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Why a September Rate Hike Would Be a Bigly Mistake
Markets started the morning pulling back, with oil spiking after US strikes on Iran's Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, drawing a retaliation of course by Iran. 10YR pushing toward a YTD high as well. On the Fed, I stick with my view that Warsh holds in September and was mostly posturing to walk back his dovish July tone, while acknowledging that prediction markets and people I respect, like Joseph Wang, lean toward a hike. Kevin Bagholder's contrarian call for a surprise cut also gets a fair hearing, since this is Trump's handpicked chair heading into midterm elections.
It's a heavy…
The skinny
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