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Hot CPI, Decent Bank Earnings, and My Margin Problem

September CPI came in hot at 3.7% against a 3.6% estimate, with core running 0.3% versus the 0.2% the street wanted, and the 10-year jumped to 5.3% on the print. Food was part of it, which is exactly what I have been warning about, between a tough year for AG, fertilizer costs, and overall energy-freight costs, I’m almost surprised we aren’t higher. A hotter number like this keeps a December rate hike very much on the table.

The bank earnings were better than mixed (in my opinion today). Goldman blew the doors off, and JPMorgan impressed me less on a rare FICC miss but more on its discipline…

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