Are Prediction Markets Forecasting Tools or Virtual Casinos?

The Spillover · May 5, 2026 · 46m

Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Christy Goldsmith Romero, Former Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

We discuss:

How prediction markets are turning the world into a “casino” where you…