Episode 79: Iran brinkmanship, freight shock and margins under pressure

Trade with Conviction · Feb 26, 2026 · 30m

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks a market caught between geopolitics and structural freight disruption. From high-stakes Iran negotiations and US tariff shocks to VLCC rates tripling in two months, we break down how crude flows, refining margins, and arbitrage economics are being reshaped in real time.

(01:01) Geopolitics: Iran, Tariffs and OPEC

The team breaks down the Iran negotiations, US tariff upheaval, China and India leverage, and what OPEC’s next move could mean for flat price direction.

(08:05) Distillates: Extreme Strength and Europe’s Ceiling

Diesel…