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OCR Call: Why A 0.25 Cut Matters Now · That Home Loan Hub

• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Hello and welcome back to that Homelon Hub.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna talk about our favorite topic this year.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: The most popular topic that's been trending on our podcast is you've guessed it right, OCR.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: C R.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: OCR.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: Trying to time it so we do it together.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, sorry.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: OCR.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: Kunch, what do you think?
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: 26th of November is coming.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, and it's come around real fast.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like we've just only just done a podcast.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: I know the whole year we've been doing podcasts about OCR, and every single time we've been bang on.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: We've been bang on the money.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: So what do you think this time?
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: Point to five?
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: I think official cash rate will cut again.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: Just one last time this year.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: Just this this year.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: Because it's the last one for the year as well.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: Point to five.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think is driving for another drop?
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it's just come out that um employment, unemployment, sorry, levels high, you know, 5.2% at the moment.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that will drive it.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: We're still waiting on the inflation, the final report on that as well.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: So that still hasn't come out.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: So although I still think it will still be a 0.25 cut.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and this is where it gets tricky, right?
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: Because the government is trying to help the economy, to stimulate the economy, to get it going.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: And by dropping the OCR, they're hoping that more businesses will have money in their pockets to keep going, to hire people.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: But I think a lot of those unemployment rates are really coming from the government.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, how many people have lost their jobs this year?
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, the government sector, the construction sector, our hospitality sector have all been affected.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: They've been affected.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: And it's people are really struggling.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: Like Wellington streets are very sad.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: So many shops are closing down, so much homelessness.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I've never seen this in New Zealand.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: And I've been here what over 20 years, and you've been here a while.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think it's been this bad.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: No, it's actually quite sad to see.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, I think unemployment will drive that.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, inflation went up a wee bit, but it's still kind of well, inflation went up because of you know, the power and like rates and insurance.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_01: So those factors accounted, which I don't think it should be.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: Because those are like mandatory things we have to pay for.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: And it goes up automatically.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: But the shopping basket, I mean the butter, the the big debate of the year, I think, has been.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_01: I stop baking.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: Wow.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: Because I I can't afford to bake anymore, so don't ask me to bake for you.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: I know what to give for Christmas.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: Butter.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: Butter and cheese.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: Blocks of butter and cheese.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the sad reality.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: We live in a dairy-driven country.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: And we can't afford butter.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: No, we can't, but our butter's cheaper elsewhere.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, it's like Italians that can't afford wine, for instance.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I don't know.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: But it's it's gonna be an interesting one to watch because obviously we want the OCR to go down, we want the rates to go down.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: But the same spectrum I have people that are elderly and they have term deposits and they have savings accounts, and as usual, they'll be the ones missing out because the interest rates drop, and that's their retirement plans to leave off that money.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: So this is where they have to start thinking what they should be doing with their money.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_01: So think of other options other than a savings account.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: We're not investment advisors, so we can't give you any advice on that side of things, but there are other means to make your money work harder for you.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: So with the OCR dropping this year, and then shortly after, we've got a new general reserve bank governor.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: Governor.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: Governor.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: General.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_01: No governor, yes, yeah, governor starting in.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, coming, signing in next year, isn't she?
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, first of December, I think she'll start.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, okay, soon.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: I think they decided to like get all the OCRs out of the way.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: Then and then she'll start, and it'll be a really interesting space to watch because we don't know what's her stance yet, you know, on everything that's going on.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: But I know from where she's coming from, that country's doing really well.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm really hoping that she will put some sense into New Zealand.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I really hope we see a little bit of a turn in terms of our economy and things like that.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: Because it is hard out there, hard to see as well.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: And we see that a lot, like with people even that have mortgages, and even if the interest rates are going down, they're still struggling.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, absolutely.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: So absolutely, even with what we're at four and a half at the moment, it's still the struggle because the extras that you are getting in your pocket are going to your utilities.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: Utilities, yeah.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: The power, the insurance, and the fuel.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_01: Food.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I was in Fiji and I was really surprised how expensive the life is there.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I've been told that.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: I was blown away.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: The prices were pretty much like New Zealand prices.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: Like if you're shopping in a supermarket or putting petrol in.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Very much like New Zealand prices.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: So I was looking at them going, what do you guys do for a living and how much are you earning here?
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: And again, the reality is a lot of people migrate out of Fiji.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: They work in countries like Australia, New Zealand, and then they send money home to help out.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Because a lot of people I met, they're all, you know, like, oh, my daughter's in Auckland, my son is in Nelson.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's quite interesting that you bring that topic up in terms of they migrate out.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_01: So we've had lots of you know, Kiwis leaving the country as well lately, but our unemployment's still high.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: Interesting, yeah.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Very interesting.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe we'll have to do a whole episode on unemployment in New Zealand.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: That's what it does.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: Guys, give us your thoughts.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think the rates will do?
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: And what do you think we will see?
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: We already have a provider that's offering 3.99 for one year or two years, which is phenomenal.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: And I called it.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: I said we will see 3.99 before the end of the year from main banks.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: And now I'm waiting for the main banks.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'm waiting for the main banks.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: I think we will see something.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see something.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, after November.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: After November.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, 20 stuff.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: We are in November.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: After the 26th.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: After the 26th of November.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: So 20 more days, watch that space.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: I'm betting you a block of butter.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: If we hit 3.99.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: I'll I'll better get my bacon then if I get a block of butter.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds good.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: Awesome.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you guys so much.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: Stay tuned.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: Bye.