Shows / Macro Bytes
Episodes
- Macro Bytes
Vive la Différence: how do the UK and French bond market challenges compare?
The UK just held its budget, and France is trying to pass one. Both economies have both been in the bond market's sights this year. Their deficits are of a…
- Macro Bytes
Can the next Brazilian president satisfy investors?
With less than one week to go until the second round of the Brazilian presidential election, Lizzy Galbraith is joined by Tettey Addy to discuss the…
- Macro Bytes
What will divided US government mean for policymaking, the economy, and markets?
President Trump may not be on the ballot, but the 2026 US midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on his presidency. Paul Diggle and Lizzy Galbraith unpack…
- Macro Bytes
How far will central bank interest rate hikes go?
The global monetary policy cycle has turned back to hiking, following two years of (nearly) synchronised rate cuts. In this episode of Macro Bytes, Chief…
- Macro Bytes
The AI data centre backlash: can the boom survive contact with local politics?
AI may be digital, but its success depends on a very physical reality: data centre construction. As investment in AI infrastructure surges, local opposition is…
- Macro Bytes
When do higher bond yields become a problem for the economy and stocks?
Long-term bond yields have been hitting multi-decade highs. Lizzy Galbraith and Paul Diggle discuss the drivers of this increase in government borrowing costs…
- Macro Bytes
What would an Andy Burnham premiership mean for the UK economy and markets?
Andy Burnham is set to become Britain’s Prime Minister on 20 July and promises a new style of governance - “Manchesterism”. Luke and Lizzy discuss what…
- Macro Bytes
Are recessions predictable? – with Tyler Goodspeed
Many economists and investors try to predict the business cycle in order to time their investments into financial markets. In this episode, Paul and Luke speak…
- Macro Bytes
Where do interest rates go if growth weakens but inflation increases?
Most central banks started the year preparing to cut interest rates further. Then geopolitics intervened. In this episode Paul and Luke unpack how the…
- Macro Bytes
Space, the final frontier for the economy? - with Hannah Lee, JP Morgan
Near earth orbit is increasingly a site of economic activity, and a domain of great power competition. Paul and Luke are joined by Hannah Lee, Thematic…
- Macro Bytes
If UK PM Starmer goes, what changes, what doesn’t, and what markets will price?
The UK local and devolved regional elections are shaping up to be rough for the incumbent Labour party. Speculation about political leadership change is likely…
- Macro Bytes
Who is winning the US-China AI race?
The release of China’s Deepseek R1 model last year, which rivalled many US large language models but was trained at a fraction of the cost, seemed to kick-off…
- Macro Bytes
How are investors responding to the Iran conflict? – with Victoria Scholar from interactive investor
The Iran war is now in its 5th week, longer than many in the market seem to have been expecting, and it continues to be a source of significant asset price…
- Macro Bytes
Conflict in Iran: how long will it last, and what will be the economic impact?
The war in Iran and the wider Middle East has dealt a significant blow to asset prices. Paul, Luke and Lizzy look at the US and Israel’s war aims and examine…
- Macro Bytes
Can Europe innovate at war(p) speed? - with the NATO Innovation Fund
The war in Ukraine is now four years old, and the nature of modern warfighting - and Europe’s defence needs - has shifted dramatically as a result. Lizzy and…
- Macro Bytes
Does politics matter for markets? - with Jens Larsen of Eurasia Group
2026 has started with a flurry of political shocks. Luke and Lizzy talk to Jens Larsen, Practice Head of Geoeconomics at Eurasia Group, about the structurally…
- Macro Bytes
Will the trade war become a capital war?
With President Trump threatening fresh tariffs on various economies, trade wars are back in focus. Moreover, the risk of the trade war spreading to a capital…
- Macro Bytes
What will the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ mean for global macro and markets?
The recent US intervention in Venezuela is a vivid demonstration of the new so-called ‘Donroe Doctrine’ asserting complete US supremacy in the western…
- Macro Bytes
What does 2026 hold for macro and markets?
The coming year is going to see more economic and geopolitical volatility for investors to navigate. Paul asks members of the Aberdeen Investments research…
- Macro Bytes
UK Budget: Macro Bytes immediate reaction episode
The much-anticipated UK budget has finally been announced. Paul and Luke are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the economic and market implications of…
- Macro Bytes
How can investors navigate a fracturing economic order? - with Neil Shearing
The world isn’t deglobalising, it’s fracturing – splitting into US and China blocs, along manufacturing, technological, and financial lines. Paul speaks to…
- Macro Bytes
How are the US and China weaponising the global economy? - with Edward Fishman
US export controls on high-end semiconductor chips, and Chinese control over rare earth supply, are just the most recent examples of major economies…
- Macro Bytes
Can France find a way out of its political and fiscal problems?
France has been cycling through Prime Ministers, as the government struggles to pass a budget through a divided parliament. Paul and Luke talk to Lizzy…
- Macro Bytes
Can AI simulate the Fed? - with Tara Sinclair
With the US Federal Reserve under intense political pressure and the labour market at an inflection point, understanding how the FOMC might respond to shocks…
- Macro Bytes
How will Rachel Reeves plug the UK's fiscal blackhole?
The UK Budget is about two months away. The Chancellor is once again facing the prospect of her fiscal rules being breached, and the likely need to tighten…
- Macro Bytes
Should the market fear fiscal dominance?
The independence of the Federal Reserve is under sustained attack from the Trump administration. But despite the totemic significance of the Fed to the global…
- Macro Bytes
How could stablecoins reshape the global financial system?
Stablecoins are digital assets often tied to the value of a fiat currency, such as the dollar. They have the potential to reshape the financial and economic…
- Macro Bytes
Is the Fed about to be 'Trumpified'?
US macro hasn’t taken the summer off. Between tariff threats and trade deals, slowing growth and massive jobs data revisions, and Trump firing the head of the…
- Macro Bytes
How much infrastructure does the world need?
Infrastructure is one of the foundations on which economies are built. It’s essential for meeting the needs of growing and ageing populations, it has a role to…
- Macro Bytes
Is the Big Beautiful Bill a step too far for bond markets?
The Trump administration is pursuing a significant fiscal expansion with its “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act. But with long-term bond yields rising, and Section…
- Macro Bytes
Has Javier Milei’s shock therapy worked for Argentina?
The Argentinian economy has a history going back decades of chronically low growth, high inflation, and successive crises. However, President Javier Milei’s…
- Macro Bytes
So was the trade war all just a fever dream?
The US and China have significantly, albeit temporarily, reduced tariff rates. And the US has started to make tariff deals with other countries too, beginning…
- Macro Bytes
The end of US exceptionalism?
The US has long been economically “exceptional”, with its high growth rate, dominant technology companies, and as the provider of the global safe asset and…
- Macro Bytes
How high could tariffs go?
President Trump has announced an enormous increase in US tariffs on the rest of the world. But is this a negotiating tactic that will see tariffs fall over…
- Macro Bytes
UK fiscal policy back to black, for now
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced spending cuts to restore headroom against the government’s fiscal rules. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined…
- Macro Bytes
Is the US economy heading for a Trumpcession?
US consumer and business sentiment has fallen significantly recently in response to extremely elevated policy uncertainty with some indicators pointing to…
- Macro Bytes
Can Friedrich Merz solve Germany’s problems?
The CDU-CSU has emerged as the largest party from the German federal elections, and Friedrich Merz will almost certainly become the next Chancellor at the head…
- Macro Bytes
Five years on, is Brexit finally paying off?
Much like the effects of the French revolution, it may be too early to tell the long-term economic impacts of Brexit. UK growth and investment have almost…
- Macro Bytes
Tariff man strikes back, or the phantom trade war?
Investors can be forgiven for having tariff whiplash, after the threat and then temporary reprieve of 25% US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and the…
- Macro Bytes
Could Trump devalue the dollar with a “Mar-a-Lago Accord”?
The US dollar is rising as investors price in Trump’s policy platform of tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation. But key members of the new US administration want…
- Macro Bytes
DOGE: more bark than bite?
Elon Musk is set to join the Trump administration as head of the Department of Government Efficiency. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith about the role and…
- Macro Bytes
What does 2025 hold for macro and markets?
The coming year is going to see more economic and geopolitical volatility for investors to navigate. Paul asks members of the abrdn economic research team to…
- Macro Bytes
Will the bond vigilantes return?
We need to talk about debt. Global government debt is approaching 100% of global GDP. And the incoming Trump administration may be about to increase the large…
- Macro Bytes
What does Trump mean for the economy?
A Trump presidency will have important implications for tax and spending, immigration, trade policy, and regulation. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are…
- Macro Bytes
A budget for growth, or for higher gilt yields?
Labour’s first budget was a big one – new fiscal rules, large tax and spend increases, and a big rise in investment. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are…
- Macro Bytes
Has China fired its stimulus bazooka?
After months of piecemeal economic policy support, Chinese stimulus has stepped up significantly and equity markets have surged higher. Paul Diggle and Luke…
- Macro Bytes
Retail investors are upbeat despite the risks - with Carl Hazeley
Markets are facing an array of potential risks - from the imminent US election, narrow leadership in equity markets, and spiking tensions in the Middle East…
- Macro Bytes
How to fund our future infrastructure needs - with Bridget Rosewell
Economies are built on infrastructure. But stretched public finances mean the state is increasingly looking to the private sector to help fund infrastructure…
- Macro Bytes
How painful will the UK Budget be?
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her first Budget on 30 October. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew ask whether Labour have been talking the UK economy…
- Macro Bytes
Is the Fed behind the curve? Is the Bank of Japan dangerously ahead of the curve?
A weak US jobs report reignited concerns about a US recession, and a surprisingly large Bank of Japan rate hike causes a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade…
- Macro Bytes
How do macro themes drive equity markets?
We frequently discuss globalisation, political volatility, geo-political competition, and technological change on this podcast. But how can investors play…
- Macro Bytes
Is the UK now an island of political stability?
The UK general election delivered a large Labour majority, while the French second round vote has resulted in a fragmented parliament and in the US, President…
- Macro Bytes
Is France now a member of the Euro periphery?
France is heading to the polls in snap election, and markets are concerned about a potential large fiscal expansion. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and…
- Macro Bytes
Why are Chinese electric vehicles disrupting the global economy?
China has become a global EV superpower in very short order, with major macroeconomic repercussions. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith…
- Macro Bytes
What would a Labour government mean for the UK economy?
The snap UK general election on July 4th is very likely to result in a Labour government. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith about what…
- Macro Bytes
America’s dollar, the world’s problem?
The US dollar is different to every other currency. The dollar is the global reserve asset, and its dominant status means dollar strength has important global…
- Macro Bytes
Is globalisation going into reverse, or just changing?
The traditional trade engine of globalisation has stalled or is even heading into reverse. But the globalisation of information, capital and people is still…
- Macro Bytes
How should investors navigate economic and political uncertainty?
The global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is filled with risks around inflation, interest rates, and instability in the Middle East. Paul Diggle…
- Macro Bytes
Will the Bank of Japan hike interest rates again before the Federal Reserve cuts?
The Bank of Japan has taken the historic step of ending negative interest rates and may hike further. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve seems to be approaching…
- Macro Bytes
Are we in a more volatile world for inflation?
The ‘great inflation’ saw not only price growth, but also inflation volatility, spike higher. And even as inflation itself has fallen back more recently…