about dampening the cyclicality of memory, and while it is a good company I would rather own the SMH than pick…