Shows / Eurodollar University
Eurodollar University
Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.
Episodes
Eurodollar UniversityKey data shows the situation is critical and it keeps coming in worse, not better.
Crisis borrowing at the Fed's emergency BTFP surged this week to a new high as #bankingcrisis grows critical. We're seeing more and more signs of serious…
Eurodollar UniversityPrices aren't just falling at a faster rate there, world's second economy is now falling apart.
Both producer and consumer prices in #china fell again in the month of May as global #recession continues to hammer the Chinese economy. Though central banks…
Eurodollar UniversityThe last seasonal low point for liquidity unleashed the first wave of the banking crisis.
The global #dollar system is at its weakest point at these specific calendar spots, most susceptible to #collateral problems causing #deflation in #money. With…
Eurodollar UniversityFirst mistake is being impatient with a banking crisis. Second is not paying attention to China.
Central banks in Australia and Canada ended their short #ratehikes #interestrates pause, ignoring the global #recession risks China just reminded everyone…
Eurodollar UniversityThis is not some future problem. It is happening right now.
We can actually see #deflation right now in the form of falling producer prices. Europe reported a record drop in its PPI which has major implications starting…
Eurodollar UniversityGlobal resignation: we've finally reached the point where very nearly everything is giving in.
Deflation and recession are everywhere. Almost. Of the few holdouts, only some of the US labor data starting with the least serious of the accounts. Apart from…
Eurodollar UniversityDesperate act confirms global recession conditions.
Saudis try for #oilpricehike but #oil runs instead into unmovable #recession. The real #economy continues to weaken which means demand is dominating market…
Eurodollar UniversityThe global market crash everyone sees but no one wants to talk about.
#realestate and property #assetbubble across the world is going bust risking a renewed #bankcrisis plus #recession the US. The situation in #China with…
Eurodollar UniversityThis doesn't fit at all with what everyone is saying about jobs and the economy.
Payroll report (CES) shows steady growth in top-line jobs though anything but everywhere else. Hours are being outright cut while employment (CPS) was down big…
Eurodollar UniversityAnother crucial milestone you shouldn't miss.
Inflation pressures are disappearing as deflation and recession conditions continue to take over. The Federal Reserve won't be able to keep up its interest…
Eurodollar UniversityCredit crunch is spreading throughout Europe, already reaching deflationary crisis proportions.
Oil can't catch a sustained bid, too easily falling right back into contango. With the US debt ceiling agreement (in principle), rates markets worldwide can…
Eurodollar UniversityIt's the incomes, stupid.
Everyone loves GDP including the government agency which calculates it. Even so, GDI has been a more useful signal for cyclical changes, particularly peaks…
Eurodollar UniversityWhy it is always the government for these things.
Structural inflation or something else. To mainstream Economists, consumer prices are being driven by structural forces such as demographics, oil production…
Eurodollar UniversityAn escalating series of monetary tremors still shaking the eurodollar's world.
Trying to figure out the state of the economy and monetary system by looking backward through consumer price estimates is, well, backward. To understand where…
Eurodollar UniversityIt is going to get a lot worse before any chance of getting better.
German GDP revisions show the country already mired in recession despite the government's assurances there wouldn't be one. And to reemphasize the global…
Eurodollar UniversityWhy there is so much near-certainty about the worst case.
The deflationary wave sweeping the global system isn't one thing or another, it is becoming all the things everywhere. That's what makes such a compelling case…
Eurodollar UniversitySupply cuts just can't keep up with banking crisis, recession, and now unleashed dollar "bull."
Saudi Arabia's oil minister implicitly threatened more action from OPEC due to "low" prices and growing short positions betting against supply constraints…
Eurodollar UniversityProving once again it's the Euro$'s world. When it goes bad, there's nothing to do but lie.
The LIBOR scandal won't go away because it hasn't been properly identified. Govts and officials have alleged it was banks who misbehaved when all along it may…
Eurodollar UniversityWith deposits still falling, govt/Wall St trying desperately to figure out what to do.
Treasury Secretary Yellen held talks with major Wall Street CEOs and bank advisors, raising the subject of further bank mergers. Though that part of the…
Eurodollar UniversityBanks disclosed the "trigger for systemic risk" as they see it from the inside. It's not rate hikes.
Everyone remotely familiar with banking over the last few years knows there's systemic risk and it starts with commercial real estate (CRE). The Fed's very own…
Eurodollar UniversityThe dollar isn't crashing, it is surging again and at the worst time.
WTI futures curve moved further in contango, now joined by another major milestone for the dollar bull-ying its way across Asia. China's yuan has slumped…
Eurodollar UniversityCrude flips again just as retailers warn and business sales drop.
The expression "slowly at first, then all at once" can describe an economy's descent into nasty recession. There are warning signs all over starting with WTI…
Eurodollar UniversityHuge misses, weakness across-the-board show immediate, severe fallout from banking/credit crisis.
China's reopening is dead and buried. The country's government reported truly sobering economic data that proved beyond any doubt there is nothing left to it…
Eurodollar UniversityShocking reasons these crucial indications are down so much. Way beyond 2008.
Forward rates and forward rate spreads have substantially deteriorated since March. They were already more inverted than at any time in 2007 leading up to…
Eurodollar UniversityMay reports show consumers, small businesses facing big trouble.
Consumer confidence fell sharply in two recent surveys, as recession fears and banking woes deepen rather than fade. Small businesses facing the same pressures…
Eurodollar UniversityThey keep pushing rate hikes and short sellers as reason for bank woes when can see it's not.
Because so many of us focus so much on US banks, and US banks are making it easy to do this, it's also easy to lose sight of the fact this crisis is far from…
Eurodollar UniversityWe have a very good - better than very good - idea where all this is going.
As expected, not only is another bank in danger of failing, they're blaming short sellers for it. Jamie Dimon made the ridiculous comments today as major…
Eurodollar UniversityThe problem isn't just bank failures. What is causing them and what it is going to do.
Deflationary money leads to a deflationary economy which has to be disinflationary first. We keep getting "anomalies" in the monetary system (interest rate…
Eurodollar UniversityBig global problems behind lower oil prices, from US banks to the total wipeout in China.
The Chinese reported renewed declines for their imports, including a big one in crude oil. When OPEC announced production cuts, they could see China wasn't…
Eurodollar UniversityBanking crisis isn't just US regional banks. Europe's banking system might be in worse shape.
Bad steepening in global curves from Treasuries to German bunds even French Obligations assimilables du Trésor (OATs). Regional banks have gotten all the…
Eurodollar UniversityThe alarming dollar connections between oil plunge and Germany's sudden and shocking collapse.
It was not a good week for long oil traders or those betting on the economy and inflation. Prices were down huge Monday and Tuesday last week before suffering…
Eurodollar UniversityBig downward revisions to prior months payrolls plus the hours data showing growing contraction.
The April payroll report came out and the topline figure was far from terrible. Some might say it was pretty darn good. As usual, it is the rest of the…
Eurodollar UniversityConditions have rapidly deteriorated. Bad steepening has hit both ends. Rate cuts now close.
Both the Fed and ECB hiked rates this week (in successive days), each claiming inflation is still their greatest threat. German and Treasury markets didn't…
Eurodollar UniversityEveryone now betting on the avalanche as crisis worsens, completely ignoring final Fed rate hike.
Who cares about the Fed's (final) rate hike? You shouldn't. While chasing inflation risks that don't exist, instead markets are hedged and priced for serious…
Eurodollar UniversityBad banks. Bad data. Bad curves. Bad everything today as the crisis' next stage moves in.
Despite some relative calm yesterday after First Republic's failure, today was anything but as huge hedging in markets along with more turmoil in the broader…
Eurodollar UniversityDeflationary fallout begins to emerge in this one place no one was expecting.
Deflationary fallout has become visible and almost unmistakable in the one place which was supposed to save us from that very outcome. China's economy is…
Eurodollar UniversityWhat it it's not just one or two, but all of them? The next step will be crucial.
Another major US bank failed - First Republic - and the markets barely moved because this is all in the context of deflationary money. If so, we know where…
Eurodollar UniversityThere is a lot more going on here than just one, no two, now three banks.
First Republic finally fails and on the same day the Fed's report on SVB is released. It says SVB was on outlier, a loner. But that only raises more questions…
Eurodollar UniversityWe haven't seen anything like these in a couple generations.
Both the yield curve's 3-month/10-year spread and the Fed's near term forward spread have nose-dived in April. The former by far at a record extreme (for…
Eurodollar UniversityWe're about to become a lot poorer and worse off. Govt demands you to just accept it.
Bank of England's Chief Economist tells Columbia University podcast that people need to accept that they're poorer and worse off, and to stop trying to do…
Eurodollar UniversityFear grips markets as participants realize nothing was fixed from last month.
Major buying the curves has pushed them back down to and even below the worst points since mid-March. Markets have never been more certain about what's coming…
Eurodollar UniversityNew data shows eruption from banking crisis. The gory details force mainstream media to acknowledge.
The transmission from deflationary money to a deflationary economy was always going to come from a credit crunch. Updated data shows the banking system remains…
Eurodollar UniversityFallout from disastrous March is already showing up in these places.
According to one source, tourism/attendance at Disney's main theme park in Orlando already dropped off a cliff. Hardly a surprise, the primary risk to the…
Eurodollar UniversityMoney market warnings have become too big (2008-ish) to ignore. Here come the excuses. Debt ceiling?
Something is going on with bills. There's a debt ceiling deadline looming. Two must be related, says the mainstream, otherwise the former would mean something…
Eurodollar UniversityJust insane collateral market action today shows deflationary money is getting worse.
Four-week bill yield plummeted by around 60 bps at one point in today's trading. Serious monetary pressures are still there, continue to get worse even a month…
Eurodollar UniversityTurmoil continues as dead canaries pile up in the Euro$ mines. People are noticing the carcasses.
Like Warren Buffett last week, this week Elon Musk issues grave warning about health of global banks. But why? Is it inflation run amok, or the world paying in…
Eurodollar UniversityHere comes the wrecking ball as everyone is chasing after dollars everywhere.
Brazil's President Lula traveled to Shanghai to finalize bilateral engagement bypassing the US dollar. This is not de-dollarization, rather an acknowledgement…
Eurodollar UniversityAlarming behavior of the fear ratio over the past two months shows no signs of stopping.
Where are we? Is there still a crisis? Is it over(blown)? The "fear ratio" helps sort out signal from so much noise. Since it sits at the intersection of…
Eurodollar UniversityWe're getting a better idea of how the banking crisis is progressing - no thanks to authorities.
The hawks are back at the Fed doing what Fed hawks always do. Beginning with overestimating their own tools, they then overestimate the resilience of the…
Eurodollar UniversityWarren Buffett didn't just make shocking comments on banking system, he's already acting on them.
This week was a wild one, including how during it legendary investor Warren Buffett said he was selling bank stocks because there were more failures still to…
Eurodollar UniversityStartling statement reveals far worse danger than just a recession.
First they said it was a growth scare. They told us to ignore inversions. Then they pointed to the unemployment rate and said there's no way we could have a…
Eurodollar UniversityMore big trouble in global money system together with US CPI numbers. Major fallout continues.
Just as the interest rate swap market had indicated, big collateral scarcity as 4w Tbill rates yesterday plummeted. Also, Japanese bills for more confirmation…
Eurodollar UniversityHuge moves in key spreads, massive problems as authorities begin to admit there's real danger.
Alarming compression of interest rate swap spreads indicate more systemic issues in global balance sheet capacities and collateral, too. Also, the IMF reported…
Eurodollar UniversityNew data gives us badly needed details behind bank shock/crisis. What it means moving forward.
The Federal Reserve's H.8 data on US commercial banks shows just how much of a systemic shock the March seasonal bottleneck had produced. Institutions got hit…
Eurodollar UniversityProbabilities have rarely ever been this high. This is why.
Markets are pricing an imminent and sharp drop for interest rates. It's not just about the Fed and rate cuts. But with regard to those, history shows the…
Eurodollar UniversityThey can no longer deny the devastating effects of this crisis.
For all its bluster, the Federal Reserve very nearly paused its rate hikes last month for obvious reasons. Other central banks already have - two this week -…
Eurodollar UniversityAlmost a month later and the situation is deteriorating rapidly.
More extreme hedging swept global markets in morning trading, including another serious collateral run. As it did, curves have been distorted to an even more…
Eurodollar UniversityHuge moves today all over the place and the reasons why.
The one thing missing so far from the 2008-style scenario - mass layoffs - hinges entirely on whether businesses believe they can hold out for a second half…
Eurodollar UniversityMassive fallout US, China, global economy not to mention banking for the rest of this year.
Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC announced a surprising round of substantial and "voluntary" production cuts to combat sagging (not surging) crude oil prices. In…
- Eurodollar University
Real reason markets are betting more and more Fed is wrong and will be cutting rates very soon.
China's reopening just might be the last gasp, the final chance to escape the dreaded 2008-style scenario. If it fails, there is nothing left for the world to…