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Shocking reasons these crucial indications are down so much. Way beyond 2008.
Forward rates and forward rate spreads have substantially deteriorated since March. They were already more inverted than at any time in 2007 leading up to 2008. How could they be so much worse in 2023? You have to understand what forward rate spreads are telling us and why.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FOMC Transcript; June 2007
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20070628meeting.pdf
Ben Bernanke Congress Testimony; March 2007
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20070328a.htm
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The skinny
The skinny isn't ready yet — notes appear once the transcript is processed.