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Banks disclosed the "trigger for systemic risk" as they see it from the inside. It's not rate hikes.
Everyone remotely familiar with banking over the last few years knows there's systemic risk and it starts with commercial real estate (CRE). The Fed's very own Financial Stability Report for May 2023 exposes the details behind the scenes. With CRE prices falling for the first time in over a decade, valuations will eventually have to be adjusted and then all bets are off. Literally.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FOMC Transcript: Oct 2008 call
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20081007confcall.pdf
FOMC Transcript: Sept 2008 meeting…
The skinny
The skinny isn't ready yet — notes appear once the transcript is processed.