Shows / The Numbers
The Numbers
Éric Grenier and Philippe J. Fournier provide their unique perspective and analysis on federal and provincial politics across Canada. Become a Patron for full access to exclusive content!
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Episodes
- The Numbers
Are Carney's Liberals losing steam?
Is Mark Carney’s honeymoon in danger of coming to an end? A new poll from Abacus Data suggests the Liberals might have lost some steam for the first time since…
- The Numbers
Pierre Poilievre passes his byelection test
Pierre Poilievre easily won the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection on Monday, thereby securing his return to the House of Commons. His closest challenger…
- The Numbers
The Battle for Battle River–Crowfoot
With less than a week to go before the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection, how do we assess Pierre Poilievre’s chances to not only win but to put up a score that…
- The Numbers
Poilievre vs. 200+ candidates
For the second time in as many elections, Pierre Poilievre will have to contend with an enormous number of opponents. After the Longest Ballot Committee…
- The Numbers
Carney, Trump and TACOs
As Donald Trump rachets up the pressure on Mark Carney, a majority of Canadians are still approving of the job the prime minister is doing. And one of the…
- The Numbers
Who can save the NDP?
After the New Democrats suffered a stinging rebuke in the last federal election, there are many questions surrounding where the party goes from here — and who…
- The Numbers
Trouble or relief for Danielle Smith?
The Alberta New Democrats held their two seats in Edmonton and the United Conservatives won their seat in the rural south of the province. Naheed Nenshi now…
- The Numbers
Should the Conservatives be worried?
The post-election polling hasn’t been kind to Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives. Is it just a blip or something the Conservatives should start worrying…
- The Numbers
Carney's honeymoon continues
Mark Carney has been prime minister for three months and his honeymoon appears to be holding as new polls show his own personal numbers continue to sparkle —…
- The Numbers
Doug Ford, Canada's premier?
A new poll suggests that not only is Ontario’s Doug Ford the most well-known provincial premier in the country, he is also the most popular in the country as a…
- The Numbers
Does Canada want to chuck Charles or keep the King?
King Charles III kicked off a new parliamentary session on Tuesday by reading the government’s speech from the throne, the first time the monarch has done so…
- The Numbers
Carney's cabinet, Poilievre's byelection
Prime Minister Mark Carney named his new cabinet last week. Do his choices suggest some electoral considerations came into play on who did and didn’t made the…
- The Numbers
Wexit, Alberta-ta, Saskatchewants-out?
With referendums on separation a real possibility in the not-so-distant future, is there a chance that Alberta and/or Saskatchewan could vote to leave the…
- The Numbers
How long will this Parliament last?
Mark Carney’s Liberals secured a big minority government in last week’s election, but not the majority they were hoping for. Is 169 seats, three short of the…
- The Numbers
Post-mortem on an unprecedented election
It was a remarkable end to an unprecedented few months in Canadian politics. Mark Carney’s Liberals came up just short of a majority with 169 seats, while the…
- The Numbers
Who's going to win the election?
Mark Carney’s Liberals still hold a lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in our projections with only days to go before this campaign is all over. Will…
- The Numbers
How big of a polling cushion do the Liberals have?
We’re in the final week of this federal election campaign and the polls are still showing that Mark Carney’s Liberals remain the heavy favourites against…
- The Numbers
Will the French debate change a tightening race?
The polls suggest the race could be getting closer between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But the Liberals are still way ahead in…
- The Numbers
Keep calm and trust the averages
After a period of broad consensus, there’s been a few divergences in the polls. Are we seeing real movement between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre…
- The Numbers
Believe the polls
At Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative rally in Brampton on Wednesday, some supporters wore sweaters and held banners asking a simple question: “do you believe the…
- The Numbers
Mind the polling gap
Do we have a polling controversy on our hands? Maybe! Over the last few days, we’ve seen a few polls published that portray some starkly different public…
- The Numbers
Do the polls make sense?
While the consensus in the polls pretty clearly points to an advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, what should we make of…
- The Numbers
Liberals enter uncharted territory
It’s clear enough that Mark Carney’s Liberals would be the favourites to win this election if it were held today. But as support for the party in parts of the…
- The Numbers
As NDP collapses, Carney hits new highs
Early campaign polls show that the New Democrats under Jagmeet Singh are in freefall, propelling Mark Carney’s Liberals to new highs in support. Pierre…
- The Numbers
The Liberal advantage is real
The writ has dropped and the campaign buses are rolling. It also means the pollsters are polling — and, as hard as their numbers are to believe after what has…
- The Numbers
The Liberals are...the favourites?
A flurry of polls conducted just ahead of Sunday’s expected writ drop show the Liberals in the lead — and potentially in majority territory. Have the Liberals…
- The Numbers
Are you ready for an election?
Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership race in emphatic fashion on Sunday and an election call seems only days away. This week on The Numbers, we dissect the…
- The Numbers
Has the Liberal surge peaked already?
A series of polls published last week put the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck. This week, the numbers are putting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives…
- The Numbers
About last night in Ontario...
Doug Ford gambled when he called an early election, but it paid off in spades last night as his Progressive Conservatives won their third consecutive majority…
- The Numbers
The polls have gone crazy
It’s been a whirlwind few weeks in the polls as the Liberals have closed the gap on the Conservatives. At first, the Liberals were merely on track for a…
- The Numbers
The NDP is in deep trouble
As the Liberals close the gap on Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats are in danger of being completely eclipsed. Polls even suggest…
- The Numbers
Is it a whole new race?
The Liberals have made significant gains in a number of recent polls, closing the gap with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, in some case, to single-digits…
- The Numbers
Something's happening in the polls
The trend is getting irrefutable — the Liberals have reversed their slide since Justin Trudeau’s resignation. But just how competitive is the race really…
- The Numbers
Are the Liberals up a lot, a bit, or not at all?
One thing seems clear these days: the polls aren’t very clear these days. While there appears to be some indication of a Liberal uptick since Justin Trudeau’s…
- The Numbers
Will Ontario give Doug Ford a new mandate?
Citing the need for a new, stronger mandate to take on Donald Trump’s tariffs, Doug Ford looks poised to call an Ontario election more than a year ahead of…
- The Numbers
Who's in, who's out, and who has a chance?
This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the winnowing field of Liberal leadership contestants. We also discuss some new polling numbers that suggest the…
- The Numbers
Now that Trudeau's out, who'll replace him?
This week on The Numbers, we discuss the impact of Justin Trudeau’s resignation as prime minister and Liberal leader, as well as the early moves in the contest…
- The Numbers
Predicting politics in 2025
It’s that time of year again! Time for us to match wits as we try to predict the political year to come. How many seats will the Conservatives win in the next…
- The Numbers
Stunned, floored and flabbergasted
It’s hard to find the right adjectives to describe what happened with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government this week following the resignation of former…
- The Numbers
Liberals end year at their lowest in the polls
This week on The Numbers, we break down the latest federal polling that continues to look rough for Justin Trudeau. Next week’s byelection in the B.C. riding…
- The Numbers
Polls go from bad to sad for the Liberals
Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We…
- The Numbers
A shock poll and a PC wave
A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a…
- The Numbers
Liberals, NDP tied in new poll — again
A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn’t the first time…
- The Numbers
Yet another tough byelection test for Trudeau
The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals…
- The Numbers
Did the U.S. polls miss the mark?
Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the…
- The Numbers
Close race and a polling miss in Saskatchewan
The Sask. Party held on in Saskatchewan in what turned out to be a close election, but the polls nevertheless missed the mark by a wide margin. We break down…
- The Numbers
What just happened?
This week on The Numbers, we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C…
- The Numbers
Days of Decision in BC, NB — and for Justin Trudeau
Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the…
- The Numbers
Are the Liberals now in third place?
This week on The Numbers, we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a…
- The Numbers
After another defeat, where do the Liberals go from here?
This week on The Numbers, we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals?…
- The Numbers
Jagmeet Singh rips up the deal — now what?
This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the…
- The Numbers
Summer is ending, polling season begins
It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta…
- The Numbers
Byelection Draft Day!
What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss…
- The Numbers
Trudeau's next byelection test
A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe…
- The Numbers
Don't you know who I am?
On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top…
- The Numbers
Summer mailbag!
As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer your questions, including: Is it better to have an…
- The Numbers
A turning point in Toronto–St. Paul's
On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the…
- The Numbers
Don't call it a comeback yet, Liberals
On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months…
- The Numbers
Snap elections, byelections and Trudeau's leadership
This week, we break down the latest federal polls and discuss whether or not they show a tightening of the race. We then delve into the Baie Verte-Green Bay…
- The Numbers
Strong, stable, national Conservative 20-point lead
This week, we discuss another poll that shows a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, as well as some new numbers on how various religious communities are…