Shows / The Numbers
The Numbers
Éric Grenier and Philippe J. Fournier provide their unique perspective and analysis on federal and provincial politics across Canada. Become a Patron for full access to exclusive content!
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Episodes
- The Numbers
Eby made a huge mistake
David Eby’s B.C. New Democrats went down to defeat on Saturday, as Lorne Doerkson and the B.C. Conservatives took advantage of Eby’s early call to win in a (by…
- The Numbers
Alberta’s vote and the battle for BC
As the polls had predicted, the Remain side won the Alberta referendum in a landslide, as Albertans opted for the status quo in their province. But in…
- The Numbers
Will Eby’s snap call be a blunder for the ages?
Little more than a week remains in the B.C. election campaign that the NDP’s David Eby set in motion, two years ahead of schedule. The leaders debate took…
- The Numbers
Quebec wipeout, BC nail-biter
It’s not very often we see a party go from a landslide victory in one election to a complete wipeout in the next. But that’s what happened on Monday when the…
- The Numbers
Carney hits new highs, Conservatives risk new lows
Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to be walking on water in the polls, as new numbers put the Liberals and their leader at highs not seen before in recent…
- The Numbers
Was it a good idea for David Eby to call an election in BC?
B.C. Premier David Eby has staked his government on an early election, pitching to voters that U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to Canada’s economy and…
- The Numbers
An upset win in Alberta and a snap election in B.C.?
An investor’s summit, a trip to the European Union that could begin potentially closer ties in the future and, of course, there’s Donald Trump. There’s plenty…
- The Numbers
Carney gets his Trump bump
A few weeks ago we asked a question — will Mark Carney get another Trump bump? Well, we have the answer. And the answer is yes. Recent polls show that support…
- The Numbers
Liberals deal Poilievre a blow in byelections
Mark Carney’s Liberals scored three big wins in Monday’s byelections, taking a seat from the Conservatives and dealing the party another blow. What do the…
- The Numbers
Will Carney get another Trump bump?
It’s been a tumultuous week on the U.S. trade relations file, as negotiations fell apart, tariffs and retaliatory tariffs were threatened and applied and…
- The Numbers
Pierre Poilievre's problematic polls
The polls over the last few weeks have not been kind to the Conservatives, as multiple surveys have put the party under the psychologically important threshold…
- The Numbers
Just how big is the Liberal lead, really?
New polls published over the last week agree that the Liberals are ahead — but are they ahead by a little, or by a lot? This week on The Numbers, we try to…
- The Numbers
Will Trump's new tariffs move the polls?
An otherwise relatively quiet political summer has been rocked again by U.S. President Donald Trump, as he is set to impose a new round of tariffs on Canada…
- The Numbers
Maybe we were wrong?
We’ll admit it when we might have been wrong — and the results of Monday’s byelection in Prince Edward Island suggest we might have been a bit too skeptical of…
- The Numbers
New leader, who dis?
Don’t you know who I am? For many Canadians, the answer is “no” when it comes to some of our political leaders. A new poll from Pollara suggests that very few…
- The Numbers
New Leaders Draft
With the start of another summer, it’s time to think about new beginnings — for political parties! This week, we’re doing something we haven’t done before…
- The Numbers
Will it be a cruel summer for Carney or Poilievre?
With the summer now getting started, a series of new polls suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals are starting the season in a good spot, while Pierre Poilievre’s…
- The Numbers
Aiming for redemption in the Quiz
The summer political season is just about to begin as MPs prepare to return to their ridings, so it’s time to take stock of where things stand in the polls…
- The Numbers
A new polling low for Poilievre?
More polls are showing some softening support for Mark Carney and the Liberals, while the NDP moves into double-digits. But the trend line isn’t conclusive —…
- The Numbers
Orange Crush or Orange Crushed?
In one corner, we have a Liberal slump and an NDP surge. In the other corner, we have Liberal dominance and a listless NDP. In both corners, the Conservatives…
- The Numbers
Will Alberta's referendum pit Conservatives vs. Conservatives?
Premier Danielle Smith has added a question on Alberta separation to the October 19 referendum ballot, a move that will have repercussions for the country and…
- The Numbers
Carney, Poilievre and Lewis. Buy or sell?
Mark Carney’s Liberals continue to hold their lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Avi Lewis and the New Democrats have yet to…
- The Numbers
Is Smith playing with matches in Alberta's referendum powder keg?
This week’s court ruling on the Alberta separation petition has only raised more questions about whether the province will be holding a referendum on…
- The Numbers
Carney's got the boomers — and the youths, too?
Mark Carney’s Liberals are still holding a lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, thanks in large part to their increased support among…
- The Numbers
Trio of vacancies to test Carney, Poilievre and Lewis
This past week, we’ve learned that NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice and Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson will be vacating their seats in the coming months. Nate…
- The Numbers
Pierre Poilievre now has time. Is that good or bad?
With a majority government now in place, Mark Carney isn’t likely to head back to the polls anytime soon. That gives Pierre Poilievre time to catch his breath…
- The Numbers
Majority means no election soon, right?
With the majority now secured, Mark Carney’s Liberals can look ahead to another 3.5 years in office without going back to the polls. That is, of course, if…
- The Numbers
Liberals sweep byelections, secure majority
The Liberals swept all three byelections yesterday, winning as expected in University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest and prevailing in a close fight with…
- The Numbers
Another MP crosses floor to Liberals ahead of Monday's byelections
It was rumoured to be in the offing, but on Wednesday news came of the surprising floor-crossing of Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong MP Marilyn Gladu from the…
- The Numbers
Carney's majority, Poilievre's challenge and Lewis's debut
Three federal byelections that could give Mark Carney a majority government are now less than two weeks away. Pierre Poilievre is trying out some new…
- The Numbers
Avi Lewis wins
Avi Lewis secured the NDP leadership in Winnipeg today, getting 56% of the vote on the first ballot. In this quick-hit episode of The Numbers, we give our…
- The Numbers
Is the NDP leadership Avi Lewis's to lose?
The most predictive indicator of most leadership races is money. And in the NDP leadership race, Avi Lewis has raised the most of it — by far. Does that make…
- The Numbers
Have we hit Carney's ceiling and Poilievre's floor?
With some polls suggesting the Liberals are nearing 50% support while the Conservatives are slipping toward 30%, one has to wonder: has Mark Carney hit his…
- The Numbers
Floor-crossing + Byelections = Carney majority?
Mark Carney’s Liberals have a majority in sight after adding Nunavut MP Lori Idlout to their ranks. The former New Democrats has pushed the Liberals to 170…
- The Numbers
Carney, Poilievre go abroad in search of wins
Both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre were overseas this week, as the prime minister made stops in India, Australia and Japan and the opposition leader visited…
- The Numbers
Carney's Liberals are up big in Alberta. Is it for real?
As the polling gap widens between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, a surprising new trend has emerged. In Alberta, three new polls…
- The Numbers
Poilievre on the ropes as Carney's majority in sight
With the decision of Edmonton Riverbend MP Matt Jeneroux to cross from the Conservatives over to the Liberals — rather than resign as he said he would back in…
- The Numbers
Liberals in majority territory, but there's no election — yet?
With the polls showing a spike in support for the Liberals, speculation has also spiked about an early election. What do the polls say about whether Mark…
- The Numbers
Poilievre prevails in Calgary but trails in the polls
Pierre Poilievre received 87.4% support in his leadership review at the Conservative convention in Calgary — a number we said in last week’s episode would be…
- The Numbers
Carney gets post-Davos bump as Poilievre falls further back
Following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at Davos last week, the polls appear to have shifted in his favour — and against that of Pierre Poilievre. With…
- The Numbers
Poilievre's negatives spike. Is it a blip or a problem?
With less than two weeks to go before Pierre Poilievre’s leadership review in Calgary, a new poll shows a spike in his negative ratings to a new high. Is it a…
- The Numbers
New year, new byelections?
Chrystia Freeland, the former cabinet minister and Liberal leadership contestant whose resignation letter was the final nail in the coffin of Justin Trudeau’s…
- The Numbers
Predicting 2026 in provincial politics
After tackling the year in federal politics to come, we now turn our attentions to the provincial scenes. In this second part of our Over/Under Contest, we set…
- The Numbers
Predicting 2026 in federal politics!
After the beating our predictions took in 2025, we’ve lifted ourselves up, dusted ourselves off and are once again ready to try to predict the political year…
- The Numbers
Poilievre suffers another blow as roller-coaster year comes to an end
One year ago today, Chrystia Freeland resigned from Justin Trudeau’s cabinet and kicked off a series of events that led to the Liberals winning re-election…
- The Numbers
Could the shake-up in B.C. be felt in Ottawa?
After months of caucus departures, expulsions and internal party turmoil, John Rustad finally resigned as leader of the B.C. Conservatives last week. Could…
- The Numbers
Mark Carney's hinge moment
Polls suggest that a majority of Canadians (including British Columbians), support building a new pipeline from Alberta to the north coast of B.C. But after…
- The Numbers
Will Carney have to choose between Alberta and BC?
Prime Minister Mark Carney is reportedly set to announce a new agreement with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith that could pave the way for a new pipeline to the…
- The Numbers
No election for now, but for how long?
It wasn’t entirely clear how the budget was going to get passed, but it did indeed get passed on Monday night thanks to the abstentions of a few Conservative…
- The Numbers
Is Pierre Poilievre's leadership on borrowed time?
Questions continue to surround the future of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre following the turmoil of budget week. Not only did the Conservatives lose…
- The Numbers
Budget, floor-crossing shake up Ottawa
Mark Carney’s Liberal government tabled what it called its ‘generational’ budget on Tuesday, promising a mix of spending and cuts and booking a big budget…
- The Numbers
Who should and shouldn't want an election?
There’s one week to go before Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government tables the budget. We still don’t know if it will pass a vote in the House of Commons…
- The Numbers
Is Pierre Poilievre's leadership in trouble?
Nobody within Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative caucus has publicly broken ranks with the leader, but calls for a change at the top of the party were given voice…
- The Numbers
Carney's delicate balancing act with Trump
The polls continue to show a narrow, but diminishing, advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals. But the polls also show that Canadians hold some complicated, and…
- The Numbers
Could a polarized electorate be the new normal?
For most of the four years between 2019 and 2023, the Liberals and Conservatives were deadlocked in the polls with each party hovering a little over 30%, give…
- The Numbers
Are Carney and Poilievre a boost or a drag on their parties?
Mark Carney seems to be more popular than his Liberals, while Pierre Poilievre seems to be less popular than his Conservatives. Are these numbers sustainable…
- The Numbers
What's the leadership review magic number?
It’s been a tough time for party leaders. After Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie resigned following her 57% leadership review score, Marit Stiles of the…
- The Numbers
Who will prop up Carney's Liberals?
The MPs are back in Ottawa and already the big question on Parliament Hill is whether or not the government will survive the budget vote later this fall. Just…
- The Numbers
Are we buying or selling on Carney and Poilievre?
Parliamentarians return to Ottawa next week for what will be the first showdown between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in…
- The Numbers
A tale of two NDPs
The first two serious contenders for the federal NDP leadership have emerged in Heather McPherson and Avi Lewis, according to recent reporting. But the…