Shows / The Spillover
The Spillover
Every geopolitical event — a war, an election, a new tariff, a technological breakthrough — sends ripples through the global economy. On The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and her guests trace those ripples, examining how international developments shape markets, policy, finance, and the future of business.
Episodes
- The Spillover
Transactional U.S. Foreign Policy + Who Are America’s Friends Now?
The Trump administration is pursuing a transactional style of U.S. foreign policy, leaving friends and adversaries uncertain about what Washington wants. This…
- The Spillover
Brazil’s Runoff Election Is a Close Race Between Lula and Bolsonaro
Brazil’s runoff is a dead heat, but markets are betting that Flávio Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, will win and finally rein in the country’s…
- The Spillover
Lame Ducks, Black Swans, and the 2026 Midterm Elections
With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections just weeks away, Rebecca Patterson and Veda Partners Cofounder Henrietta Treyz discuss an impending confrontation over the…
- The Spillover
What We Got Right (and Wrong) This Year
This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack what they got right—and wrong—in their forecasts over the course of the year…
- The Spillover
Central Banks in a Bind + Could AI Replace the FOMC?
This week on The Spillover, hosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International…
- The Spillover
Why Won’t Europe Do More For Ukraine? + The Rise of Pro-Russia Populism
This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson sit down with author and historian Anne Applebaum to discuss Europe, the ongoing war…
- The Spillover
Nvidia Bets Big on Hugging Face + Sebastian Sashimi + AI-Powered Toothbrushes
This week, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack Nvidia’s deal to purchase Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight AI models. The…
- The Spillover
Can the U.S. ‘Grow’ Its Way Out of Debt? + Taxing Wealth in the Age of AI
This week, host Rebecca Patterson speaks with Natasha Sarin, law professor and cofounder of the Yale Budget Lab, to unpack Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s…
- The Spillover
The U.S. Buys Stake in a Venezuelan Oil Company + Why Efficiency Is the Real Path to Energy Security
This week, host Rebecca Patterson sits down with energy and climate expert Vijay Vaitheeswaran to discuss the U.S. government's acquisition of 35 percent…
- The Spillover
Could the AI Debt Problem Create the Next Financial Crisis?
The financing behind the AI boom has grown so large that treasury bond yields are approaching levels not seen since the leadup to the 2008 financial crisis…
- The Spillover
The Hosts Pick a Global AI Winner + The Advanced Economy Deployment Problem + The Question Even the Experts Can't Answer
Artificial intelligence has become the biggest variable in the U.S. economy, but is the country really positioned to win the global race for economic dominance…
- The Spillover
How China Is Quietly Winning the Iran War Energy Crisis
Five months of war in Iran have completely reshaped energy markets. This week, the Baker Institute’s Kristian Coates Ulrichsen joins Rebecca Patterson and…
- The Spillover
Spillover Summer Reading: The Best Books on Forecasting, Silicon Valley, and the Future
In this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby swap summer reading recommendations, including fiction and nonfiction picks covering…
- The Spillover
Jordan Schneider Thinks the Real AI Race Is About Compute, Not Models
In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby sits down with Jordan Schneider, founder and editor-in-chief of the ChinaTalk podcast and newsletter…
- The Spillover
The AI Trilemma + Open-Weight Proliferation + the “Singularity Delusion”
In this episode, The Spillover’s Sebastian Mallaby is hosted by Dan Kurtz-Phelan, editor of Foreign Affairs, to discuss the “AI trilemma”—the challenge U.S…
- The Spillover
Rahm Emanuel Talks Israel, Midterm Elections, and the Democratic Party
Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Rahm Emanuel, who served as President Bill Clinton’s political strategist, President Barack Obama’s first…
- The Spillover
Washington Considers a Stake in OpenAI + Altman’s Gambit + America, Inc.
On this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby, joined by CFR expert Jonathan Hillman, examine the U.S. government's rapidly growing…
- The Spillover
Gold vs. Bitcoin Showdown
Cohosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby stage a friendly debate over two so-called dollar alternatives—gold and bitcoin—weighing whether either has…
- The Spillover
Two Brits Unpack America’s 250th Birthday + The Cultural Civil War
America’s 250th birthday is the talk of the nation. But the more important story might be what the milestone reveals about the fragile bargain between…
- The Spillover
What Will the Fed Become Under Chair Kevin Warsh? + Greenspan's Legacy
In this episode of The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger W. Ferguson Jr. reflect on the legacy of recently deceased…
- The Spillover
"A Job Beats a Handout" + Why the World Bank Is Betting Everything on Employment
In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby and CFR President Michael Froman speak with former U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and World…
- The Spillover
SpaceX Goes Public + What IPOs Tell Us About Capital Markets
The scale of the SpaceX IPO is dominating financial headlines, but the more important story might be what the sale reveals about the structure of modern…
- The Spillover
China’s $735B Trade Surplus + How Beijing Masks Its Holdings + The G7 Debates Global Imbalances
This episode unpacks why the trade and investment imbalances between the United States and China have grown to record levels despite years of pressure to…
- The Spillover
Japan Rearms + Guns vs. Butter + Global Defense Spending Boom
As governments around the world ramp up defense spending, a new era of rearmament is reshaping economies, markets, inflation, and politics. This episode…
- The Spillover
Data Centers In Space? + Planet Labs CEO Talks ‘Large Earth Models’
AI and satellite imagery are quickly converging to create “planetary intelligence,” a new generation of systems capable of capturing and analyzing images of…
- The Spillover
Trump-Xi + Mutually Assured Disruption + Boeing, Beef, and Beans
President Donald Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping in Beijing for a high-stakes summit shaped by Iran war tensions, trade disputes, critical mineral flows…
- The Spillover
Are Prediction Markets Forecasting Tools or Virtual Casinos?
Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in…
- The Spillover
K-Shaped Economies + Affordability Crisis + Trump vs. Mamdani Populism
This episode unpacks the concept of a K-shaped economy, examines how AI, war, and climate shocks may be widening inequality within and between countries, and…
- The Spillover
Is the Gulf Still the Capital of Capital? + How War Could Hurt America’s Tech Funding
This episode explores how the Gulf region transformed into a global “capital of capital,” and the risk of the Iran conflict disrupting that role. It examines…
- The Spillover
The Hormuz Shock + Why the Fed is “On Hold”
Live from Washington, DC, this episode unpacks how war, AI, financial innovation, and global institutions are reshaping monetary policy, market stability, and…
- The Spillover
The Oppenheimer of AI + Mailbag Contest Winners
This episode unpacks cohost Sebastian Mallaby’s new book The Infinity Machine and answers audience questions on AI, dollar dominance, the impact of Trump’s…
- The Spillover
Private Credit's Black Box + Why It's Not 2008 (But Still Risky)
This episode dives into how the opaque growth and structural risks in private credit, combined with global supply shocks and market stress spurred by the Iran…
- The Spillover
U.S.-China AI Race Escalates + Chip Bans Aren’t Working + A Lesson From Nuclear Proliferation
This episode unpacks the evolving U.S.-China AI rivalry, the limits of technological export controls, and what’s really at stake as both countries race to…
- The Spillover
Iran War Spirals + Oil Shocks Keep Coming + China’s Advantage
As the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran escalates, global markets are absorbing the shocks: oil prices are swinging, inflation expectations are rising, and…
- The Spillover
Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations” Turns 250 + Free Markets Face Off Against Industrial Policy
On the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, this episode revisits a book that laid the foundations of modern economics and then considers…
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Iran War Ignites Oil-Shock Stagflation Fears + Who Really Controls the Energy Market?
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are disrupting energy markets. Iran’s production capacity has been hit, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been closed, and…
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The AI Bubble + The Productivity Paradox + India’s AI Summit
Is there an AI bubble, or just an OpenAI bubble? Markets remain focused on whether valuations can be justified by sufficiently fast revenue growth, while the…
- The Spillover
U.S. Supreme Court Rules Against Trump’s Tariffs
In a 6-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the government’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), holding that the statute…
- The Spillover
The “European Onion” + China, Brazil, and India Take On MAGA
European leaders are at an inflection point. After high-level meetings in Munich and Brussels, they must decide what role Europe will play in the unfolding new…
- The Spillover
Japan’s Heavy Metal PM + Political Threats to Markets + China’s Sad Horse
This episode examines the “Fragile Four” economies—the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and France—and why politics is increasingly spilling into…
- The Spillover
Introducing The Spillover
How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global…