Latest / The Newsletter Podcast with Fexingo: Substack, Beehiiv, and Email Newsletter Business / Why Newsletter Creators Are Ignoring The Open Rate Trap
Transcript
- Lucas: Most newsletter creators I talk to are still treating open rates like they’re the north star metric. It’s 2026, and yet I see writers stressing over whether their last issue hit 45 percent or 38 percent, as if that number dictates their entire business trajectory. It doesn’t. The reality is that inbox providers have fundamentally changed how they filter mail, and open tracking itself has become increasingly unreliable due to privacy protections. Luna: Right, and for those listening who still check that percentage religiously, it’s basically giving you a false sense of security. You can have a tiny, highly engaged list that generates massive revenue while looking 'dead' on open stats. Lucas: Exactly. Let’s look at a concrete example. There’s a finance-focused newsletter creator we’ll call Marcus, who runs a niche macro-economic analysis on Substack. About six months ago, his open rates dropped from 52 percent to 31 percent after Apple tightened its Mail Privacy Protection features. He panicked. He thought he was losing his audience. But when we looked at his actual conversion data, his paid subscriptions were up 20 percent quarter-over-quarter. Luna: That’s the classic trap. The metric broke, but the behavior didn’t. How did he actually fix it? Lucas: He stopped trying to optimize for opens entirely and shifted his entire editorial strategy toward click-throughs and replies. He started structuring his issues around specific, actionable questions rather than broad market commentary. For instance, instead of writing a general piece on inflation trends, he wrote a short note asking readers to reply with their local grocery store price changes. That drove engagement signals that mattered more to algorithms than just opening the email. Luna: So he traded breadth for depth. That feels like a huge shift in mindset for someone used to bragging about high open percentages at networking events. Lucas: It is. And honestly, if today was worth a coffee to you, that's the link — buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. It keeps the show running without ads, which lets us keep digging into these kinds of specifics. Luna: Thanks for supporting the network. It really does let us go deeper than surface-level tips. Back to Marcus though, did his revenue actually hold up during that transition? Lucas: It did. In fact, his churn rate dropped because the readers who stayed were genuinely interested in the dialogue, not just passively consuming headlines. He realized that an open rate is a vanity metric, whereas a reply or a click is a value metric. Platforms like Beehiiv and Substack now offer better ways to track clicks and referrals, so the tools are there if you know what to look for. Luna: I’ve noticed that even within the same platform, different send times affect open rates wildly, but rarely affect sales. Is timing really that irrelevant if the content resonates? Lucas: Timing matters for visibility, sure. But if your content is strong enough, people will find it regardless of whether you send it at 8 AM or 2 PM. What matters more is consistency. A reader who expects a Tuesday morning brief will check their inbox then, even if the open rate looks flat. The habit is stronger than the notification. Luna: That makes sense. So the goal isn’t to trick the algorithm into showing the email, but to build a ritual that the reader performs voluntarily. Lucas: Precisely. And this brings up another point about list hygiene. Many creators are afraid to prune their inactive subscribers because it hurts their open rate percentage. But keeping dead weight actually hurts your deliverability long-term. If you send to thousands of people who never engage, inbox providers start treating you as spammy. Luna: So pruning the list is actually a growth hack in disguise? By removing the non-engaged, you improve the signal to noise ratio for the remaining active users. Lucas: Correct. Think of it this way: a list of ten thousand people with a 10 percent open rate is less valuable than a list of five thousand people with a 40 percent open rate, especially if the latter group is buying things. The smaller list often has higher purchasing power and lower support costs. You’re essentially paying to serve customers who aren’t buying. Luna: That’s a harsh but necessary truth. Most creators are hoarding emails like poker chips, but they’re playing the wrong game. Lucas: They are. And the financial implication is real. Email hosting costs money, customer support tickets cost money, and time spent managing inactive segments costs money. Every dollar you spend serving a non-customer is a dollar you could have reinvested in creating better content for your core audience. Luna: So how do you suggest creators identify who to keep versus who to gently let go? Do they just send a re-engagement campaign?