Latest / Brighter Path: Data, Marketing, Entertainment, and Storytelling / What Won D23? Plus This Week’s Biggest Box Office, Streaming & Franchise Moves

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What Won D23? Plus This Week’s Biggest Box Office, Streaming & Franchise Moves · Brighter Path: Data, Marketing, Entertainment, and Storytelling

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  D23 generated a huge amount of attention this weekend, but the
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  announcement that gets the loudest reaction is not always
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  the one that creates the most value.
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  What I wanted to understand was what actually moved audiences
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  after the reveal. Did people buy a ticket, search
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  for a character, look for a product, open a game, plan a
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  trip, or move deeper into the franchise?
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  Because that tells us much more about commercial impact than
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  views, likes, or the size of the reaction inside the room.
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  And when you look at D23 that way, Avengers Doomsday was the
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  clearest winner. Disney combined new footage,
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  talent amplification, and something most announcements did
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  not have, an immediate purchase opportunity.
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  Audiences could move from seeing Doomsday to buying tickets while
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  the excitement was still fresh, with Robert Downey Junior, Chris
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  Evans and the wider Marvel ecosystem reinforcing the
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  moment. That gave Doomsday the shortest
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  distance between attention and transaction at D23.
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  And I think that is important because entertainment marketing
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  often creates a huge spike and then asks audiences to remember
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  that excitement months later. Doomsday gave people something
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  to do with it immediately. X-Men created a completely
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  different kind of audience movement.
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  D23 essentially reset what audiences knew about the movie
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  by revealing the new generation, including Sadie Sync as Jean
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  Grey, Kit Connor as Cyclops, Christopher Abbott as Professor
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  X, and Adam Driver among the new cast.
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  Before D23, there was already curiosity, but afterward there
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  was a much more specific movie for audiences to begin
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  evaluating. That also made Sadie Sink the
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  biggest talent mover of the event.
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  Robert Downey Junior obviously has much greater absolute
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  awareness, but Sadie gained something that can be more
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  meaningful when we look at incremental movement.
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  Her commercial identity changed. She went from being part of the
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  conversation surrounding Spider Man Brand New Day to becoming
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  one of the faces of Marvel's new X-Men generation.
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  That is why talent movement should not always be measured by
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  who generated the largest volume of conversation.
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  Sometimes the bigger signal is how much an event changes what
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  that person means commercially. Tegancroft was another really
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  good example. Tangled came into D23 with
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  enormous familiarity, but also a lot of uncertainty around what
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  the live action movie would actually feel like.
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  Until now, much of the conversation had been casting
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  nostalgia and speculation. The first footage finally gave
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  audiences the ability to evaluate Tegan as Rapunzel, Milo
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  Manheim as Flynn Ryder, and Katherine Hahn as Mother Gothel
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  inside the actual world of the movie.
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  That reduced some of the uncertainty around whether
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  Tangled could translate into live action and made it one of
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  the sleeper audience movers of the weekend.
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  For Tegan specifically, the lift was even more meaningful because
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  she started from a much smaller baseline than most of the talent
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  appearing at D23. Frozen 3 was operating from
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  almost the opposite position. It was one of the biggest
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  moments in the room, with new animation, story information,
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  and music from Kristen Bell, Idina Menzel and Josh Gad.
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  But Frozen already starts with one of the largest audience
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  spaces in Disney's portfolio. That means huge attention does
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  not automatically equal the biggest incremental movement.
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  D23 clearly accelerated Frozen, but audiences already knew they
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  cared about the franchise. X-Men and Tangled had more room
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  for the event to materially change how people understood
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  those projects. That distinction between
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  absolute scale and incremental movement is something I think
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  matters well beyond D23A trailer can generate hundreds of
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  millions of views because the franchise is already enormous,
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  while a smaller reveal can create a much more meaningful
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  shift in future demand. Then we get to Cars, which may
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  have been the most interesting commercial franchise story of
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  the entire weekend. There was no new Cars movie
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  driving the conversation. And yet, Cars came out of D23
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  with Formula One, Mattel, Disney Store Commerce, and two new
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  Magic Kingdom attractions within Piston Peak all working around
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  the franchise. That puts CARS simultaneously
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  into Motorsports, toys, retail and destination experiences.
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  And I think this is where Disney's model becomes
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  especially interesting. A mature franchise does not have
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  to disappear between theatrical releases if the company can keep
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  finding relevant places for the audience to engage with it.
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  Formula One gives Cars access to a global sports audience.
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  Mattel creates a physical product layer.
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  Disney Store creates commerce. Magic Kingdom turns the
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  franchise into a destination. None of those require another
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  movie to be in theaters right now.
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  Cars therefore, became a very good example of how franchise
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  value can grow independently of the traditional content
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  calendar. The Experiences Showcase made
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  this even more visible. Tomorrowland was probably the
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  biggest Enterprise announcement because Disney is reworking an
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  entire foundational Disneyland land rather than adding another
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  isolated attraction that has a commercial life measured in
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  years through visitation, hotels, food, merchandise and
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  repeat trips. Then you had Figment and Dream
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  Finder, which I think was one of the best sleeper stories of the
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  weekend. Their absolute audience is
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  obviously smaller than Marvel or Frozen, but parks fandom can
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  behave remarkably similar to entertainment fandom.
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  There is nostalgia collecting, character affinity, and a
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  willingness to plan physical experiences around those
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  properties. Bringing Dream Finder back can
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  therefore create demand well beyond the attraction itself.
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  It can move Figment merchandise, collectibles, Epcot, visitation,
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  and the broader relationship audiences have with that
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  character. Avengers Campus takes the
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  ecosystem idea even further. Disney is bringing Robert Downey
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  Junior and other Marvel actors into the attractions, which
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  creates a stronger connection between what audiences see on
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  screen and what they experience physically inside the park.
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  The franchise can move from movie to talent to attraction to
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  destination to merchandise without the consumer really
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  leaving the same ecosystem. Villains Land, Coco and the
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  other Experiences announcements work on similar timelines.
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  These are franchise investments that can generate consumer
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  behavior long after the original D23 social conversation has
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  disappeared. Then there was Star Wars
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  connecting smugglers run with Fortnite, which may be one of
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  the more forward-looking ideas announced this weekend.
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  We have seen entertainment brands appear inside Fortnite
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  many times. The interesting part here is
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  connecting physical and digital behavior.
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  Someone can experience Star Wars inside a Disney park and then
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  continue that relationship through Fortnite after leaving.
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  That creates the possibility that the park visit is no longer
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  the end of the experience. It becomes another entry point
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  into an ongoing digital relationship.
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  Kingdom Hearts offers a different version of that same
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  idea. The new anime gives the
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  franchise a way to reach audiences outside gaming, while
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  Kingdom Hearts 4 bringing Coco into the game moves Disney
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  content in the opposite direction. 1 franchise moves
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  from gaming towards streaming, while another Disney property
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  moves from film into interactive entertainment.
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  Different executions, but the same strategic idea give
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  audiences more than one way into the franchise and more reasons
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  to stay connected. And when I put the entire D23
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  weekend together, that is the part I find most interesting.
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  Disney's advantage is not only the size of Marvel, Frozen, Star
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  Wars, Cars or its other franchises.
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  It is how many places audience interest can go after somebody
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  starts caring. Doomsday can move someone toward
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  a movie ticket. Cars can move someone into
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  Formula One, Mattel or Magic Kingdom.
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  Star Wars can move somebody from a theme park attraction into
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  Fortnite. Kingdom Hearts can move
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  audiences between gaming and streaming.
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  Figment can turn nostalgia into merchandise.
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  And another Epcot visit. The strongest Moments at D23
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  gave people a next behavior. Watch, buy, play, collect,
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  visit. That is the difference between
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  generating attention and building an ecosystem around
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  that attention. And I think that is probably the
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  most useful way to evaluate what actually won D23.
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  Now, moving into the rest of the week, the box office gave us
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  another good example of why audience behavior matters more
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  than looking at the number alone.
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  The end of Oak Street and Paw Patrol, the Dino movie, finished
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  almost neck and neck, but they reached those results through
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  completely different audiences. Oak St. opened around $21
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  million, close to the $19 million expectation I shared
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  last week. For an original movie without
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  sequel urgency or a large built in fandom, that is a solid
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  result. The movie also skewed far more
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  adult than you might expect from something being marketed around
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  dinosaurs. Men over 25 represented almost
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  half of the audience, women over 25 made-up another significant
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  share, and kids under 12 were a relatively small part of the
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  opening. So the dinosaurs created the
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  hook. But suspense, theatrical scale,
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  the Amblin style, adventure, tone and talent, including Anne
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  Hathaway, were doing much of the conversion work.
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  Paw Patrol reached roughly the same box office level through a
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  very different path. Its audience was heavily
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  concentrated among parents and younger children, which shows
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  that these movies were never really fighting for exactly the
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  same consumer, even though both use dinosaurs in their
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  marketing. Paw Patrol also demonstrates why
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  theatrical performance alone can underestimate franchise value.
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  The retail behavior is incredibly clear.
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  Parents already know what they can buy, from vehicles and plush
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  to role play products, so the movie can refresh demand across
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  the larger ecosystem, even with a relatively modest theatrical
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  ceiling. That becomes important when we
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  look at upcoming family titles such as The Cat in the Hat and
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  Coco Melon. Both have strong recognition and
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  natural merchandise behaviors, but the challenge is convincing
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  families that those familiar brands also deserve a theatrical
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  outing. Recognition can sell a toy
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  without necessarily selling 4 movie tickets at the top of the
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  market. Spider Man Brand New Day and the
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  Odyssey continued operating on another scale entirely.
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  Spider Man crossed $2 billion worldwide at extraordinary
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  speed, while The Odyssey crossed 500 million domestically and
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  became the highest grossing IMAX release ever.
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  That gives us a theatrical market where giant event films
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  are still pushing the ceiling, while smaller originals and
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  family films can work when their expectations match the audience
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  they can realistically reach. Streaming told a different story
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  this week. The Last House generated more
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  than 50 million hours watched globally and reached number one
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  across more than 80 countries despite poor reviews.
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  That is another reminder that streaming demand can behave very
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  differently from theatrical demand.
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  Once a title generates enough initial curiosity, the
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  recommendation engine and platform distribution can become
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  their own marketing multiplier. You could see similar strength
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  around My Life with The Walter Boys, Reacher, House of the
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  Dragon Shards and The Devil Wears Prada 2 on streaming.
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  Getting that first click can sometimes matter much more than
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  getting universal approval, and even that first click is
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  increasingly being influenced outside the app itself.
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  New Looper Insights data showed the FIFA World Cup dominating
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  connected TV storefronts during July.
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  Platforms are increasingly competing for the home screen,
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  recommendation modules, and hero placements before audiences have
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  even decided what service they want to open.
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  Live sports makes that especially powerful because the
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  urgency is already built into the viewing behavior.
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  Music gave us another example of audience movement between
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  ecosystems. Tame Impala's Loser entered the
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  top ten with nearly 25,000,000 streams as interest accelerated
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  around its use in Spider Man Brand New Day, A major
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  entertainment moment can essentially give an existing
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  song another release cycle by putting it in front of a new
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  audience at exactly the right cultural moment, and some of
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  this week's biggest franchise moves followed the same pattern
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  we saw at D23. Squish Mellows is heading into
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  movies after building fandom through products first.
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  Mattel is increasing its ownership of the gaming
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  relationship instead of relying primarily on outside developers.
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  Webtoon is expanding stories with billions of views into
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  games and animation. Top Gun and Battlefield 6 works
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  because aerial combat makes sense inside the behavior of the
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  game. Pokémon and Tony's takes one of
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  the world's most screen connected franchises into screen
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  free storytelling for younger audiences.
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  And partnerships involving Sonic, McLaren, Kuromi, Cat's
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  Eye, Harry Potter, and others continue showing how franchises
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  are moving through sport, fashion, food, gaming, and
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  retail. Which brings me back to D23 and
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  the idea that runs through almost everything we saw this
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  week. Attention still matters.
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  Awareness still matters, reach still matters, but those are the
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  beginning of the story. I increasingly want to know what
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  audiences do after the attention arrives.
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  Did they buy the ticket? Did they watch the episode?
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  Did they search for the song? Did they buy the product?
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  Did they open the game? Did they plan the trip?
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  Did they come back again? Because that is where attention
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  starts turning into franchise value, and D 23 may have given
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  us one of the clearest examples yet of what that looks like when
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  a company has enough places for the audience to go next.