Shows / Trade with Conviction
Trade with Conviction
In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.
Episodes
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 118: Midterms shake the war premium. Where do flows go?
Felipe Elink Schuurman, Abhishek Kumar and Nikolas Plonski discuss how the midterms are affecting the Iran war premium. They cover Hormuz flows, AG crude and…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 117: Hormuz attacks, a Democratic Congress and a market nobody can call
James Noel-Beswick hosts Aaron Kildow, Michael Ryan and Jay Maroo as Brent falls about 20% in a week on Iran strikes and talks. They cover what the US midterms…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 116: Iran hits more tankers but crude still flows. China and freight swing refining margins
Jorge Molinero hosts June Goh and Michael Ryan as Iran’s tanker attacks escalate ahead of US elections. They cover Basra discounts, Aramco term talks, China’s…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 115: Hormuz on edge, cautious signals beneath the surface.
Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Jay Maroo, Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero unpack Iran's shift from blocking Hormuz to policing it, mounting strikes on Saudi and…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 114: Hormuz exports are back near pre-war levels. The military escalations haven't stopped.
Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Michael Ryan, Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski unpack Hormuz exports rebounding near pre-war levels despite daily tanker attacks, VLCC…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 113: ICE gasoil cracks remain over $85/bbl. China's export ban cuts deep
Host June Goh welcomes Sparta colleagues James Noel-Beswick and Jorge Molinero to unpack the diesel crisis: why global stocks have hit 10-year lows, how…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 112: A diesel ban looms. HOGO reacts. Freight markets in limbo.
Felipe Elink-Schuurman, June Goh and Michael Ryan unpack the potential US diesel export ban, the Saudi pipeline attack and Russian refinery strikes reshaping…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 111: Saudi's pipeline is down. Every barrel funnels back through Hormuz.
Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Jay Maroo, Aaron Kildow and James Noel-Beswick break down the Petroline pipeline strike forcing Saudi crude back through Hormuz…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 110: Houthis seize Mocha. Brent breaks $100. What now?
James Noel-Beswick hosts Nikolas Plonski and Jorge Molinero as Iran-US escalation, Houthi attacks on Mokka and Russian refinery strikes push Brent through…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 109: Kirishi's hit, Hormuz is live again: diesel has nowhere left to hide
Felipe Elink Schuurman, Abhishek Kumar, Michael Ryan and Jay Maroo cover the Iran-US escalation and Kirishi refinery strike, then break down a diesel market…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 108: Iran and Oman talk peace. A tanker gets hit anyway.
Jay Maroo hosts Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski as Hormuz de-escalation talk collides with a fresh tanker strike. Aaron unpacks the US SPR's final barrels and…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 107: Diesel cracks blow past 100$. Dirty freight surging.
Felipe Elink Schuurman is joined by James Noel-Beswick and Michael Ryan as Trump threatens Oman and squeezes Iran's UAE-run cash flows. Russian refinery…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 106: Iran goes on the offensive. ADNOC's great milk run keeps flowing.
June Goh hosts this week with guest Jay Maroo, as Iran hardens its military stance and Hormuz risk lingers. They cover IEA and OPEC's diverging demand calls…
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Episode 105: Hormuz flips again and gasoline cracks get smashed
June Goh hosts Neil Crosby and Abhishek Kumar as Hormuz talks flip on and off again, smashing gasoline cracks. They cover Iranian tanker pileups, China's…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 104: Brent whipsaws and USGC 3:2:1 margins explode. The diesel crisis behind it
June Goh hosts Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero as Brent swings from $100 to $85 to $93 in a week. They cover Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Suez…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 103: The Houthis hit Yanbu. Where does crude go now?
Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels loading at Yanbu leave seven million barrels of crude searching for a route. Felipe Elink Schuurman, James Noel-Beswick and Jay…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 102: The ceasefire is dead. Why is crude still asleep?
Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and Jay Maroo on the collapsed Iran ceasefire, Brent's jump from 72 to 85, and the market fatigue no one's pricing. Diesel…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 101: Russia bans diesel, Hormuz reignites. What breaks first?
June Goh hosts her first episode with Abhishek Kumar as the US-Iran ceasefire cracks and Hormuz transits collapse to near zero. They cover Brent flipping back…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 100: The great divergence: crude collapses while products rally
Felipe Elink Schuurman and research heads Neil Crosby, James Noel-Beswick, and Jorge Molinero mark episode 100 analyzing crude's peak weakness versus…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 99: Brent flips to contango. Is the crude crisis over?
Neil Crosby, June Goh and Abhishek Kumar unpack Brent's shock flip into contango as Hormuz reopens and AG crude floods back. Dubai swaps at minus one, the…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 98: Iran signs, crude breaks $80, but we're now oversold
Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and James Noel-Beswick dig into the signed Iran-US MOU and a market pricing rapid de-escalation. Crude under $80, Dubai…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 97: Hormuz transits accelerate but risk is high.
Neil Crosby hosts with Michael Ryan and June Goh. Growing Hormuz transits, a record 262 VLCC orders, Atlantic tonnage oversupply, softening Dubai premiums, and…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 96: Peace deal merry-go-round continues
Felipe Elink Schuurman hosts Neil Crosby and first-time guest Jay Maroo. The episode covers the stalled US-Iran peace process, Hormuz transit at 10% of…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 95: Risk-off and short-term solvers, but it won't last.
Neil Crosby and June Goh cut through the noise on US-Iran deal speculation, unpacking why flat price is off, what 7 million bpd of Chinese crude imports means…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 94: The largest stock draw in history. Oil barely moved.
Felipe Elink Schuurman, June Goh, and new analyst Abhishek Kumar cover a record 19.5mb stock draw that barely moved prices, the Russia OFAC waiver with no new…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 93: No Iran deal yet. US stocks are draining. What breaks first?
Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and James Noel-Beswick cover the stalling Iran deal, Karg Island's loading disruption, US diesel and gasoline stocks…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 92: Iran talks spin. US diesel stocks are running out of runway.
Neil Crosby hosts with June Goh and Jorge Molinero. Iran deal uncertainty keeps markets trading headlines as US diesel stocks head for critical lows within…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 91: Asia absorbed the initial shock. Now the US is running dry.
Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and Jorge Molinero on the crisis shifting West. Neil unpacks a 25-million-barrel US stock draw and trade ideas across…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 90: The market is exhausted. The crisis is not.
Felipe Elink-Schuurman and June Goh cover the FT Commodities conference, where major trading house CEOs signalled no short-term resolution to Hormuz. June runs…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 89: The blockade is here. Now what?
Host Neil Crosby talks with June Goh and Michael Ryan about a week of conflicting signals on Iranian vessels, accelerating refinery run cuts across Asia, and…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 88: The ceasefire that changed nothing. Where does oil go from here?
The ceasefire is two days old. Nothing has changed on the water. Sea mines in the channel. IRGC still threatening vessels. No owners willing to move. Hormuz…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 87: Diesel's unfolding crisis: Demand destruction is the only fix
In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Felipe, Phil, and James break down the supply crisis rattling every product market, and where traders can find edge…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 86: Headline chaos: price suppression, weak forward margins, West-East barrels flowing
Paper market has been calm… but physical still flashes risk. In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, we break down a market that doesn’t add up. Middle…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 85: Trump blinks on Iran. The trade is in the spreads, not the headline
In this emergency episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, host Felipe is joined by analysts June and Neil to break down one of the most volatile weeks in…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 84: South Pars hit. Escalation was fast. What happens to oil from here?
The war in the Middle East escalated again. Israel struck South Pars. Iran responded with attacks on Ras Laffan and Saudi refineries. And as this episode was…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 83: SPR releases vs supply outages: Can governments stop the oil shock?
This episode focused on how the escalating conflict is moving beyond headline risk and into a full physical market disruption, with tanker attacks, port…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 82: Hormuz stays shut: products, freight and the real market squeeze
This emergency episode unpacks the market fallout from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and why the real issue is no longer just crude, but the…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 81: Oil at War: Sparta live podcast
In this emergency episode, the team unpacks the fast moving market impact of the Iran conflict, focusing on how disruptions are showing up first through…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 80: Strait of Hormuz disruption: Freight shock, cracks surge, and what traders must watch next
In this special episode, the team reacts to the sudden escalation in the Middle East following attacks involving Iran, Israel and the US, focusing on the…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 79: Iran brinkmanship, freight shock and margins under pressure
In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks a market caught between geopolitics and structural freight disruption. From high-stakes Iran…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 78: Iran stretches paper markets to breaking point
In this episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, the Sparta team breaks down what's moving oil markets, not just in Iran, but Russian crude switching…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 77: Live from IE Week: The battle for fundamental fair value in an age of geopolitical disruption
In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction - live from IE Week in London - the team unpacks the growing disconnect in global energy markets: clear signs of…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 76: Rising pressure on Russian oil flows
Oil markets were driven by geopolitics this week, with Iran-related headlines triggering sharp swings in price. In this episode of Trade with Conviction, the…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 75: Iran risk premium, glut reality
This week’s episode breaks down a market being pulled in two directions: geopolitical risk is driving flat price higher, while physical balances and…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 74: Geopolitics first, balances second: What is really driving oil markets
This episode steps back from day to day price noise to examine how geopolitics is increasingly shaping oil markets across crude and products. The team unpacks…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 73: Iran, Venezuela, Russia; the oil triple-threat
In this episode, the team breaks down how a fragile, two sided oil market is being shaped by geopolitics rather than fundamentals. With Venezuela, Iran and…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 72: Venezuela shocks the market: heavy sour pressure and the global crude reshuffle
The team kicks off 2026 by unpacking why flat price looks deceptively calm while physical markets are quietly shifting underneath. The discussion spans…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 71: Crude tidings: Oil market wrap-up & 2026 forecast
In the final episode of the year, the team breaks down the key macro and geopolitical drivers shaping Q1 2026 and what they mean for the physical barrel. They…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 70: What does 2026 really look like for the oil market?
In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team breaks down the biggest questions shaping next year’s crude, margins, and demand outlook - and what…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 69: Fog of war thickens
In this episode, the team breaks down an unusually long crude market, muted price reactions to geopolitical risk, and what shifting tone from OPEC’s latest…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 68: Ukraine headlines, tight gasoline, and the missing crude glut
Neil, Phil, and James unpack a week where headline noise around a possible Ukraine peace deal clashes with still tight product markets and a supposedly long…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 67: Russian threats squeeze oil markets and push product prices higher
In this week’s episode, Neil steps in as host as the team unpacks a chaotic stretch in the oil market - from Russian export disruptions and the uncertain…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 66: Inside the refining crunch: Saudi supply shifts & sanctions fallout
This episode breaks down a week of tightening global oil product markets - from Saudi Arabia’s surprising crude allocations and renewed sanctions turbulence to…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 65: Peak fear and the return to normal: Crude markets find their footing
In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Rachel, Neil, and June dissect the current crude oil landscape - from easing sanctions anxiety and shifting Chinese…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 64: Sanctions, spreads & suspense: Oil markets brace for OPEC’s weekend mood
In this week’s Trade with Conviction, Rachel, Phil, and James cut through another whirlwind week in oil markets. From Lukoil’s asset fire sale and CPC…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 63: Sanctions rally! But the devil is in the detail
In this episode of Trade with Conviction, hosts Rachel Williams, Philip Jones-Lux, and Neil discuss the seismic shifts in the oil market triggered by overnight…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 62: US-China tensions re-ignite at a bad time for oil
In this episode of Trade with Conviction, a Sparta podcast, the hosts examine how escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and China are shaping the oil…
- Trade with Conviction
Episode 61: Oil defying contango...for now
In this week's Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, Rachel Williams, Neil Crosby, and June dive into the oil market's most telegraphed glut, dissecting OPEC's recent…
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Episode 60: Writing on the Wall: The crude glut is here, with global exports booming, and structure crumbling
In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, host Rachel Williams, alongside analysts Jorge and Neil, dissects the latest oil market dynamics. The…
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Episode 59: Russia reels, diesel dips: Ukraine’s drone chaos sparks Q4 squeeze
In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook podcast, host Rachel Williams teams up with analysts James and Neil to dissect a turbulent week in oil markets…