Latest / Selling on Giants: The eCommerce Marketplace Podcast / Amazon Takes Control of Multipacks, Google Changes Checkout & Black Friday Starts Early
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: Retailers are forecasting more than$1 trillion in holiday sales this year, but I think there's a real risk that brands are going to confuse higher revenue with a stronger business.
- 0:12SPEAKER_00: Consumers are shopping earlier, Amazon's fulfillment fees are already climbing, TikTok is starting Black Friday weeks before Thanksgiving, and Google just introduced a shopping experience that lets customers buy from multiple retailers without visiting their individual websites.
- 0:29SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, Amazon is beginning to make merchandising decisions on behalf of sellers, including creating product multi-packs without waiting for brands to request them.
- 0:39SPEAKER_00: Individually, these changes might look like ordinary platform updates, but together, they tell us something important about where commerce is heading.
- 0:49SPEAKER_00: I'm Mr.
- 0:49SPEAKER_00: Will, and welcome back to Selling on Giants, where we break down what's changing across e-commerce and what it actually means for the people responsible for growing these businesses.
- 1:00SPEAKER_00: Let's start with the holiday outlook, because the numbers sound encouraging, but there's a little more happening underneath them.
- 1:07SPEAKER_00: The National Retail Federation expects November and December retail spending to reach$1 trillion$13 billion, representing growth of 4.2% compared with last year.
- 1:20SPEAKER_00: That's a significant amount of money moving through the retail economy, especially considering the pressure consumers are facing from inflation, higher transportation costs, and household expenses.
- 1:31SPEAKER_00: But here's what I think sellers need to understand.
- 1:34SPEAKER_00: Growing retail spending doesn't necessarily mean consumers are buying substantially more products.
- 1:41SPEAKER_00: Part of that growth reflects higher prices, and consumers are becoming increasingly selective about where they spend their money.
- 1:48SPEAKER_00: We've already seen this pattern with prime big deal days, where shoppers responded to October promotions rather than waiting for traditional holiday events.
- 1:58SPEAKER_00: And now, TikTok is taking that behavior a step further by launching its Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping campaign on November 11th, with the event continuing through November 30th.
- 2:10SPEAKER_00: Think about what that means for a moment.
- 2:12SPEAKER_00: Black Friday is no longer a weekend, or even a week.
- 2:16SPEAKER_00: It's becoming a series of overlapping promotional events spread across multiple months, with each platform trying to capture demand before competitors get the opportunity.
- 2:27SPEAKER_00: TikTok is also adding a three-day delivery badge for eligible products and expanding access to box-free, label-free returns through approximately 10,000 happy returns locations.
- 2:39SPEAKER_00: These might sound like ordinary fulfillment improvements, but they're important because TikTok is addressing some of the friction that traditionally makes consumers more comfortable purchasing through Amazon or Walmart.
- 2:52SPEAKER_00: And while the shopping experience is getting easier, the seller's job isn't necessarily getting simpler.
- 2:58SPEAKER_00: TikTok still depends heavily on discovery, creator content, and the ability to generate interest before somebody decides to purchase.
- 3:07SPEAKER_00: You can't simply upload inventory, enroll in a promotion, and expect the same behavior you might see from customers searching for a specific product on Amazon.
- 3:17SPEAKER_00: The practical implication is that brands need to think about their promotional calendar as one connected operating plan.
- 3:24SPEAKER_00: If you're running aggressive TikTok promotions in early November, you need to understand how those discounts affect your Amazon pricing, your available inventory, and the advertising budgets you've allocated for the rest of the season.
- 3:38SPEAKER_00: Because the fastest way to turn a successful holiday promotion into an operational problem is to create demand your business isn't prepared to fulfill.
- 3:47SPEAKER_00: And that brings us back to Amazon, where some very important decisions need to be made right now.
- 3:53SPEAKER_00: Amazon's deadline for submitting Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals is October 20th.
- 3:59SPEAKER_00: That's tomorrow.
- 4:00SPEAKER_00: So if you're listening as this episode comes out, your team should already be validating submissions, checking deal eligibility, and making sure your listings aren't suppressed or at risk.
- 4:11SPEAKER_00: But the deadline is only part of the story, because Amazon's holiday peak fulfillment fees officially went into effect on October 15th and remain active through January 14th.
- 4:22SPEAKER_00: Amazon says the seasonal increase averages approximately 32 cents per unit, and the existing 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge applies on top of those fulfillment fees.
- 4:35SPEAKER_00: Here's where I think a lot of brands get themselves into trouble.
- 4:38SPEAKER_00: They develop a promotional strategy based on historical advertising performance and normal fulfillment costs.
- 4:45SPEAKER_00: Then evaluate the campaign based on revenue and A costs without updating the actual contribution margin.
- 4:53SPEAKER_00: The advertising can look perfectly healthy while the economics underneath the campaign have deteriorated.
- 4:59SPEAKER_00: Imagine you're selling a product with a relatively tight margin and you've already committed to a 15 or 20% promotional discount.
- 5:08SPEAKER_00: Add higher fulfillment fees, promotional fees, and potentially more expensive advertising during peak competition, and you may discover that the incremental sales aren't generating much incremental profit.
- 5:20SPEAKER_00: This is why I don't think a strong return on ad spend is enough to call a campaign successful.
- 5:26SPEAKER_00: If you're managing the business responsibly, you need to understand what remains after the marketplace takes its share and the product gets delivered.
- 5:35SPEAKER_00: And these cost pressures aren't limited to Amazon.
- 5:38SPEAKER_00: Walmart just expanded its approved carrier network, adding eight parcel carriers for seller-fulfilled orders, including Uni Uni, SpeedX, and DoorDash.
- 5:48SPEAKER_00: I actually like this move because it gives brands additional transportation options at a time when parcel costs are increasing.
- 5:56SPEAKER_00: But cheaper shipping isn't automatically better shipping, especially when Walmart still expects sellers to maintain valid tracking and reliable delivery performance.
- 6:06SPEAKER_00: If a carrier saves you money but introduces more late deliveries, damaged shipments, or customer complaints, those savings can disappear pretty quickly.
- 6:16SPEAKER_00: The objective is to improve fulfillment economics without weakening the experience customers are paying for.
- 6:23SPEAKER_00: And that theme of managing costs while protecting the customer experience connects directly to another Amazon change that I think deserves more attention than it's getting.
- 6:33SPEAKER_00: Amazon is automatically creating distribution center case pack listings for selected brand-owned FBA products that demonstrate strong demand for multiple units.
- 6:43SPEAKER_00: These listings are essentially multi-packs built from existing inventory.
- 6:48SPEAKER_00: Amazon creates the product listing, assigns a new identifier, and makes the multi-pack available alongside the original single unit product.
- 6:57SPEAKER_00: The initial listings are scheduled to be created by October 28th, with customers able to begin purchasing them on November 11th.
- 7:06SPEAKER_00: Now, on the surface, I understand why Amazon wants to do this.
- 7:10SPEAKER_00: Multipacks can increase units per order, give customers more purchasing options, and potentially improve the efficiency of fulfilling larger purchases.
- 7:19SPEAKER_00: But I have a problem with the assumption that Amazon automatically knows how a brand should merchandise its products.
- 7:26SPEAKER_00: Consider a product where the single unit sells for$20.
- 7:30SPEAKER_00: Amazon's default multi-pack pricing is based on multiplying that single unit price by the number of units in the pack.
- 7:38SPEAKER_00: That means a three-pack could appear at$60 without offering the customer any savings.
- 7:44SPEAKER_00: Maybe that pricing makes sense.
- 7:46SPEAKER_00: Maybe it doesn't.
- 7:48SPEAKER_00: But it's a decision the brand should make based on customer behavior, competitive positioning, and contribution margin, rather than allowing an automated system to establish the offer.
- 7:59SPEAKER_00: There are also implications for imagery, pack quantities, and the relationship between the multi-pack and the original listing.
- 8:07SPEAKER_00: Amazon is allowing sellers to review and edit these listings, but brands need to actually look at what the system creates.
- 8:14SPEAKER_00: And here's something worth knowing.
- 8:16SPEAKER_00: During this pilot, if you delete one of these case pack listings, Amazon says you cannot reactivate it later.
- 8:23SPEAKER_00: So don't have somebody blindly deleting new SKUs without understanding what they're looking at.
- 8:29SPEAKER_00: For affected sellers, I'd be checking Manage All Inventory for the new multi-pack identifiers, reviewing how each offer is positioned, and deciding whether it belongs in the assortment.
- 8:40SPEAKER_00: This is part of a much broader shift we're seeing across marketplaces.
- 8:45SPEAKER_00: The platforms are moving from giving brands tools to make decisions toward making more of those decisions automatically.
- 8:52SPEAKER_00: And that makes operational oversight more important, not less.
- 8:56SPEAKER_00: It's also one of the reasons we spend so much time at Bellivix helping brands connect strategy with execution.
- 9:03SPEAKER_00: We've helped brands sell over$500 million on Amazon.
- 9:08SPEAKER_00: And as a verified ad partner, we see how quickly marketplace complexity can overwhelm teams that don't have clear priorities or establish processes.
- 9:17SPEAKER_00: Our focus is hands-on marketplace management that turns all of these moving parts into practical operating plans.
- 9:25SPEAKER_00: The goal isn't to chase every new feature Amazon introduces, it's to understand which opportunities actually improve the business and execute against those consistently.
- 9:35SPEAKER_00: You can learn more at Bellovics.com.
- 9:38SPEAKER_00: Now, while Amazon is becoming more involved in how products are merchandised, Google is moving further into something potentially even more disruptive.
- 9:48SPEAKER_00: Google just launched Universal Cart in the United States, bringing a unified shopping experience into Google Search and Gemini.
- 9:56SPEAKER_00: The concept is straightforward.
- 9:58SPEAKER_00: Instead of visiting several different retailers, adding products to different shopping carts, and managing separate checkouts, customers can organize products from multiple merchants inside one Google shopping experience.
- 10:11SPEAKER_00: Google can also track price changes, notify shoppers when products return to stock, identify promotional codes, and help customers choose payment methods based on available benefits.
- 10:23SPEAKER_00: Participating retailers include Walmart, Target, Nike, Sephora, and Shopify merchants, with customers able to complete eligible purchases using Google Pay or continue to the retailers' checkout.
- 10:36SPEAKER_00: The retailers still handle the transactions and customer support, but Google is positioning itself much closer to the purchasing decision.
- 10:44SPEAKER_00: And I think that's the part marketplace sellers should pay attention to.
- 10:48SPEAKER_00: For years, brands have optimized around the idea that a customer enters a marketplace, searches for a product, compares the options, and eventually makes a purchase.
- 10:59SPEAKER_00: But what happens when that shopping journey begins somewhere else entirely?
- 11:03SPEAKER_00: What happens when the customer tells Gemini what they're looking for, compares several retailers inside the same interface, receives an alert when the price drops, and completes the purchase without ever browsing the actual storefront?
- 11:17SPEAKER_00: The competitive advantage shifts toward whichever products are easiest for these systems to understand, compare, and confidently recommend.
- 11:25SPEAKER_00: This is where product feeds, accurate attributes, availability, and pricing consistency become much more important than ordinary catalog maintenance.
- 11:35SPEAKER_00: And here's an opinion that I think some brands need to hear.
- 11:38SPEAKER_00: If your product data is inconsistent across Amazon, Walmart, Shopify, and Google, you don't have an artificial intelligence optimization problem.
- 11:48SPEAKER_00: You have a basic commerce operations problem.
- 11:51SPEAKER_00: Artificial intelligence isn't going to magically fix incomplete attributes, confusing product variations, or inaccurate inventory availability.
- 12:01SPEAKER_00: In fact, those issues may become more expensive as shopping interfaces rely increasingly on structured product information to make recommendations.
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: And I wouldn't rush to spend a fortune on a new AI visibility platform before solving those fundamentals.
- 12:18SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of excitement around generative search optimization right now, and some of it is justified, but brands should be very careful about purchasing a sophisticated solution to compensate for poor execution.
- 12:31SPEAKER_00: The products still need to be competitive, the offer still needs to make sense, and the information needs to be accurate.
- 12:39SPEAKER_00: What's changing is who controls the shopping interface.
- 12:43SPEAKER_00: Amazon wants to make more merchandising decisions.
- 12:46SPEAKER_00: TikTok wants to turn discovery into immediate purchases.
- 12:50SPEAKER_00: Google wants to organize shopping across retailers.
- 12:54SPEAKER_00: And Walmart continues expanding the infrastructure and shipping options that make its marketplace easier to operate.
- 13:01SPEAKER_00: Every platform is trying to remove friction for the consumer, but that doesn't necessarily remove complexity for the brand.
- 13:09SPEAKER_00: In many cases, it actually increases the level of discipline required behind the scenes.
- 13:14SPEAKER_00: So as we move deeper into the fourth quarter, I think brands need to be especially careful about confusing activity with progress.
- 13:23SPEAKER_00: Launching another promotion isn't necessarily progress.
- 13:27SPEAKER_00: Creating more product listings isn't necessarily progress.
- 13:31SPEAKER_00: Expanding into another sales channel isn't necessarily progress.
- 13:35SPEAKER_00: Progress happens when those decisions generate profitable demand, improve the customer experience, or create a stronger competitive position for the business.
- 13:45SPEAKER_00: And if your team cannot explain how a particular initiative accomplishes one of those objectives, it's worth questioning why you're doing it in the first place.
- 13:54SPEAKER_00: The brands that come out of this holiday season in the strongest position won't necessarily be the ones celebrating the largest revenue increases.
- 14:02SPEAKER_00: They'll be the ones that understand their numbers, control their inventory, protect their margins, and make decisions quickly enough to keep up with the platforms.
- 14:12SPEAKER_00: That's what I've got for you this week.
- 14:14SPEAKER_00: If you're enjoying selling on Giants, make sure you're subscribed and consider leaving us a rating or review.
- 14:20SPEAKER_00: It helps other marketplace operators find the show, and I appreciate everyone who takes a few moments to support us.
- 14:27SPEAKER_00: I'm Mr.
- 14:28SPEAKER_00: Will, and this is Selling on Giants.
- 14:31SPEAKER_00: Thanks for spending part of your week with me.
- 14:33SPEAKER_00: Stay focused on the fundamentals, keep your teams moving, and let's finish the fourth quarter strong.
- 14:39SPEAKER_00: I'll catch you next week.