Latest / Carson's Corner: Entrepreneurship & Investing / Build, Don’t Buy: The Multifamily Development Playbook with Dusten Hendrickson
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_03: I think my key to success is I don't really care.
- 0:03SPEAKER_03: The Lord takes all my units away tomorrow.
- 0:05SPEAKER_03: I don't really care.
- 0:07SPEAKER_00: Today's guest is Dustin Hendrickson, a multifamily developer building across South Dakota and Minnesota, with over 1,350 units stabilized and a goal of 5,000 within five years.
- 0:17SPEAKER_03: I owned a roofing crew.
- 0:19SPEAKER_03: One my mom was trying to buy a duplex.
- 0:21SPEAKER_03: She said we could build a brand new duplex and we could do it ourselves.
- 0:25SPEAKER_03: Build it for cheaper than what it's going to cost to buy.
- 0:27SPEAKER_03: So we just learn how to develop by building our first project.
- 0:30SPEAKER_03: That's all we do.
- 0:31SPEAKER_03: And we hardly even buy anything anymore because we can build for the same price, and we'd rather have a brand new asset.
- 0:36SPEAKER_03: You don't think there's going to be a massive correction?
- 0:38SPEAKER_03: Most people that own property probably are at 50% or less LTB.
- 0:43SPEAKER_03: So why do we need to sell?
- 0:44SPEAKER_03: It's kind of like farmers and farmland.
- 0:46SPEAKER_03: Farmers will go to the grave before they're going to sell their farmland at a loss.
- 0:50SPEAKER_03: It takes a long time for values to actually come down.
- 0:53SPEAKER_03: How many units are you heading towards?
- 0:55SPEAKER_03: 1,350 that are stabilized, over 400 in develop in current construction, about a thousand in pre-development.
- 1:02SPEAKER_03: Within five years, we should be at 5,000 units.
- 1:04SPEAKER_02: You know, are you mainly doing like class A or is that class B plus?
- 1:08SPEAKER_03: We're half the price on the rent of what a typical class A would be with your gyms and pools.
- 1:12SPEAKER_03: Most people don't use those amenities.
- 1:14SPEAKER_03: You get a nice unit in a safe neighborhood.
- 1:16SPEAKER_03: Looks beautiful.
- 1:17SPEAKER_03: The sizzle doesn't really sell anymore.
- 1:19SPEAKER_03: It's all value-based.
- 1:21SPEAKER_02: If you were gonna give somebody advice that wanted to get started in developing, what would that be?
- 1:26SPEAKER_01: Well, okay, so it depends on what welcome to the Carson's Quarter.
- 1:32SPEAKER_02: Alrighty, I'm sitting here with Mr.
- 1:34SPEAKER_02: Dustin Hendrickson, multifamily developer up in South Dakota, does Minnesota and up in that region.
- 1:50SPEAKER_02: And, you know, where we've been.
- 1:51SPEAKER_02: He's I've been following Dustin for quite a long time.
- 1:55SPEAKER_02: I I said about 10 years now on LinkedIn.
- 1:59SPEAKER_02: You know, he's been developing, does good quality work as far as the assets that he's built.
- 2:04SPEAKER_02: I've always been impressed.
- 2:05SPEAKER_02: Um he's a mover and shaker in the industry and uh look forward to discussing things with him.
- 2:11SPEAKER_02: How are you doing, Dustin?
- 2:12SPEAKER_02: I'm doing good.
- 2:13SPEAKER_03: Thanks for having me on Carson's Corner.
- 2:16SPEAKER_03: Pretty cool, Dan to remember.
- 2:19SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 2:20SPEAKER_02: Um so you're always active, you know, been developing, you know, through the good times and the bad.
- 2:28SPEAKER_02: And, you know, lately there's been a lot of overdevelopment, you know, throughout the, you know, mainly the Sun Belt, but you're in a region where it hasn't been overbuilt quite as much.
- 2:39SPEAKER_02: So you're you've been straight developing all the way through this since you know, 2021, all the way through now, you've continued to develop, right?
- 2:48SPEAKER_03: Yep.
- 2:48SPEAKER_03: We've been developing the whole time.
- 2:51SPEAKER_03: We did we started developing in 2003, but it was on a smaller scale.
- 2:56SPEAKER_03: So, you know, ups and downs don't really affect you at all when you're on a real small scale.
- 3:01SPEAKER_03: Then in 2015-16, we started buying a lot more stuff.
- 3:06SPEAKER_03: And then when the interest rates went up, almost all the value and value add has been realized to be organic appreciation.
- 3:15SPEAKER_03: The value add plans were really just taking advantage of massive organic appreciation that was going on.
- 3:22SPEAKER_03: And because of those values, skyrocketing the next thing would be to just build brand new.
- 3:28SPEAKER_03: Because if old assets are worth that much, brand new ones have got to be worth even more.
- 3:32SPEAKER_03: There's a huge delta there, so everyone had the same idea at the same time.
- 3:36SPEAKER_03: Let's just all develop.
- 3:38SPEAKER_03: And so now everyone developed, and that puts a ton of downward pressure on all the existing assets, interest rates going up, and now very few people are developing, and so we'll have some sort of crisis or shortage of housing units or something.
- 3:53SPEAKER_03: Um, but we're still seeing high occupancies, it's just that the rental rates are low.
- 3:58SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 3:59SPEAKER_02: Well, it's everything came online at once, so I think there's a recalibration going on right now.
- 4:05SPEAKER_02: Um, like you said, everybody, you know, with a few investors was developing and all that's come online, but a lot of those developers have since disappeared.
- 4:15SPEAKER_02: And a lot of the product wasn't that good, too, to be honest with you.
- 4:18SPEAKER_02: But, you know, based on everything I know about you, you've built pretty quality assets, you know.
- 4:24SPEAKER_02: I mean, you're always out on site, which is, you know, a huge part of being a good developer, in my opinion.
- 4:30SPEAKER_02: It's like, you know, you're not, you're not uh, you're hands-on, let's put it that way.
- 4:36SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and it does help when you're involved from land acquisition all the way through to the asset disposition, you're involved in every part of it.
- 4:45SPEAKER_03: You're passionate about the design, you're passionate about the tenants' feedback, and you work on the same product over and over, you can continuously improve that product more and more and more, and you could provide quite a good product that provides a lot of value to tenants.
- 4:59SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 5:00SPEAKER_02: So did you uh when you were younger, I mean, like I I know you got into value add and stuff like that.
- 5:06SPEAKER_02: What made you jump like into were you around it as a kid or something like that?
- 5:10SPEAKER_02: Most people that develop were like kind of surrounded by it, or was this something you were just like, it just made financial sense.
- 5:16SPEAKER_02: Like, hey, I'm gonna just it makes way more sense just to develop my own stuff.
- 5:21SPEAKER_02: Is that how the transition happened?
- 5:22SPEAKER_03: Or yeah, that's what that's what happened.
- 5:24SPEAKER_03: I was involved in the construction.
- 5:25SPEAKER_03: I owned a roofing crew and we did gutters, roofing and gutter crew, and I had all these relationships with all the subcontractors.
- 5:33SPEAKER_03: And I've always walked through the houses.
- 5:35SPEAKER_03: I really liked the architecture of the houses.
- 5:38SPEAKER_03: And when my mom was trying to buy a duplex and it it was very expensive like it is now, the expense ratio didn't make sense.
- 5:47SPEAKER_03: So she said, we could build a brand new duplex and we could do it ourselves, put in some sweat equity and build it for cheaper than what it's gonna cost to buy, and then we use that equity as our down payment so we won't have to come up with so much cash.
- 6:01SPEAKER_03: So we just learned how to develop by building our first project.
- 6:05SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you see that a lot.
- 6:06SPEAKER_02: I I know people, it's either like they're around it as a kid or they're like kind of on the outside, either like they're electrician or roofing contractor or some sort of surrounding aspect, and they're like, you know what, I could do this.
- 6:18SPEAKER_02: And they they end up uh they're like, you know, take the bull by the horns and just go at it.
- 6:23SPEAKER_02: So yeah.
- 6:24SPEAKER_02: Um, so you you guys are m like a hundred percent focused on multifamily, right?
- 6:30SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 6:31SPEAKER_03: That's all we do.
- 6:33SPEAKER_03: And we hardly even buy anything anymore because the value doesn't make sense to us because we can build for the same price, and we'd rather have a brand new asset.
- 6:41SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 6:42SPEAKER_02: You so yeah, I see that all the time.
- 6:44SPEAKER_02: You're looking at like, especially with the prices that owners are asking right now, I think there's some distortion on like there there was a correction that was supposed to happen, and all these uh distressed recapitalizations prevented that from happening.
- 6:59SPEAKER_02: So the owners have this false belief that like an asset built in like 2005 is worth the same as a brand new asset, and they're asking like five caps and crazy stuff, you know.
- 7:11SPEAKER_02: But it's like, okay, if I'm gonna pay that, why not just build new, you know?
- 7:15SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 7:15SPEAKER_02: Um, you do you do have the re risk of lease up, but it's worth it.
- 7:19SPEAKER_02: You know, you're probably getting it for 20% off.
- 7:22SPEAKER_02: So anyway.
- 7:23SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I mean, if you look at the actual amount of investors, like syndicate syndicators that own properties, it's very small.
- 7:32SPEAKER_03: It's in the single digits percentage-wise.
- 7:35SPEAKER_03: So most people that own property don't need to sell the property.
- 7:39SPEAKER_03: So they're talking about this huge bubble and this asset price resetting.
- 7:43SPEAKER_03: But most people that own property probably are at 50% or less LTB.
- 7:48SPEAKER_03: So why do they need to sell?
- 7:50SPEAKER_03: It's kind of like farmers and farmland.
- 7:52SPEAKER_03: Farmers will will go to the grave before they're gonna sell their farmland on a loss.
- 7:56SPEAKER_03: Like it was so hard for them to get, they're just gonna figure out how to hold it.
- 8:00SPEAKER_03: And so it it's it takes a long time for values to actually come down.
- 8:05SPEAKER_02: So you're saying like a most of them aren't like the syndicators that came in, you know, those are the ones that are doing the distress recapitalizations.
- 8:12SPEAKER_02: But yeah, you know, the ones that have been sitting there forever, you know, they have really good LTVs and they're just sitting there saying, Okay, who cares?
- 8:19SPEAKER_02: I'm keeping up 20 years anyway.
- 8:21SPEAKER_02: So you know, who cares what rates are, you know?
- 8:25SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 8:26SPEAKER_03: And they'll even support that asset for a long time before they're gonna sell it at a loss.
- 8:31SPEAKER_03: So and most most owners are not syndicators.
- 8:34SPEAKER_03: Syndicators make up a tiny fraction of ownership.
- 8:38SPEAKER_03: When you're in the syndication game, you think that ever syndicators own everything, and it's not true at all.
- 8:43SPEAKER_03: That they barely own anything.
- 8:44SPEAKER_03: Yeah, less than 10%.
- 8:47SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 8:48SPEAKER_02: Well, yeah, I mean, it it's pretty shocking.
- 8:50SPEAKER_02: Well, I'm on I'm on the broker side.
- 8:52SPEAKER_02: I syndicate and I'm a broker.
- 8:53SPEAKER_02: So, you know, when I'm going through like uh CoStar Records and stuff like that, you know, there's so many companies that own like, you know, 5,000 all the way up to 100,000 doors, and you're like, holy moly, that's a lot of doors, you know.
- 9:08SPEAKER_02: Big large institutions that never have to sell.
- 9:12SPEAKER_02: I mean, you know, and it's like, okay, you know, the but the difference is is like you said, people talk about like, you know, BlackRock and all those companies kind of bought at the same time as everybody else, but they have the assets to weather the storm, you know, and sit there and and hammer it out and be like, okay, we're cool.
- 9:29SPEAKER_02: You know, we don't we're not forced to sell just because things kind of go south for a little bit.
- 9:33SPEAKER_02: So so you don't think there's gonna be a massive correction?
- 9:38SPEAKER_02: You think like slow trickle, kind of like those syndicators?
- 9:41SPEAKER_02: You'll I was thinking, you know, you're gonna see little uh little blips of stuff going back to the bank and some good deals showing up on existing assets, but not this, you know.
- 9:53SPEAKER_03: You don't really see those though, because the bank doesn't want to disclose that they loaned to someone that failed.
- 9:58SPEAKER_03: And so they'll quietly put that to someone else.
- 10:02SPEAKER_03: They'll quietly give it to someone else.
- 10:04SPEAKER_03: And a lot of equity was raised on these deals.
- 10:06SPEAKER_03: These most of these deals were not like 90-10 deals.
- 10:09SPEAKER_03: A lot of these deals were 20, 25, 30 percent equity.
- 10:13SPEAKER_03: That's a lot of equity.
- 10:14SPEAKER_03: So the bank can usually sell the asset for the debt amount.
- 10:18SPEAKER_03: Sometimes they'll take a small hit, but they're not gonna disclose that and they want to go and sell it to someone that can immediately come in and buy it.
- 10:26SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you're seeing well, I don't know.
- 10:29SPEAKER_02: I've seen it to where like, you know, the banks, you know, the the syndicator's trying to give it back to the bank, and then the bank's trying to give it back to the syndicator because they're like, yeah, we don't want the we don't want this thing back.
- 10:41SPEAKER_02: You know, it's just just kind of funny, you know, hearing hearing about some of the stuff's going on.
- 10:47SPEAKER_03: So I mean here in here in this region, I only know of one multifamily asset.
- 10:53SPEAKER_03: It's just about 60 units, only one on the whole eastern side of South Dakota that went into foreclosure.
- 11:01SPEAKER_03: And it had nothing to do with with rates.
- 11:04SPEAKER_03: It was all to do with they were doing multiple projects at once.
- 11:07SPEAKER_03: They ran out of money on all their projects.
- 11:09SPEAKER_03: So this one project, they took all the money from that one and put it into the other three so they could at least finish these other three.
- 11:16SPEAKER_03: And then this one just got leveraged up to the hilt because no one was keeping an eye on it.
- 11:22SPEAKER_03: And so that finally went through the foreclosure process, took like three years.
- 11:26SPEAKER_03: And that's the only property I even know of in the whole side eastern South Dakota, side of eastern South Dakota, and I know most properties.
- 11:32SPEAKER_03: Wow.
- 11:33SPEAKER_02: So what what size uh units are you building?
- 11:36SPEAKER_02: You you your apartment complexes are typically pretty big.
- 11:39SPEAKER_02: I mean, they're scaled.
- 11:40SPEAKER_02: I mean, you're looking at a hundred units plus or fifty units plus, or I mean, we have our smallest is 48 units, and okay, that's actually 56 units now.
- 11:51SPEAKER_03: We've increased it a little bit, but so 50 unit plus, and then a hundred two hundred and fifty in one shot is our largest, which is a second phase, so it's technically three fifty, and we got another 150.
- 12:05SPEAKER_03: So our biggest will be 500.
- 12:07SPEAKER_03: Two years from now, our biggest will be 500 units.
- 12:10SPEAKER_03: Our smallest is 50.
- 12:12SPEAKER_03: But the ones that are 50 units, those are usually in smaller communities, and then we will infill around them.
- 12:18SPEAKER_03: So within a one mile radius, there'll be a 200 unit.
- 12:21SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 12:22SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 12:22SPEAKER_02: So um you're probably how many units are you heading towards?
- 12:26SPEAKER_02: You're probably over a thousand, it sounds like pretty much.
- 12:29SPEAKER_03: Yeah, we got like thirteen hundred and fifty that are stabilized.
- 12:32SPEAKER_03: We got another four hundred, over four hundred in develop in current construction, and then we got about a thousand in pre-development.
- 12:41SPEAKER_03: Wow.
- 12:41SPEAKER_03: And then, you know, our schedule counts for probably another two thousand and three more years.
- 12:46SPEAKER_03: So I mean, we'll be in ten with within five years, we should be at five thousand units.
- 12:52SPEAKER_03: Wow.
- 12:53SPEAKER_02: That's uh that's a lofty goal, man.
- 12:55SPEAKER_02: Uh, so what's your uh key to success?
- 12:58SPEAKER_02: Are you wanting to hold on to these long term and just kind of cash flow them and be that guy that just you know holds them forever, or are you eventually wanting to exit?
- 13:06SPEAKER_02: You know, I mean I think my key to success is I don't really care.
- 13:12SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 13:13SPEAKER_03: The Lord takes all my units away tomorrow.
- 13:15SPEAKER_03: I don't really care.
- 13:16SPEAKER_03: Like yeah.
- 13:18SPEAKER_03: That's hard for some people to to understand, but yeah.
- 13:23SPEAKER_03: Like you have such little control in this industry that you can't you just can you just have to do the best you can and you have to move on and you have to learn from whatever mistakes you've made, and you have to you just you gotta get a bunch of really smart people involved to help you.
- 13:40SPEAKER_03: But yeah, that's the main thing is that we just do a project that reduces the risk as much as possible.
- 13:45SPEAKER_03: We go into an area location that has the biggest upside and the least downside, and we put very, very affordable units that anyone can afford to move into and that are desirable for most people to want to live in, and we put we supply that.
- 14:00SPEAKER_03: Now, if the mayo clinic in Rochester shuts down, we have no zero bearing, has zero to do with us.
- 14:06SPEAKER_03: And if it shuts down and the whole town dies, that has nothing like we can't do anything about it.
- 14:11SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so that's that's probably not happening.
- 14:14SPEAKER_02: Uh the Mayo Clinic's been there forever, but it could.
- 14:18SPEAKER_03: It's not gonna happen, but some people put that into the risk assessment, and I say, well, then your your investment's worth zero if that happens.
- 14:24SPEAKER_03: So you want to if that's what you're worried about, you pretty much can't invest anywhere.
- 14:29SPEAKER_03: So you become a non-investor.
- 14:31SPEAKER_03: So but that's the key to success is to, you know, just put it in God's hand and and he will, if he wants you to be successful, I believe you're gonna be.
- 14:39SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 14:42SPEAKER_02: He'll allow us to fail, but you know, it's kind of like you said, it's you know, surrounding yourself with great people and all that, because none of this nobody builds a you know a 200 unit apartment complex by themselves.
- 14:55SPEAKER_02: You know, you're dependent on a lot of other people.
- 14:58SPEAKER_02: So, you know, having that faith in people, God, and everybody around you is important.
- 15:03SPEAKER_02: Um that's I I always like your perspective.
- 15:06SPEAKER_02: And you post a lot of that about that online, you know, with your family and stuff.
- 15:11SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 15:12SPEAKER_02: Um one thing is is uh you you quit drinking altogether.
- 15:16SPEAKER_02: I think it was several years ago, wasn't it?
- 15:19SPEAKER_03: It's almost exactly three years, just over three years ago.
- 15:22SPEAKER_03: It was now it was like the right after the last uh the first football game of the season.
- 15:29SPEAKER_03: So that was it was like August 31st.
- 15:32SPEAKER_02: So I quit drinking uh two years ago, and it was probably one of the best decisions I've ever made.
- 15:37SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 15:38SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, I kind of had some health hiccups, and the doctor said you need to never drink again.
- 15:43SPEAKER_02: Oh wow.
- 15:44SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and um, so I took that advice and they actually told me I could drink again now.
- 15:50SPEAKER_02: They said just really not a lot of it, because the way my heart reacts.
- 15:54SPEAKER_02: They said, you don't need to drink a lot, and I said, I'm not drinking at all, you know.
- 15:58SPEAKER_02: If there's any kind of risk like that, because the temptation to, you know, I don't like the way it made me behave too, you know, the erratic behavior, your relationships, you know, I like to say that was me, but that was me on uh drugs or alcohol, you know.
- 16:14SPEAKER_02: It's just you you react different different situations, your family needs you the next day, so it's like, okay, you need to be able to wake up and be coherent so your your wife and kids or you know, even your animals, you know.
- 16:28SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 16:29SPEAKER_03: So yeah, you're definitely way more in control, and that's probably the biggest benefit I've seen is that you notice when everyone around you is out of control and you're still fully locked on.
- 16:41SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 16:41SPEAKER_02: So um, if you were gonna give somebody advice that, you know, wanted to get started and developing, what would that be?
- 16:48SPEAKER_02: Would it be to sm start?
- 16:50SPEAKER_02: You always hear people say go big, but I kind of think that's a mistake.
- 16:54SPEAKER_02: I think you need to start on smaller projects.
- 16:56SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 16:57SPEAKER_02: Maybe not even like do the whole project yourself, but work on one with somebody, you know?
- 17:02SPEAKER_02: Like come team up with a guy with you and say, hey, I want to help on one.
- 17:05SPEAKER_02: And you know, what's your advice on all that?
- 17:08SPEAKER_03: Well, okay, so it depends on what you want to do.
- 17:10SPEAKER_03: Do you want to actually become an active real estate investor and developer?
- 17:15SPEAKER_03: Or do you just want to own real estate and you have a really good career and you just want to pay less taxes?
- 17:21SPEAKER_03: If so, then you should just if you want to pay less taxes and own real estate, you should invest with me.
- 17:27SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 17:28SPEAKER_03: Or someone like me, you know.
- 17:29SPEAKER_03: Otherwise, you should, if you want to become an active long-term investor, it also wouldn't hurt to invest with someone like me, but you must, that would just be a part of it.
- 17:41SPEAKER_03: You need to go and start doing your own deals.
- 17:44SPEAKER_03: And I I believe you have to be the one that actually does the deal.
- 17:49SPEAKER_03: I think people they think they're gonna learn a whole bunch, but what happens is you just let the guy that knows what they're doing do everything, and you don't really learn anything.
- 18:00SPEAKER_04: Yeah.
- 18:00SPEAKER_03: So yeah, you could do one, oh you could do a deal with somebody and kind of under and kind of get to know it, but you're not really gonna know.
- 18:08SPEAKER_03: And then when you go do your small deal, then you're like, oh, this is why that guy told me not to do.
- 18:15SPEAKER_03: This is exactly why.
- 18:17SPEAKER_03: But there's so many things you gotta learn.
- 18:19SPEAKER_03: So in development, you must start small.
- 18:21SPEAKER_03: So I saw a lot of people start big and in when the syndication boom was going on in 2015 and and after.
- 18:27SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 18:28SPEAKER_03: And I thought, these guys know nothing about real estate.
- 18:31SPEAKER_03: How are they buying real estate?
- 18:32SPEAKER_03: If they can buy real estate, I can also buy big real estate.
- 18:36SPEAKER_03: But then I realized they actually didn't know what they're talking about, and almost all those people's deals have failed because they have no idea what they're doing.
- 18:42SPEAKER_03: They just able to raise some capital.
- 18:44SPEAKER_03: But that's what I say.
- 18:46SPEAKER_03: Do a deal, start small, go with a duplex or a four-plex.
- 18:50SPEAKER_02: Do that same thing, you know, like a six uh four to six units or whatever, you know.
- 18:56SPEAKER_02: And do it all yourself.
- 18:58SPEAKER_03: Do the entire thing yourself.
- 18:59SPEAKER_03: And obviously raise some money for it, learn how to raise capital on the way.
- 19:03SPEAKER_03: But do the entire thing yourself, make all the mistakes, make sure you have more reserves than you need, make sure you have more time than you need for construction, make sure you have more operating reserves after it goes online.
- 19:16SPEAKER_03: Um, make sure you just have plenty of extra money so and prepare for the asset to not cash flow for five years.
- 19:23SPEAKER_03: Do that, and if that goes well and you beat all your overages that you put in there and you do better than the project said, great, now you're ready for the next one, and then double your next one.
- 19:34SPEAKER_03: And then double your next one.
- 19:35SPEAKER_03: So pretty soon you're doing a 20-unit, and then you do a 50 unit, then you do a hundred unit because we'll make it mistakes on those smaller scale projects, it'll hurt, but it won't kill you.
- 19:45SPEAKER_03: If you go first thing off the bat and do a 50-unit project and make a bunch of mistakes, you're gonna bang, you're you're gonna kill yourself.
- 19:51SPEAKER_03: You won't be able to do another project.
- 19:54SPEAKER_02: I think uh a lot of people like say I and I think it's a mistake.
- 19:58SPEAKER_02: And and you see it in in mergers and acquisitions too.
- 20:01SPEAKER_02: They're like, don't go too small, and it's like, well, maybe on that side it makes sense.
- 20:06SPEAKER_02: But you know, I think with the multifamily and stuff like that, if the bigger you go, the wor it the bigger the disaster it can be.
- 20:14SPEAKER_02: And you know, even when you go from like say a four unit to an eight or a sixteen, there's gonna be different mistakes on that 16 unit that that you didn't have on the smaller one.
- 20:26SPEAKER_02: So that by the time you get up to 100 units, you've seen most of the mistakes, you know, to where they're kind of like whittled down.
- 20:33SPEAKER_02: And you will make mistakes.
- 20:35SPEAKER_02: I don't care who you are, you know, it's it's gonna happen.
- 20:37SPEAKER_02: So stuff you have to do.
- 20:39SPEAKER_03: And then your codes, your codes and stuff change as well, too, as you increase the property, and then you run into things that you didn't you had no understanding of because you put you get put into a different category.
- 20:50SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think a lot of it, like, you know, back when the capital raise and you know, the money was flying around is you'd see somebody that like had a doctor spouse or something, like my wife's a doctor, we have good income.
- 21:03SPEAKER_02: Why don't I go try and be a developer?
- 21:05SPEAKER_02: And they're able to to raise a certain amount of money, and then it was just an epic disaster, you know, crash and burn, and then it, you know, it's just uh but if you have a good gig and you're you know making good money and you're looking for tax benefits, I think just being a you know a silent partner is probably the better route.
- 21:26SPEAKER_02: So just kind of interesting what people what things go through people's minds.
- 21:31SPEAKER_02: Every everything is always greener on the always other side, and that will never change, you know.
- 21:37SPEAKER_02: So like you have the doctor sitting at home saying, or or the and my brother's one of them.
- 21:44SPEAKER_02: He he sees me and he sees that I'm self employed and I don't go to work for anybody, and he's a software engineer, and he's like always wanting to quit his job to come do what I do, and I'm like, Chris, it's not that it's not that easy, man.
- 21:56SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 21:56SPEAKER_02: So they don't understand, like it's that there's good and bad.
- 22:00SPEAKER_02: About both, man.
- 22:01SPEAKER_02: So yeah.
- 22:02SPEAKER_02: You know, he you might be better off just investing.
- 22:05SPEAKER_02: So anyway.
- 22:06SPEAKER_02: Um, so how is you know, one thing I see right now is in development, it's a little harder to raise money, and it reminds me of right before the dot-com crash, you know, back in 2000, what was it?
- 22:20SPEAKER_02: 2000 it was the year 2000.
- 22:21SPEAKER_02: Yeah, 2000, 2001, right?
- 22:23SPEAKER_02: That's when the dot com first.
- 22:24SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean, it it was harder, but then you saw the uh dot-com crash.
- 22:28SPEAKER_02: I think there's a lot of I don't know AI, right?
- 22:33SPEAKER_03: The AI bubble is supposed to be similar to that.
- 22:35SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's it it's like history rhymes.
- 22:38SPEAKER_02: I don't think it plays out exactly like that.
- 22:41SPEAKER_02: But I think a lot of the stuff that's been going on is it's all these states are passing reg regulation on data centers, so it's gonna become more and more expensive for these AI companies to operate.
- 22:55SPEAKER_02: Like, for example, in Tennessee, they just passed a law where you know it's$1.5 million per megawatt to build out.
- 23:03SPEAKER_02: So I have a data center site that I'm uh brokering, and if we want to get to 300 megawatts, it's gonna cost 400 million.
- 23:11SPEAKER_02: And this thing is like Wait, that's just for the taxes?
- 23:15SPEAKER_02: Yeah, well, it's it's like TVA passed something.
- 23:18SPEAKER_02: I I I gotta read the whole memo I just got, but eventually the in in everybody's trying all these uh cities, states, and it's every day there's new regulation passed to where it's like gonna be impossible to find data centers, so it's gonna make it more expensive for them to operate.
- 23:36SPEAKER_02: So, how many of these companies are really profitable is my question.
- 23:40SPEAKER_03: There are some that are Are they actually profitable yet?
- 23:43SPEAKER_02: Well, there are some that are undoubtedly profitable, you know, like the bigger ones, but you know, all these smaller ones, some of them are bleeding money.
- 23:51SPEAKER_02: I just think there's gonna be uh some sort of failure and reset to an extent.
- 23:55SPEAKER_03: I thought the only reason that they're they're acting I don't think any of them are actually making a profit.
- 23:59SPEAKER_03: I thought that like so you got Amazon, which is profitable, so it's taking its cash and deploying it into the and same with like Elon company or uh is it grok or is it anthropic?
- 24:12SPEAKER_03: I don't know.
- 24:12SPEAKER_03: But if you look at them, they're actually not generating anything, and AI will just become increasingly more expensive for us to use for them to be profitable.
- 24:21SPEAKER_03: I don't disagree.
- 24:22SPEAKER_02: They're gonna up the fees, people will quit using it.
- 24:24SPEAKER_02: There's it can't stay on the course that it's on.
- 24:27SPEAKER_02: That's all I know.
- 24:27SPEAKER_02: I know like open AI at one point, I researched it about a year ago.
- 24:31SPEAKER_02: They were bleeding through money.
- 24:33SPEAKER_02: I don't want to like state a number, but they were just pouring through money left and right.
- 24:37SPEAKER_02: And it's like every time we hit something on Chat GBT, it like cost a fortune.
- 24:42SPEAKER_02: But you know, what I'm getting at is I think uh, you know, the the harder part about development is you know, the markets, this isn't given investment advice, but the markets never correct themselves.
- 24:54SPEAKER_02: So you go back to the dot-com boom, and it's like then there was a real estate boom because the dot-com bubble finally burst, you know, and then then interest rates finally fell like they needed to, and then people started pouring back into real estate.
- 25:08SPEAKER_02: So, but what I'm getting at is, you know, right now isn't a bad time to invest when people aren't looking, you know, into development and stuff like that, you know, to to transition capital from you know stocks and stuff.
- 25:23SPEAKER_02: I realize when I see Nvidia go on the run that it is, it's not sustainable forever, you know.
- 25:29SPEAKER_02: And I'm like, okay, it's a good time to good time for me to transition from stuff like that, not giving financial advice to everybody, but you know, it's like, okay, we had a good run, you know, it might be time to cash some chips in here.
- 25:45SPEAKER_03: So I mean, most of the stock market's run-up recently is all AI, and this is one reason why they think it's such a bubble.
- 25:52SPEAKER_03: It's because it's all concentrated in the top seven companies or something.
- 25:56SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 25:57SPEAKER_03: And it doesn't really create any value though.
- 25:59SPEAKER_03: So it's kind of like reminds me of Uber.
- 26:01SPEAKER_03: Remember, you could get an Uber for 10 bucks.
- 26:03SPEAKER_03: Now it's like a hundred dollars to Uber anywhere.
- 26:06SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 26:07SPEAKER_03: And so that's what the AI is gonna cost.
- 26:09SPEAKER_03: It's gonna go from 40 bucks to 400 bucks to have your personal AI account.
- 26:14SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 26:15SPEAKER_02: Oh, I don't disagree.
- 26:16SPEAKER_02: You well, the pricing side on ours is unsustainable.
- 26:19SPEAKER_02: I actually paid quite a bit of money to Claude because I had it redesign a bunch of stuff and went through and transferred like, I have like 10 websites and I had it transfer all this, and it's like it hit your limit.
- 26:31SPEAKER_02: So I kept adding$200, and I'm like, this is great, you know.
- 26:35SPEAKER_02: But I transitioned everything and I redesigned all my sites and stuff, and it was like really cool.
- 26:41SPEAKER_03: It was like a big long weekend project, but you know, and then I want to know how much more money did you bring in after you spent all that time on AI?
- 26:51SPEAKER_03: You know what?
- 26:51SPEAKER_02: Well here's here's the thing, I'm findable on AI.
- 26:55SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 26:56SPEAKER_02: I set up my site, and listen to this.
- 26:59SPEAKER_02: I had somebody from Mexico, oddly enough, reach out to me about brokering their site.
- 27:05SPEAKER_02: I've had another uh individual reach out to me about so I set up these AEO pages to where people like reach out to me.
- 27:13SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 27:13SPEAKER_02: So, but I didn't like how those old WordPress sites were like uh the load on it and all that, so I switched it to a static site.
- 27:26SPEAKER_02: Okay, and it's and I'm getting inbound inquiries, so you are nothing has hit yet, but I'll show I can show you that.
- 27:32SPEAKER_03: This is the thing.
- 27:33SPEAKER_03: This is so this is exactly what we what we find.
- 27:36SPEAKER_03: Everything looks better, everything runs better, everything is awesome, but it hasn't transitioned into any additional business.
- 27:46SPEAKER_03: And so we use we use AI all the time, our presentations are better, all this stuff is better, but we still the only way people show up is when you hit the phones, and I think I don't disagree just making your phone, your phone call even more powerful now.
- 28:02SPEAKER_03: That's we get spammed so much.
- 28:05SPEAKER_02: No, I had a networking event and I stood up and I said the same thing.
- 28:09SPEAKER_02: I said I said, yeah, it's great everybody came out, and you probably haven't talked to a real human in three weeks.
- 28:15SPEAKER_02: You know, but I don't disagree though.
- 28:18SPEAKER_02: That human contact is a big deal, but no, I'm I'm kind of like that.
- 28:22SPEAKER_02: I'm like, okay, yeah, it it has made things look better.
- 28:25SPEAKER_02: It makes my site more crawlable, but has it transitioned to dollars?
- 28:29SPEAKER_02: Not quite yet, but it's looking like it it look it's looking like it probably could, though.
- 28:35SPEAKER_03: This is what I'm saying is so in my brother, so my brother uses AI more efficiently than anybody because he does coding.
- 28:42SPEAKER_03: So he went from working on a max of two jobs per day at a time, two jobs at a time.
- 28:49SPEAKER_03: So he would work simultaneously to always be thinking about a job.
- 28:53SPEAKER_03: Now he works on 10 to 12 jobs at one time because they just run, code just runs.
- 28:58SPEAKER_03: And yeah, and then he also doesn't think about the jobs anymore.
- 29:02SPEAKER_03: And he also is not afraid to throw away all the code because he didn't create it.
- 29:06SPEAKER_03: So he says it doesn't matter, he could throw it away, start over.
- 29:10SPEAKER_03: But he's not bringing any more income into his company because his company now just discounts all that work because they're just running it through AI anyway.
- 29:17SPEAKER_03: So now the work is just worth it's not as it's not worth as much.
- 29:21SPEAKER_03: No one gets paid any more money and they're getting 5x as much done.
- 29:24SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 29:25SPEAKER_02: Well, you know, uh the the CEO, Jin Singh of Nvidia, said that.
- 29:30SPEAKER_02: He said he like everybody was like somebody asked him in an interview, I think it was on Fox News, they said, Do you think uh AI is gonna allow people to have more free time?
- 29:40SPEAKER_02: And he said, no, actually they'll be more busy.
- 29:44SPEAKER_03: Totally.
- 29:44SPEAKER_03: And this is I go back to every revolution.
- 29:47SPEAKER_03: So you go back to the farming revolution, then people get they got more busy.
- 29:51SPEAKER_03: Now they're stuck on their farms and they're not nomads anymore.
- 29:54SPEAKER_03: You do the industrial revolution, people got more busy.
- 29:57SPEAKER_03: They're going into factories working more than they were before.
- 30:00SPEAKER_03: And internet email, you're like, oh, I'm going to be, I'll be less busy.
- 30:05SPEAKER_03: No, I can work all the time now because I'm connected everywhere.
- 30:08SPEAKER_03: AI is just another one.
- 30:10SPEAKER_03: Every one of these things has just made us actually more busy, even though we produce more.
- 30:15SPEAKER_02: I think it, yeah, AI is like, oh, yeah, I could just, I can just take care of this task real quick while I'm out with my family at dinner when you need to be at your you need to put it down and be with your family at dinner.
- 30:25SPEAKER_02: But I don't disagree.
- 30:26SPEAKER_02: It's a it's another internet and it's gonna change things, but it's, you know, in good and bad ways it'll change things.
- 30:33SPEAKER_03: So I'm not anti-AI.
- 30:36SPEAKER_03: I just don't think it's gonna take anyone's jobs.
- 30:39SPEAKER_03: And it's just gonna, I mean, it'll just trans everyone will just transition and we'll be even more busy.
- 30:43SPEAKER_02: Yeah, but I I don't disagree.
- 30:45SPEAKER_02: That phone call, and you I talked to some guys that run parking management recently, and they're transitioning, getting away from the robots that answer the phone.
- 30:54SPEAKER_02: They said, you know, we're the only ones that have anybody that actually answers the phone, and people are happier when they actually get to talk to people.
- 31:02SPEAKER_02: I can't stand the robots.
- 31:04SPEAKER_02: You know how many robots I yell at a b a week on the phone?
- 31:07SPEAKER_02: I'm like, I want to talk to a human.
- 31:09SPEAKER_02: Hey, you know.
- 31:10SPEAKER_03: No, I say, what?
- 31:11SPEAKER_03: What?
- 31:11SPEAKER_03: What'd you say, huh?
- 31:13SPEAKER_03: Where are you at?
- 31:13SPEAKER_03: And they came up within like two seconds.
- 31:16SPEAKER_02: No, but I so I recently did a networking event, you know, in Knoxville, and it was like, okay, we're we're transitioning away from the COVID-era Zoom calls and going back to real networking.
- 31:29SPEAKER_02: And I think uh transitioning back to real phone calls where people actually talk on the phone is gonna be a good thing.
- 31:35SPEAKER_02: So, you know, picking up the phone and actually talking to people is a huge deal.
- 31:39SPEAKER_02: But I think capital will transition to normal and get off the high of uh the stock market's gonna run like this forever because it won't.
- 31:48SPEAKER_02: Historically, it never runs straight up.
- 31:50SPEAKER_02: So and it's gone, it's arguably gone straight up for the last two or three years.
- 31:55SPEAKER_03: So, you know, it feels like we've had a pretty good decade, decade and a half since 08 from 2010 to now.
- 32:03SPEAKER_03: Feels like we've had an incredible decade, so it feels like we should be in for a world of pain for a while.
- 32:10SPEAKER_03: I feels like we've been having some pain, although I don't think that pain has actually hit home for anyone yet.
- 32:17SPEAKER_03: I think it's death by a thousand paper cuts.
- 32:20SPEAKER_03: I don't disagree.
- 32:21SPEAKER_03: It feels though the sentiment that I feel out there is that there is pain coming.
- 32:26SPEAKER_03: I could I I hope I'm wrong, but that's that's what I feel.
- 32:29SPEAKER_03: I feel yeah, it's gonna be something's gonna be painful.
- 32:33SPEAKER_02: Not sure what it is or how, but well, like we discussed, none of this is sustainable.
- 32:38SPEAKER_02: Let's uh transition real quick.
- 32:40SPEAKER_02: You know, what are y'all's plans?
- 32:42SPEAKER_02: You mentioned you have a lot of stuff under construction and in pre-development.
- 32:47SPEAKER_02: You know, what are the locations?
- 32:49SPEAKER_02: You know, are you you're mainly doing like class A, or is that class B plus?
- 32:54SPEAKER_03: I To me it's class A because when you walk into the unit, it feels like a Class A unit.
- 32:59SPEAKER_03: You walk, uh, you drive up to your unit, it feels like a class A unit.
- 33:03SPEAKER_03: The amenities are completely stripped out.
- 33:05SPEAKER_03: You don't have garages, underground parking, so it's not class A.
- 33:08SPEAKER_03: It's suburban, so it's not urban, so it's also not class A in that way.
- 33:13SPEAKER_03: But the things that people care most about are Class A.
- 33:16SPEAKER_03: It's just super affordable.
- 33:17SPEAKER_03: Um and we're half the price of the we're half the price on the rent of what a typical class A would be with your gyms and pools and everything.
- 33:26SPEAKER_03: We find that most people don't use those amenities, they're super high maintenance.
- 33:30SPEAKER_03: You have to have a hospitality management degree on site to run those things because otherwise people get pissed off at everything that you do.
- 33:38SPEAKER_03: These are just easy to operate.
- 33:40SPEAKER_03: You're you're not you don't expect much.
- 33:43SPEAKER_03: You just get your unit.
- 33:44SPEAKER_03: That's kind of what you get.
- 33:45SPEAKER_03: You get a nice unit in a safe neighborhood, looks beautiful.
- 33:48SPEAKER_03: I like though we call them workforce housing, we call them attainable housing, we call them sometimes we call them affordable, even though we don't, they're not big A affordable, we don't use any government funding.
- 34:00SPEAKER_03: But depending on what the community wants is how we tailor it.
- 34:03SPEAKER_03: Do they want attainable housing?
- 34:05SPEAKER_03: Do they want workforce housing?
- 34:06SPEAKER_03: Do they want affordable housing?
- 34:08SPEAKER_03: That's what we say.
- 34:08SPEAKER_03: And but it's never Section 8.
- 34:10SPEAKER_03: Um, no, it's none of that stuff.
- 34:12SPEAKER_03: So we don't want to the why the the LigTech or whatever.
- 34:16SPEAKER_03: Yeah, LiteTech is a lot of work, not scalable.
- 34:20SPEAKER_03: Every single project is kind of a one-off.
- 34:22SPEAKER_03: Um, and there's Litech's great.
- 34:24SPEAKER_03: I'm not saying it's bad, but it just doesn't fit our model.
- 34:27SPEAKER_03: And so we want to make it even more affordable without relying on we want no government subsidies.
- 34:33SPEAKER_03: We want to make these so affordable that we never have to bring the government in to help us.
- 34:38SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and so that's the goal is to don't rely on the government for more funding for your project because that's not sustainable, and that just is you're just getting someone else to foot the bill.
- 34:49SPEAKER_03: How do we actually make it more affordable so it's forever affordable?
- 34:54SPEAKER_03: And the other thing that we're looking at is how do we become more modular?
- 34:57SPEAKER_03: How do we so right now we own a wall panel factory that we supply our wall panels, our trusses, our loose lumber?
- 35:07SPEAKER_03: How do we make that even better and more vertically integrated?
- 35:11SPEAKER_03: So we're we hire the electricians, we hire the plumbers, and we're hiring them inside.
- 35:15SPEAKER_03: And so instead of paying a contractor 100 bucks an hour, we pay our own guys 50 bucks an hour.
- 35:20SPEAKER_03: But we have a little better conditions, you know, interior conditions on site, a little more stable work environment.
- 35:26SPEAKER_03: How do we how do we put those savings back into the into the modular?
- 35:31SPEAKER_03: Um, and then we want to deliver these across the nation.
- 35:36SPEAKER_03: So we're in the upper Midwest now.
- 35:38SPEAKER_03: We want to grow and grow.
- 35:38SPEAKER_03: And we so we're five, we're 400 miles away, three, 300 miles away from our home base.
- 35:45SPEAKER_03: That's one step.
- 35:46SPEAKER_03: That's that's a lot harder than 50 miles.
- 35:48SPEAKER_03: So we were first 50, then we were 100, now we're 300, then we'll go 500, and then we'll after that, you know, you go a thousand, and pretty soon you're nationwide.
- 35:57SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 35:58SPEAKER_02: So, you know, the the thing is, is when I see Dustin's uh, I've seen several of your units come online, you know, or you've been out on site doing construction, showing pictures and stuff like that through the years.
- 36:11SPEAKER_02: These really do look like class A.
- 36:13SPEAKER_02: And that's why I was like, are they class A?
- 36:15SPEAKER_02: And they're probably really like class B plus, is what I would say.
- 36:19SPEAKER_02: Um and I I like I had a friend that did uh R V parks, and he's in and you know, I was looking at doing them with them, and he said you have to cut out all the like the pool and all that stuff.
- 36:32SPEAKER_02: He said it sounds great, but it's too expensive and it's too big of a headache.
- 36:38SPEAKER_02: And you know what people really want is like these RV parks and like places with good employment, and they really just want an affordable place to live.
- 36:46SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you know.
- 36:47SPEAKER_02: He said, give them what they want versus you know, getting into all this other stuff.
- 36:52SPEAKER_02: So, you know.
- 36:54SPEAKER_02: The sizzle doesn't really sell anymore.
- 36:57SPEAKER_03: It doesn't sell anymore.
- 37:02SPEAKER_02: You're like, okay, when they look at rents and stuff like that, they're like, okay, I'm going here.
- 37:07SPEAKER_02: Screw the pool.
- 37:08SPEAKER_02: I'll I'll use that like once every three years, and you know, I'm only gonna I might only live here for a year, so what do I need a pool for?
- 37:15SPEAKER_02: So yeah, I don't disagree.
- 37:18SPEAKER_02: Well, um, you know, Dustin, I appreciate you coming on.
- 37:22SPEAKER_02: I don't want to keep you on here.
- 37:24SPEAKER_02: Sorry to get off track and talk about AI, but you know, we all know it is how it all ties in.
- 37:29SPEAKER_02: But you know, Dustin does build beautiful units.
- 37:32SPEAKER_02: I've been following them for years, you know, in his journey and all that.
- 37:36SPEAKER_02: So if you wanted to get a hold of a great developer to invest with, you know, he'd be a really good one.
- 37:41SPEAKER_02: So, you know, doing doing good things, it's like, you know, there's purpose behind it.
- 37:46SPEAKER_02: You know, he's you know, taking care of employees, taking care of community, you know, builds a great product and you know, does what he says he's gonna do.
- 37:54SPEAKER_02: So uh weathered the storm of high interest rates recently.
- 37:58SPEAKER_02: So anyway, what's a what's a good way to get a hold of you, Dustin?
- 38:03SPEAKER_03: Uh I'm on LinkedIn.
- 38:04SPEAKER_03: Easy to find because my name's spelled D-U-S-T-E-N.
- 38:08SPEAKER_03: Dustin Henderson on LinkedIn.
- 38:10SPEAKER_03: I'm the only Dustin with an E that I know of.
- 38:12SPEAKER_03: Uh, and then mailboxmoneyre.com is our website, it has our investor portal, as all the stuff we're doing and our contact information.
- 38:20SPEAKER_02: Awesome, man.
- 38:21SPEAKER_02: Um, I appreciate you coming on.
- 38:23SPEAKER_02: And uh anything else you want to add?
- 38:25SPEAKER_03: No, no.
- 38:27SPEAKER_03: Awesome.
- 38:27SPEAKER_03: I think we covered it.
- 38:28SPEAKER_03: I actually don't mind getting into AI because everyone's so interested in AI these days.
- 38:33SPEAKER_03: Every conference you go to now, 50% of the speakers are AI.
- 38:37SPEAKER_03: We had to talk about it.
- 38:39SPEAKER_03: That's how you know we're in a bubble because one year ago you'd have like one speaker, and now 50% of them talk about AI.
- 38:46SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 38:48SPEAKER_02: Now 50%.
- 38:50SPEAKER_02: They should just get rid of all the other speakers and just do one AI guy.
- 38:54SPEAKER_02: Anyway, I appreciate you coming on, man.
- 38:57SPEAKER_02: Looking forward to staying in touch.