Episode 74: Geopolitics first, balances second: What is really driving oil markets

Trade with Conviction · Jan 22, 2026 · 31m

This episode steps back from day to day price noise to examine how geopolitics is increasingly shaping oil markets across crude and products. The team unpacks the easing but unresolved US EU trade tensions, Venezuela’s uncertain return to market, and why Iran remains a background risk. From there, the discussion moves into how these geopolitical risks are keeping crude structures tight despite looser balances, before diving into physical crude flows, Indian buying behaviour, blending economics, and the knock on effects for freight and refining margins. The episode rounds out with a detailed…