Japan’s Heavy Metal PM + Political Threats to Markets + China’s Sad Horse

The Spillover · Feb 12, 2026 · 38m

This episode examines the “Fragile Four” economies—the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and France—and why politics is increasingly spilling into financial markets. After a long stretch where markets largely shrugged off political volatility, an “age of inflation” coupled with high debt, aging demographics, rising defense spending, and anxious populations across the Fragile Four are making markets more reactive to political shocks. We break down what’s driving the shift and why cracks are appearing now.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International…