Shows / Inside Prediction Markets
Inside Prediction Markets
Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 📈 Market Deep Dives 🎙️ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves…
Episodes
- Inside Prediction Markets
Perspectives From Our Trading Team: Building Tech & Trading Politics
This week, Kalshi raises $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation, Polymarket and Binance navigate recent hacks and we go behind the scenes with two members of…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Inside a Fully Manual Prediction Market Strategy: Where Human Judgment Finds an Edge
This week, Chris and Henry welcome trader Clay Alter to discuss his move from sportsbooks to live trading on Kalshi and Polymarket US. Clay breaks down his…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Trading Elections: Separating Narratives From Numbers
This week, Polymarket’s CEO allegedly used company funds to fly private, Matt Downs’ created a game lines analysis on X and we observe flat PM volume week over…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Finding Success in NBA Trading: From Top-Down to Modeling
This week, Seth, aka @Soarin22 on X, joins us to share how he went from an actuary to a full-time NBA trader and built a one-man trading operation with roughly…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Novig Climbs to #1 in Sports: What’s Behind the Downloads?
This week, we discuss the CFTC’s potential collaboration with the SEC, Novig’s climb to #1 in the App Store’s sports category and prediction markets’ growth as…
- Inside Prediction Markets
NFL Hype vs. Reality: Which Quarterbacks Are Worth Backing?
This week, @ssigsbee had his first losing month, Kalshi’s allowing margin trading and Novig hit $100 million in a single day! Then, we get into Survivor and…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Turning $100 to $1M on Prediction Markets: How to Build a Winning Operation
Our guest this week, @evenstevengg on X, started sports betting in 2022 with $100 on a sportsbook. Now he hasn't placed a sportsbook bet in months. We talk…
- Inside Prediction Markets
CFB vs. NFL Kickoff Weekend: Where the Real Volume Showed Up
Football is back! This week we discuss Pinnacle’s statement on X, FanDuel’s market making on Kalshi and where the vig gets applied differently depending on how…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Week 1 NFL Picks, Power Rankings & Why This Pro Bettor Is All-In on the L.A. Rams
This week, pro sports bettor Rob Pizzola (X: @robpizzola) joins us to break down Week 1 NFL matchups. He walks us through his background, his automated…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Legal Test Yet: Explained By Top Sports Betting Attorney
This week we discuss LSU reportedly using prediction markets to hedge Lane Kiffin-related bonuses, Donald Trump Jr.’s ties to the industry, the politics…
- Inside Prediction Markets
The Race to Dominate NFL Prediction Markets
This week, President Trump expressed his support of prediction markets in the U.S., our Novig CEO and co-founder Jacob had a CNBC feature and NFL players are…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Professional NFL Handicapper Reveals His Biggest Preseason Edges
We open this week with our 3 big things: Kalshi has a new 3.5% maker fee on RFQs, Underdog just released a new crash-style game and Novig passed Rothera in…
- Inside Prediction Markets
The Prediction Market Takeover Is Just Getting Started | BetBash 2026
For this week’s episode, we filmed in Las Vegas at BetBash 2026! We sat down with our good friend Pads to hear how he went from working as a chemical engineer…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Inside Novig’s New Market Making Firm: Manhattan Athletic Group (MAG)
Underdog just sold to IG group for $1.3 billion and the state of New York is suing Kalshi for $36 billion. This week we also discuss BetBash, the annual sports…
- Inside Prediction Markets
From Poker To Prediction Markets: How To Build A Profitable Operation
Netflix released a new documentary about prediction markets and is facing some backlash. Kalshi is threatening legal action towards Netflix based on some false…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Building a Winning Prediction Market Trading Team
Kalshi is rolling out compute forward curves and really expanding after World Cup markets have brought an insane wave of volume into prediction markets this…
- Inside Prediction Markets
How AI Gives You a Massive Edge on Prediction Markets
From Kalshi's new Pro trading terminal to the Bryce Harper FanDuel controversy, Henry and Chris discuss all the biggest stories this week. Importantly, they…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Malik Beasley EXPOSED, Prediction Market BANNED in Michigan, and World Cup Volume SHATTERING Records
A Michigan judge has banned Kalshi from offering sports contracts in the state unless they obtain an OSB license — and ordered $120,000 per day in fines if…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Inside the Mind of a 15-Year SIG Trader & The Future of Prediction Markets
Former Susquehanna International Group (SIG) trader Andrew Courtney (@andrewcourt1) joins the Optic Odds Hot Seat to discuss what it's really like inside one…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Optic Odds CEO on Powering the Industry + World Cup Volume Shattering Records
Matt Restivo, CEO of Optic Odds, joins Chris and Henry in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Matt traces the full origin story: from a Stanford dorm room startup called…
- Inside Prediction Markets
This NYC Bar Is Using Prediction Markets to Hedge Your Tab If the Knicks Win
A New York City bar is covering every customer's tab if the Knicks win game one — and they're hedging the entire risk on a prediction market. Chris and Henry…
- Inside Prediction Markets
The Insider's Guide to Prediction Market Terminology: Defining the Terms You Need to Know
Kyle Kuzma — yes, the NBA player — became an unlikely prediction market hero this week by clapping back at the DraftKings co-founder's Twitter tirade. Then…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Matt Kalish Crashes Out + 4casters Zach on the Future of Prediction Markets
Matt Kalish — co-founder of DraftKings — had a very public meltdown on Twitter this week about prediction markets, and Chris and Henry break down every angle…
- Inside Prediction Markets
The Insider's Guide to Market Making on Prediction Markets
What actually is market making? If you've ever asked yourself that question, this is the episode for you.FanDuel and DraftKings just announced they're market…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Big Prediction Market Ghost Orders Scandal and How One Market Maker Beats Every Exchange
Polymarket had a rough week — and Chris and Henry break down both stories. First: ghost orders Then: their CMO was caught on a live stream nearly whispering…
- Inside Prediction Markets
The Maduro Insider Trading Scandal and Shipper on How Sharps Actually Win
A U.S. soldier was just prosecuted by the DOJ for betting $400,000 on a prediction market using classified military intelligence about the Maduro situation —…
- Inside Prediction Markets
The Insider's Guide to Getting Hired at a Prediction Market
Chris and Henry pull back the curtain on what it actually takes to get hired at a prediction market company. They start with their own stories — how Chris…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Ohio Is Trying to Kill Sports Betting + Harry Crane on the Fascinating Kelly Criterion Debate
Ohio just introduced a bill that would effectively kill online sports betting in the state. Chris and Henry break down why it's unlikely to pass but why it…
- Inside Prediction Markets
How To Bet The Masters + Novig Is Giving Away 500K
Novig is at The Masters — LIV golfers including Jon Rahm and Cam Smith are wearing the Novig patch, and the Blue Blazer Jackpot is live on the app. Enter once…
- Inside Prediction Markets
The NFL Just Put Prediction Markets on Notice: A Potential Victory For All?
The NFL just asked prediction markets to stop listing easily manipulated outcomes — draft picks, announcer mentions, attendance markets — and Chris and Henry…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Arizona Just Filed Criminal Charges Against a Prediction Market
A state just filed criminal charges against a prediction market for the first time in U.S. history — and that's just where this week starts. Chris and Henry…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky on Why Prediction Markets Will Win
Prediction markets are exploding — and Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky is right in the middle of it.In this episode of Inside Prediction Markets, we sit down with…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Are Prediction Markets Actually Worth Their Jaw-Dropping $20B Valuation?
Prediction markets are suddenly being valued like Silicon Valley unicorns. But are those numbers real — or just hype?This week on Inside Prediction Markets…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Do Death Markets Actually Exist? Iran’s Fall Exposes a $54M Betting Scandal
The debate around prediction markets just exploded. After more than $54 million was wagered on whether Iran’s Supreme Leader would fall from power, traders…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Did Obama Start an Alien Market Frenzy?
This week, the markets went into a frenzy. From extraterrestrial leaks to massive winter storms, the guys are breaking down who cashed in and who’s full of…
- Inside Prediction Markets
Why the feds are fighting with states about prediction market regulation
The gloves are off! The federal government is demanding that states stand down on efforts to regulate and restrict prediction markets. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig…