Latest / The Complete Agent - The Podcast For Premium Real Estate Agents / 123. Why Most Estate Agents Are Getting The Market Completely Wrong
Transcript
- Dave Warburton: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Complete Agent Podcast, where each week we get together to talk all things estate agency. My name is Dave Warburton, and today I'm joined only by Mr. James Kendall. Ian is where is Ian today? He's out. I think he's got something on with he's got family. Yeah, he's got he has got he is going on holiday tomorrow. He's got family commitment. as I think Michelle has. So it's just myself and JK, no special guests. So JK: So no, he's probably going on holiday, mate, to be fair. Dave Warburton: Probably you might want to switch off now. We'll see. We'll see how this episode goes. JK: Why don't we just add in some impressions of Michelle and Ian while we're on here? Oh, good week lads. Great week lads. I know where I was from that time. Dave Warburton: That's that's is that Michelle when she wakes up? JK: Yeah. Dave Warburton: no, so hopefully what we're just gonna obviously run through the market conditions, talk about some of our experiences in the last few weeks, I think, and how we're finding things, and hopefully, hopefully you will get some value out of that. But the first things first, as always, JK, how the hell has your week been? JK: Yeah, all right, mate, to be fair, been busy with valuations and signups. We've got quite a lot actually coming on in our Goldust sluts in the in that region. So for anyone that's new listening, just wonder what I just did there. The Goldust region is something I personally call and founded between 500 and a million quid. That range there, the sweet spot, the 2 % fees for the homes that tend to turn over very, very nicely. So today is it today? We've got to take on today. Nice next week. Next Thursday. Next Thursday. I'm getting my dates mixed up. Today we haven't got a shoot. We a shoot yesterday. Actually at an old barn. So that was nice. And then we've got one tomorrow. Another Gold Dust House 750. We've got another one on Monday. Dave Warburton: Thursday, say mate. Thursday. JK: It's going to like 475 really nice sort of 1930s herringbone floor kind of vibe. Semi with a nice big garden. Speaking of Michelle, we've actually got Michelle coming to the office next week as well to come and do some big training day with the team, which I'm looking forward to. Had a new start yesterday as well, actually quite a lot happening actually. A farmhouse take on next Wednesday, taking on a nice Victorian place next Thursday. So yeah, I mean, there's this, to be honest, there's quite a lot in the diary at the moment. We're packing it out with take ons. Sales haven't been too great in the last week, but what we have been doing, I do think there will be value on the pod is price realignments and changing up the prices. And that's really started to generate some interest getting those price realignments. And I think if you're listening to this, you've got to, and we'll unpack it later on. but having conversations with people. also, I you said it a couple of weeks ago, Dave, and I kind of took note on it where the new homes that you're going to, you really are going in hard on price because when it comes on the market, you don't want to be going, all right, great. We've launched. We've had two viewings at the start. You you've done a pre-launch strategy. It's not going anywhere. And we're waiting another eight weeks to reduce by 50 grand. Like we're just ripping the bandaid off early. and having that conversation upfront. The pre launch is great for that. But yeah, listen, let's unpack that later. Tell me how your week's been made. me tell you, you negotiating seven offers this week? Dave Warburton: Let me just count up the offers. I've got it on my screen in front of me. It's one, two, three, four, five, six. Seven offers. No, there's there's not there's not seven offers. There's actually eight offers that we are negotiating across five houses, JK. So I'll be a bit more specific there. JK: Heh. Yeah. I know seven people still waiting for a call back from the last four weeks. Is that what it is? Dave Warburton: I I I'll be honest, I don't even know who they are. I don't know who these people are, so forget that. no, so we we are having, you know, things are good where we are at the moment. As I say to everybody, you know, people always keep saying to me, How is the market? And I always say to them at the moment, if anyone's telling you the market is terrible, I just don't bel I don't believe them. I think they are just using it as an excuse. it is it's quieter in certain areas. What th what I would say, JK, a bad market is something like a recession market where people can't afford to buy. But the reality is banks are lending, that all the statistical data shows you that buyers are buying. We are just transitioning into a new market, and in many, many areas there is a an element of the unknown. And you've got to try and factor that in. You've nailed it a few times. Talking about trying to get people on different pricing bandings and stuff like that. but this is not a market for testing the water. It just isn't. You know, if you test the water in a falling market, the likelihood is you're gonna give away equity by waiting to drop your price. And I can the the the good thing I would say about this market as well, JK, where we've had some properties reduce significantly before they sell, is that they are brilliant test cases to show clients. And I can think of well, I can think of Three really good examples right now where you know telling stories in valuations really really helps. the the the first one in particular, you know, this is a property that started life at 850. in fact, it was at 900,000. 900,000. And the guy, you know, as a business owner, I always look at this and say, Is somebody motivated to sell this property at some point in the future? You know, you take a commercial decision. And he he definitely was. He'd already bought his second home. It was going through. He didn't want to sit on this property and have it rented out or anything like that. It was always going to be sold. and all the data told me last year, eight hundred to eight hundred and fifty, and we had that conversation. And he said, Oof, right. Well, the lady across the road, who owns an estate agency, suggested it was worth 900 plus. he didn't want to use her, he felt there was a conflict of interests and stuff. he said I'd right, I'd like to start it off as over nine. And I was just right, I'm not sure about this at all. I don't think it's gonna go, but it's something that he needed to get out of his system, which he did. He dropped it to eight fifty after about three or four months. he then dropped it to eight hundred and it sold last week for seven hundred and sixty thousand. Which is a massive, massive drop. And honestly, I think I feel that if he'd gone on the market of the numbers that we'd properly discussed last year, he would have sold that house. It's not a great result. On on the surface, for Burton James, that might look like a bit of a a bad result in the end, because it was, you know, on the market at nine. It's been agreed at a s like 760,000 pounds. It's a huge drop. but JK: Wow. Dave Warburton: Ultimately, I look at it and I take a business decision and I say it wasn't my price anyway. And what it has also done is given me an absolutely perfect test case to show people. A great example of waiting and waiting and waiting and giving away equity. Because I am absolutely convinced he would have sold that for 800 plus had he done it right away last year. the other thing is the power of the pre-launch, JK. obviously the way we do things, obviously going out to valuations at the moment and talking about JK: Yeah. Dave Warburton: not worrying about the price, seeing what the feedback is before you actually go to right move. We've obviously got a specific strategy that we we share with our members and and launch to the market. And this is this is just brilliant for homeowners because it gives them an opportunity to see what's happening. And we've had two cases in the last month, which I think have been really, really good. One where all the data suggested £550,000, they'd had agents tell them £600,000, and JK: Mm. Dave Warburton: We did a proper pre-launch, had tens of thousands of impressions on their advert. And the feedback overwhelmingly was that 550 was probably punching in this market. So we went back to that particular client before we were launched to Right Move and just said, look, you know, this is the feedback. We've had 50,000 or so impressions on it, which we had. And we showed them sort of the video reception and things like that. And JK: Hmm. Dave Warburton: You now need to decide what what is your priority. Is it getting to this new destination that you go into, which they want to be in in September? Or is it maybe an extra £25,000? Is that going to significantly alter your life? Only you will know. You let me know what you want to do. I'm happy to try it at five fifty, but the markets suggested that that's stretched. Following a twenty four hour sort of thought process, they said, No, I think I think we will be a bit more keen. And we did offers over five. I tied that up last night at five fifteen. JK: Mm. Dave Warburton: Which is market value. and then the other one, it went the other way. You know, we had a we had another property that's been one of our most sex successful pre-launches ever. the the the market suggested on this particular house it was seven hundred thousand pounds. we did a pre launch on it. It was unbelievable the response. We did loads of viewings before it went to right move. And when we actually got ready to go to launch to right move, it was a it was the opposite conversation. We were saying, Do you know what? JK: Yeah. Dave Warburton: I think this house is gonna be a bit low on the on the seven hundred side. So let's let's push it a little bit. And we did. We pushed it to seven fifty and it sold at seven thirty five. So the homeowners are delighted. And it's it's just all about managing the expectations, JK. I I just find that buyers are out there, certainly where we are, up north in abundance, it's about managing the pricing and managing the strategy. And one of the members, I'll not name her, she probably won't be bothered, but you you'll probably know who it is in the group, has had some amazing success over the last couple of weeks just getting the price points right, being quite aggressive. She's taken one or two, I think, off other agents where they've not been able to have these. What do you mean? No. No Yeah, it's it's she she wasn't threatening to beat the owner up or anything like that. But aggressive with the pricing strategy because she knows it's it's the right thing. And she's reported this week that she's done like two or three different JK: Aggressive, probably the wrong word. Proactive. Aggressive, I'm like, get your price right mate, I'll fill you in. Dave Warburton: open houses almost on these three different homes with 15, 20 view ins, well over asking price. It it just works. If you if you can get the strategy right, and I've spoken many times in the past sort of 12, 18, 24 months about a recession like feel to the market. And it still does have that. And it's it's not by way of numbers, it's by way of buyer behavior. So I think that if people can adopt that mindset and understand exactly what's happening, then they'll have a lot more success when it comes to listing properties at the right price and getting homeowners to reduce. And I've just realized that you asked me how my week's been, and I've just gone off on a bit of a tangent. Yeah. But no, so yeah, lots of offers. We've done f five take ons, I think. Five take ons. We've got loads in photography as well. to be honest, we are crazy, crazy busy at the moment and doing our best. JK: Yeah. And now it's time to wrap up the podcast. Yeah, excellent. Dave Warburton: To manage the workload. you know, I can't get evaluation in for a couple of weeks. Take ons same. so yeah, it's it's all it's all good. But the the overall sort of message for me really and how I'm feeling about things is, you know, one of positivity and I just think I just think it's all about managing expectations, JK. JK: Just on the subject of the market, I was chatting to Gates the other day, and he was going through the data, which you might be surprised to learn. And he said that withdrawals are down massively. And the sentiment, I think, seems to be in the market at the moment is that people are getting real with the market, rather than just taking it off and trying again, because I think the stat is what 40 % of withdrawn stock comes back on the market within two years. And I think those same old people that are withdrawing and coming back on and withdrawing and coming back on are kind of breaking the cycle now and going actually, you know, how long are we going to keep withdrawing and trying to get this price that doesn't exist? Just to go back on what you were saying about valuations, I think the agents that winning in this market and again, my success rate has been phenomenal recently with because I've been doing all the vows in my business recently and our success rate and conversion rates through the roof. at moment. And I'm just finding the conversations I'm having with people when I go out into the living room, it's very much like, it's always a strategy meeting. It's never evaluation. It's not, you know, what I think it's worth. Not what they think it's worth. It's very much all about the strategy. What does the market data say? And as you said before countless times, mate, people want to know you an expert. They want to know you know what you're talking about. And our direct mail landed. mean, there was a post on LinkedIn the other day that Gatesy tagged us in. Obviously you wouldn't know because you don't use LinkedIn. But there was a reply on there about direct mail. And I was just, I just sort of add my two pence in about direct mail because I mean, I have had what three or four appraisals this week where the valuations have come as a result of the direct mail. And basically the conversations have gone along the lines of, know, what, how was the market? What's the market doing? One guy said that, you know, he loves the kind of, suppose, the tell it as it is nature of the letters. He said, you hear a lot of things from a lot of people. get the usual flyers through the door. We can sell your house for open 25 hours a day, eight days a week, free valuation, free floor plan, free accompanied viewings. And then you get other people that. try and sell you the dream they had that last time when they moved and he said just love the nature of this is actually what's going on. This is what it means. And then when he asked me the question about how the how the market was basically a carbon copy of what you just said, maybe now is not the time to test the price. This is where the data says the this was a state home really nice sort of neo Georgian style, I guess you could call it. 3,000 odd square feet, really good looking, loads of curb appeal. I think it would sell really, really well. I thought it would probably start with an eight. The one that just sold was very, very late sevens, but I think their plots better, their kitchen's better. So to quote one of my really good friends in the North, that valuation part is subjective. And he's, yeah, mean, which he, again, Dave Warburton: Very subjective. JK: You you talk about when people nod along, you know, when you did your pitching piece at the last mastermind and you said, you know, how people nod along. I've really started noticing how certain things that you say. you know, because I can remember doing valuations as little as maybe four five years ago, where sometimes you'd be a bit of a standoff with the sellers where you're going, well, I think it's worth this. Dave Warburton: Yeah. JK: You know, I sell a lot of million pound houses. I think your house is worth X. And then I go, well, actually we think it's worth X. Another agent said X and the whole valuation process and the way that I've now had to relearn and rethink about how I do things is completely changing. It's not even a conversation anymore. And I even address it in the room and say, it's not me and you. It's not me versus you. It's me and you versus the market. Dave Warburton: Yeah, a hundred percent. JK: This is what we're going to do and this is what the market says. Dave Warburton: Yeah, I mean, it this is exactly it. And and as as soon as you can master the art of taking it away from opinions, opinion-based valuations and and what I mean by that is the opinion of yourself and the opinion of the homeowner, because those are the two that don't matter. There's a figure that there's a figure that they might want. There's a figure that actually they might need, but they're both irrelevant. It it's what the market dictates. It's as simple as that. And JK: Don't be afraid to walk away either. That's the other thing I was going to say is that when I do a evaluation, if you want to call it evaluation, I mean, let's call it what it is, right? You know, you have the conversation with people and you know, their expectations maybe they need 1.4, 1.5 to, know, stick a certain amount in the bank and make their next move or, you know, it doesn't need to be that sort of level, even if you're talking 800 grand, right? If you're talking 700, 800 grand, we need 800 so we can buy for 550. and we can realize our plans. You know, if the data is looking more like seven to seven to five, I would be saying to them, you know, maybe you need to realign your expectations, or maybe now is not a good time to move. You know what, what, and it's all about finding, we always talk about it, that why, what is their motivation to move? Is there why realistic as well? And sometimes, you know, you can win the best business by unpacking. the seller's actual plans and saying, look, you know, is that realistic? You want to buy X, Y and Z. You you want, you want to trade, you want the same house basically with, with 200 grand in the bank. Well, don't we all, you know, have you heard of Bolton, madam? But, but jokes aside, it's about unpacking that. Why, sorry, Dave, you were just about to say something. Dave Warburton: Ha ha ha. No, I wasn't. I was just taking a sip of Diet Coke. JK: And it, reminds this podcast is sponsored by Diet Coke. Quote Dave 10 for a discount. It's not, but yeah. One day. Dave Warburton: I do I mean look, everything I'm saying is is correct. I I just think that you y y you you need to understand what it is that they are trying to achieve ultimately. And and this is I think the mistake and god s so many agents do it. They just they're going in there with best price guide comparables for homes and telling them all about themselves, giving an opinion on value and losing the owner. and I think educating the owner is the key thing. I don't you know, particularly at the mid to higher end. I d I mean, I don't want to discredit the lower end of the market. I you know, I've got a business that operates in it, but they just they just want the truth. And they they want to know that somebody who is handling their sale knows what they're talking about. and then it's up to them to make informed decisions. I had a s I had a seller review with someone yesterday. His house is above what I think it's worth. or certainly again, that's a bit of a contradiction, isn't it? It's worth what the market dictates. I I think it's above that. What he's listed it out. It is an unbelievable finish, this house. And he is on one of the best roads. But at the moment the market doesn't agree. And the conversation we had yesterday was, well, I have sold one around the corner that's a similar size. It might not be as desirable, but it's sold for two hundred thousand pounds less than what you're asking. You know, what is your priority? Do you need to get this away? You it's an empty house. you're on the other side of the world. What do you want to do with it? What's what's JK: Hmm Dave Warburton: And his his mindset is I just I just I've put so much into it. I do not want to sell it for that kind of level. Certainly not at the moment. So the conversation is geared towards, well, you know, if you wait, you might lose value. If you wait, who knows? It might rise in value. We don't know. The barrel of oil came down recently, isn't it? Last few days. We're back to pre-war values, interest rates, a few of the lenders ad adjusted straightaway. We might just have a purple patch and he finds the right buyer. I don't know. But you might also want JK: Mm. I will say you might not. Dave Warburton: Renting it. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. That's this is the all the unknown. We can only deal with what we're dealing with today. And right now the market doesn't agree. You know, so if if it doesn't work for you, have you considered renting it perhaps for six to twelve months? And that's a new conversation that we've started. So it all comes down to them, but they they just need to know they're in good hands and that you're going to tell them the truth and a align, I think just align that valuation, you know. If if if you're coming in with your data value and it's five or ten percent above. JK: Yeah. Dave Warburton: Don't pop open the champagne, if it's five to ten percent below, don't be disheartened. The the market dictates. It's all about how we promote the salient assets of your home to the target audience, you know, that that we think will buy it. JK: So we're going to be writing, obviously, our more quarterly market update very, very soon. What do you think are going to be the bits that we're going to be in? I mean, we kind of briefly touched on this the other day about what we're thinking it's going to be in terms of where we're writing and what we're writing about. you know, we've got obviously leadership change that's happening. There's, I mean, these are all things that you need to talk about in the living room, right? So When I was there yesterday, we were talking about this stamp duty land tax reform to do with the percentage of the land value as a yearly, as a yearly, what was I going to say? Yeah, as a yearly cost, a council tax cost. And I mean, there's different ways that you can unpack it and there's different ways I think it could have an effect on the market. And the first thing is, you know, Dave Warburton: Yeah, yeah, yeah. JK: let's look at the positives from all angles. the positives from all angles are for first time buyers, it's less equity upfront. First time buyers are always the people that this again, this might be slightly controversial, first time, everyone's like, it's really hard for people to get on the ladder these days, it? If you had a pound for every time you heard that. But I actually don't think if I'm honest, the lower end of the market is the problem at the moment, where I think biggest challenge in the market is the mid-market. where I am, that is the gold dust between 500 and a million, because those are the people that have been hit the hardest. So they're trying to upsize, they need the extra bedroom, they want to move because the kids are getting older, they want a bit more space around them. if they're buying, let's say that they bought their 500k house or 600k house in 2020, And, you know, they were had a 400 grand mortgage, they're paying a grand a month. Whereas now, you know, with interest rates, the way they are, they're paying double that, sometimes two and a half times that. you know, a thousand pound becomes two and a half grand. Then you've got the compound inflation. So aggregated inflation at like 38 % now over the last six years. So to contextualize that. know, if you go into the supermarket trying to feed a family of four, you know, back in 2020, you probably feed a family for you know, 70 80 quid in Aldi, you know, 100 quid in Marks and Sparks. Whereas now again, you could probably double that if if not more fuels more expensive, electricity is more expensive, you know, everything's just just gone up. So I do feel like there's a big barrier with that stamp duty. So if you're looking to go from 600 to 800, there's another 30, 40 K that you've got to find cash that you can't mortgage. I do feel like that barrier to entry would definitely help on that because 30, 40 grand is new kitchen, it's a new bathroom, it's moving fees, it's cash that is tied up in equity that could be utilized for better things for the sort of broader economic picture. The other thing as well is from a positive spin from the housing market, perhaps not so positive for the people that only sorts of homes, but I've seen the argument about people in Blackpool, for example, that are in houses, I don't know, 350 grand on higher council tax rates. So somebody in Blackpool could be in a house at 350k and pay in two and a half grand a year. And somebody can be, you know, in London in a high, not on a high rise, but in a one bedroom apartment, it's worth 1.6 million and on band a paying, you know, 1800 quid a year, for example. I mean, I don't know the rates in those areas, but I just saw that's an example I saw online. And if those people are then hit with a yearly charge, I mean, that's the extreme example, but I do think. the upper end. those generational homes where people have lived in them for 80 years and you've got Ethel rattling around in the sort three and a half, four million pound house that you know, really should move. But you know, hasn't necessarily got the desire to move because she's always been there. It was all of a sudden hit with an eight grand a year additional bill and she doesn't really want to pay. That's gonna almost force their hand to move. And those bigger homes are then going to be unlocked for people to move in the market and there's going to be more people moving in the market. What's your view on that? Dave Warburton: Yeah, I I think I think you're probably right. I mean I've thought I mean with s with stamp duty and things like that, I've always thought it needs reform anyway. I think it will will help to get the market moving. It's a massive consideration for people, isn't it, when when they're buying homes. b I mean, even the the second a lot of the stuff people we deal with at the top end of the market, as you know, JK, will have second home stamp duty as well and they factor that in when they buy in. but I mean If if we're talking about sort of content of the letter and what's affecting the market and all that sort of stuff, it's just to me, it's just the usual stuff and a lot of it's noise. You know, in interest rates are still historically low. Historically low. The cost of moving is a problem for people, of course. Sorry, the cost of living is a problem for people. Yes, everything that you've just said is valid, and the and costs are rising. So it's something that we need to be aware of, but It's no different. There's there's always something, whether it's stamp duty changes, whether it's a new government, Andy Burnham coming in, whether it's a World Cup, Wimbledon, you know, it we're coming up to that season now, aren't Where where estate agents will be saying your house is not selling 'cause Wimbledon's on. You know, it there's always something. And the reality is, unless I mean I'm I'm gonna caveat this in a minute, but unless there is a major recession from JK: Yeah. Dave Warburton: Poor financial decisions and a bit of a financial crash, the market will will always move. And the fluctuation in the number of sales and values, etc., will be up and down always. But the but the buyers are out there. So I think people, I think homeowners just need to know what is affecting buyers' decisions. So, you know, we'll be focusing on the fact that. you know, in intro you know, the the Middle East has caused a bit of a confidence problem. It has. There's no question about that, because interest rates became a bit more expensive over the last few months. But the outlook is a little bit brighter, particularly as a barrel of oil has just come down. And immediately in the same week, a few of them the major lenders started shifting their interest rates and they came down a little bit. But it you know, there's there's quite a bit of confidence there. JK: Yeah. Dave Warburton: Think obviously you know the the leadership change and the government that everybody's had enough of is again more noise. But we know as estate agents it does impact activity because we've seen it so many times. Like when we we saw it last time, what was it last year? We had the the budget coming up, yeah, and it did it slowed right down. The market did slow down leading up to it, but guess what? Properties were still selling. JK: Mm. budget. Yeah. Dave Warburton: but it they did slow down and then we had the interest rate drop at the end of the year. We came back in January and it was absolutely buzzing, one of the busiest markets we've had for years, January and February. And then Donald Trump entered the mix end of February and it slowed down again. You know, so it it's just peaks and troughs that you've got to manage. And if you choose to sell in this market, you you you've got to choose to sell in the conditions that are sorry, you've got to choose a strategy for the market that you're in. JK: Yeah. Dave Warburton: And and I think that's always the message. So it's just about delivering it's not about predicting the future, it's about delivering what's happening right now and what might impact someone's move and their their decision to buy. JK: Well, you say to people, not your time in the market. you can't time the market, it's your time in the market. if you are looking to move now and you're exiting the market, then there's an argument to say that you really want to wait for a rise in hot market. Now, is that going to be in a year's time? Is it going to be in three months time? Is it going to be in five years time? The point is, nobody knows. But when that market does come, you need to be ready. to strike if you're exiting the market, but you just don't know when that's going to be. You know, also equally, you know, if you end up waiting forever, you could wait for that hot market to happen. Prices could drop, let's say hypermoney, they won't, but prices could drop 20 % in the meantime, then a hot market comes along, which causes the prices to rise, rise, I can't speak, prices to rise back up to where they were after you've been waiting for five years, you know, so I think the message I say to a lot of people is, that, you know, no one lives forever. And some are quite a sound, quite morbid thing. But at of the day, let's get on with your life plans, you know, and it really resonated. won a listing the other day, because A, they're really impressed by the pre-launch strategy and the technique and the data valuation, etc. But I think they were just impressed with how candid I was. And then, you because they were like, you know, should we keep hold of the house? You know, should we rent it for a little while and wait until market conditions improve? And so we've actually just bought another house elsewhere. So you're buying in this market already. And you just said to yourself, you're getting a good deal. You know, if the market then drops, hypothetically, you you rent the house out and the market drops by 10 % in six months. You know, then you decide that actually, you know, you could do a claim in that stamp duty back on the next house, like you've already missed that boat. So really, what you need to do now is get your house on, and we need to sell your house. And this is how we're going to do it. And the data kind of suggests it's going to be at this sort of level. But what we can do is with the prelaunch strategy, we can test it before we go to Rightmove and see where it sits within the market, and then we can call it. yeah, I mean, to be honest, and so the other thing that we're doing as well at the moment, just to add a little bit more value is Dave Warburton: Mm. JK: We're doing viewings on shoot days as well. I think you've done a few of those as well. Where we've got, because it takes us a little while to get them to market. You know, it's going to be at least a week and a half, two weeks sometimes to get some places to market. Getting viewings to your database. So, you know, this is coming on the market for more information, get in touch. And then a little broadcast message goes out or WhatsApp messages goes out or, just working with good buyers. And then we're doing viewings on the day and it's all about that perception, isn't it, to sellers as well. You know, we've had a, we've not even done a pre-launch. That hasn't been filmed yet, but already people are coming around and a guy I went to yesterday, he said, the reason you're here is A, because of your letter. I like your letter. He goes, but I can see that you're doing more like, cause I've been watching the social media preview tours. And that was kind of the catalyst. And this is quite a new thing for us. That was a catalyst for him ringing us because he said, there was on a market with ironically with one of our main competitors before when, when they sold their last house eight years ago. And he said, it felt very much like they put it on right move and they sent a photographer around. No one came to the house, did the floor plan and they just kind of waited for it to sell. Sometimes they have the odd call, oh, sorry, we're a bit busy today. Can you show them around? And he just said that I just got a good vibe. when I said it, one of the first questions he asked me, said, you know, if we do decide we want to make this move, how long is your contract? And I said, it's well, we work on a role in 14 days. We charge an upfront fee and says, well, do you charge the upfront fee after every time the contract rises? No, no, no, no, no, it's all just, it doesn't really scratch the surface, to be honest, but it's just a commitment fee to to go to the market, it's going to cost us three and half, 4k to get you marketed. And it's just a small commitment fee because of the level of effort we go to and also the fact that you're not tied in. Anyway, he was really impressed. And I think that's one in the bag when the time's right for them. You know, just having those, it's been a better agent, you know, you can talk about, you know, ethics and this, that and the other, but just, I feel now, with everything we do in TCA, things that I picked up from you and Ian, and I'm sure, you know, there's been things that we've picked up from each other, vice versa. I just feel like I'm top of my game at the moment in terms of, know, I'm a professional agent. know the data. I know what to tell, people is, is, is sort of the best advice. I know how to extract their work out of them. And yeah, I just feel like I'm in a good place at the moment. Dave Warburton: Yeah, and and you can tell. I mean, I th I think you just said something there and it's so simple. Just be a be a good agent. And and what that means to me is I think you need to understand your local market inside out and you know, understand what the market is actually doing in your local postcode area. So the the news will tell you something different to what your micro postcode might be. So where I live in Bolton, very big town, and overall it might look like property prices have actually gone up over the last twelve months. And that's what the general public will think. And when you go to their house, they might have read a report that says, Bolton's gone up, hasn't it? But actually I'm in Europe a postcode, BL six four, which is one of the worst affected postcodes in Greater Manchester. And they Yeah, that as well. JK: You're going to say one of the worst post codes in Manchester. Dave Warburton: no, it's it's not actually it's a lovely area, but it has been one of the worst affected areas in Greater Manchester and most people I'm meeting, pretty much all people I'm meeting who live in this postcode have no idea. Have no idea. So so you need to. That's it. So understand your local market. Be honest about the local market, understand the demographic of buyer for your local market. And articulate this to your to your homeowner. And if and if they want to listen to you, great, you'll have some success and work with them. If they don't want to listen to you, it's usually a red flag. and for me, that's what it's all about, JK. You know, being being personable, being honest, and being knowledgeable. And if you can get those things right, then you'll you'll be a good agent. But you've got you've you've got to get the first bit right. You've got to know your market. You've got to know your local market. And JK: 100%. Dave Warburton: And you've got you you can't be afraid to just tell people. I went to I went to evaluation yesterday. but just about gold dust. It's a it's a 450,000 pound townhouse, lovely house. Next door is on the market at 425,000. It's been rented out, garden's not great, not great, well, not very well presented. That's probably got a late three in front of it. This one I've got, all the data's like 425. 450 would be a win, an absolute win. and when I revealed the market valuation, what the market dictates, they both looked at each other and started nodding. And I said, Right, okay, what what were your what were your hopes and dreams for this property? She said, Well, yeah, that's to be honest, before we started all this, we thought four fifty, maybe a little bit less. And I Yeah, four fifty would be punching. But do you mind me asking what the sort of in joke is? They were both laughing at each other. JK: Mm. Dave Warburton: And the the previous agent who'd been who's quite local and knows the market, or so should know the market, was was telling him it's five hundred and twenty five thousand. It I mean, it's just miles off. I just don't there's no there's absolutely no explanation for where that number comes from. But this particular agent is very, very well known in the area. they are very local to the area. And on the back of presenting data, all I've done is really backed up what they thought as well. You know, they have got a little bit of a handle on the market. They've not been wowed by somebody telling them something too much. They appreciate the honesty. They've got plans. And it's i they're important plans. You know, the the the it's unfortunate circumstances where these this couple have found themselves and they need to sell this house. And they've got somebody in there going in there telling them the house is possibly worth seventy five thousand to a hundred thousand pounds more than it is. JK: Mm-hmm. Dave Warburton: And and to me that's negligent. What if these this this couple take that advice, go and speak to their financial advisor, do a load of sums, think about their move that they need to make, and then go on the market and sit there for six, twelve, eighteen months, having to make more mortgage payments, council tax payments, completely, completely blindsided and end up having to totally restructure their lives and moves over the fact that somebody just didn't bother doing the homework and didn't understand the market. I think it's really poor. So just just be a good agent. Understand your local market. Tell people about it and be a good marketeer. JK: Yeah, as simple as that really, but just be a good agent. No, could you just contextualize it just very quickly before we wrap things up? Can you imagine going to like a brain surgeon and you know, saying, right, brilliant, no, brain surgery underway, you know, what my chances? Yeah, yeah, yeah, pretty good. Yeah, pretty good. Yeah, no worries. And so, you know, how does this how does this process work? Well, you know, we just open you up, cut a few bits and pieces out and then we saw you back up. That that is, you the level and we're talking about someone's most valuable tax free asset. And, you know, if you went if you contextualize and I sometimes say that to sellers, you know, I use brain the brain surgery analogy sometimes and say, you know, there's brain surgeons, I mean, you know, no disrespect to brain cells, I'm sure there's no brain surgeons out there like that. And not in this country anyway. But that is kind of almost that sometimes a lot of sellers treat their equity with a huge lack of respect. just looking for that sometimes just searching for the cheapest fee. And the cheapest fee can often be the most expensive, because you just don't end up with the right result. As your lady found out, so you use it over your gentleman, so I found out with, you know, the other valuation at 900k. That's where I think it should be because this again, opinions, data doesn't care about opinions. And here he is later on. you know, 40k plus down because of somebody else's opinion. So the data is the data. Opinions are just exactly what they say they are. And hopefully this has been a valuable weekly podcast and we will look forward to seeing you next week. Anything else? Dave Warburton: Before we go, but before we go, England won last night, two one, Mexico on Monday early hours, what are your predictions for that game and the rest of the tournament? JK: I did indeed. My predictions for that game is that we will probably end up losing. I've got to be honest. Based on the result in the last game. Well, having said that, I can just see so many people turning off now, by the way. But anyway, it doesn't matter. We're having fun. My prediction is I think he needs to sort out the right back role. I don't think Esri Konzer should be anywhere near centre back. I think Esri Konzer, if he's going to be in the back line, needs to be right back. Mark Gay, John Stones, centre back. Nico Reilly, again, they've got three Man City players at the back there, all used to playing with each other, all used to communicating, although Mark Gaye is relatively new. And then you can put Rice and Anderson in front. Anderson didn't have a great game the other night, but he's still pretty solid. Then Bellingham goes in front. Then I have to say, think obviously Harry has to start up top. And I mean, for me, again, this would be controversial. I'm sure I get lots of hate mail for this, but Bukai Osaka is miles clear of Noni Madueki. Noni Madueki, is the English Timo Werner. Like he can run and literally run to the byline, not take his man on and then just pass back. It just frustrates me. Marcus Rashford didn't have an amazing game, but at least he's trying to make things happen. At he's trying to beat his man. Dave Warburton: I think I do think Anthony Gordon started the first two games and didn't do very well, came on last night and did really well. I I have to say I possibly would start Gordon over Rashford, only because Ratch Rashford stretched his defences. So later in the game, I think Rashford would be a better option. you know, you'd you'd hate to have him running at you the way he does and running in behind. so maybe that. I hear what you're saying Madawake, but again, quite controversial. I just don't think Saka is fit. It's just he looked there was one when he'd just come on yesterday, I don't whether you remember it, but the ball was launched over to him, quite a routine ball to control. It just bent for a throw in and then they called that hydration rate. You know, I he's he's not he's not at it. And so many times over the years, you know, you you'll think back to the when Beckham did his meta tarcel and Rooney did the same and we rushed them back and they just had crap tournaments. and what what I would credit Tuchel with is that he's not tried to put JK: Nah, it's not. Yeah, yeah. I saw that. Yeah, yeah. Dave Warburton: square pegs in round holes, he's just picking people on form. I just think he's made a couple of errors with the selection. For me, Harry Maguire should be there. Not just there, he should be starting every game. I'm I'm a United fan. I'm I don't think Maguire is the best defender in the league by any stretch of the imagination. But he's he's he's experienced at international level. He's a good player. He's reliable. He's fit. And I think he would be he would have been brilliant. And I I just there must be something with Trent. I know he's not the greatest defender, but his delivery is unbelievable. JK: Same. Yeah. Yeah. Dave Warburton: And I can't believe we now don't have a a a follow up right back, a backup right back. It's just strange. Strange for me. But JK: No. Yeah, I must admit, Harry McGuire definitely should have been on the plane in my opinion, regardless of what you think about him in the league. I don't think Jed Spence should be anywhere near the plane, especially based on last night. You know, he just does not at the level. I'd have had Luke Shaw and played him right back over Jed Spence, I've got to be honest. Dave Warburton: No, he's not. He's not. Yeah. Well, this is the funny thing. I mean, you you've got I mean Reese James on his days probably the best right back in the country. But when when Thomas Tuchel said after the game like no one saw that coming, Reese James getting injured, I'm thinking he's the most injury trombone right back I've ever seen. It's unbelievable. He's JK: I think we all did. Yeah, I love Reese like he's my captain, but I just yeah, he's he's made of glass, unfortunately. Dave Warburton: He is. He absolutely is. And d you know, y everybody saw that coming. and Luke Shaw has had his best season in the United shirt. He's pretty much played. I think he played every game. so he was on form. So I don't know why he didn't go really personally. I do like Nico Riley, but defensively I think Shaw's a bit better. this is the T C A podcast, if you still listen to it, by the way. Just a bit of the World Cup. No, sorry. but no, I think JK: Mm. This is not the Gary Neville podcast. This is not Gary Neville and Alan Shearer talking. Who do you see winning it? So just to cap off, who wins the tournament? Dave Warburton: Well mm Do you know what, right? Before the tournament started, I said I think there might be a surprise winner this year. And at the moment you'd go, Well, the surprise package might be Mexico. I just thought climate, all that sort of stuff. I felt I just had a feeling for it. And then you see people like Germany going out. be interesting to see how Spain get on later, Holland are out, but the I I don't didn't expect them to do much anyway. But JK: Mm. Dave Warburton: You know, France obviously are just absolutely unbelievable and and they they've adapted really well. Their front three is unreal. They they've got you know, they've got a JK: I'll be honest, you say that like that, like you say, their front three is unreal. I do feel like they're they're they're fragile at the back. Dave Warburton: You can get at them, but it's if you can get the ball off them. That I think that's the problem. And and if you Right, so this this so let let's have a look at this. Michael Elise up against Nico Riley defensively. And then on the other side you've got Mbappe going up against what who? We've got no one at the minute. Possibly Declan Rice. But he's absolutely rapid. So it's d it's difficult to say. JK: Michael Alise, by the way. What a player. Well, I think it's got to be Declan as we concert in realistically, isn't it? It's got to be concert. I reckon I reckon because to obviously I know too well from when he was at Chelsea. I have a feeling if we do end up playing France and if you played France in the final, I reckon we would go 352. Dave Warburton: Well, yeah, about Maybe we'll have to wait and see. I I mean, I I think if we get past Mexico on Monday morning, I think we I I yeah, I think that's the biggest stumbling block. I think we get to the final 'cause I think we've got Brazil after that, if they get through. And I don't that Brazil are not Brazil. You know, w not they're not Brazil. No. No. Not at all. No. We we I think we beat Brazil and JK: which we probably won't, but yeah. Yeah. No, we're not talking about Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Rivaldo. You know, it's not the Roberto Carlos era, it? Dave Warburton: And therefore we get to the final. I just don't think we'll have enough to beat France. So I would say, and my my prediction is probably I'd like to say it's gonna be a France England final just because I'm patriotic, but I am worried about Monday's game and I've got a feeling Mexico might do us. If they do, I think it's a Mexico France final that France will win. I think that's something about Mexico, we'll see. but yeah, that's my prediction. Thank you for everybody for listening to the last ten minutes. JK: Yeah. Yeah. This is the overlap podcast, the complete overlap podcast with Gary Neville and Gary Lineker. Thank you. They have yet just Nick Luntley listening going. Yeah, come on the shelves. Yeah. Right. Dave Warburton: You know loads of people have switched off anyway, it's just me and you. I was just gonna say, Nick Wokley's still Cheers for listening, Nick. Yeah. how did Chelsea how did Chelsea do this this season, Nick? Yeah, you you went quiet again, mate. You went quiet again. JK: Yeah, really good. Just as well as Man United did. Anyway. Dave Warburton: A lot better than I did. My my father in law is a U United f sorry, a Chelsea fan. He bet me at the start of the season that Chelsea would finish higher a hundred pounds and that dropped in my account just at the end of the season there. So shout out to Chelsea, thank you very much. JK: Right, we'll see you all next week if you're still listening and we look forward to it. Dave Warburton: Cheers guys.